reports
- Caroline Gulliver
Market share wins and cyclical upside appeal
Kingfisher is primed, ready for a recovery in “big-ticket” spending. However, management’s understandably cautious guidance range for FY26E Adj. PBT has led the stock to give up its YTD gains. We believe this enhances Kingfisher’s value attractions. Kingfisher’s FY25 results illustrated that management’s strategy to grow trade penetration and e-commerce sales is driving market share gains in the UK & Ireland, France and Poland. Over the next three years we forecast c.36% growth in Adj. PBT and...
- Chris Wickham
Europe well poised to enhance growth
In Ultimate Products plc’s FY2025 H1 results, organic European sales growth was offset by a setback in the UK. The coincidence of higher shipping costs with lower sales prompted a fall in profits. However, a combination of substantial growth headroom in Europe and the potential for both Salter and Beldray (around 60% of group sales) to benefit from their re-brands is reassuring for future growth. We make no changes to our expectations for sales in FY2025, which implies a return to growth in th...
- Caroline Gulliver
5* service drives 5* growth above expectations
AO has ended FY25E on a high with Adj. PBT rising c.30% (c.9% above consensus expectations), driven by its continuing commitment to excellent customer service. We anticipate AO’s investments in its proposition, Five Star membership club, market-leading delivery offer and recycling facilities will lead to significant profit and cashflow potential which we think is materially under-valued. Despite the macro cost-headwinds in FY26E, we forecast a 20% CAGR in Adj. PBT FY25E-FY28E which we think is...
- Caroline Gulliver
Kingfisher - "Home attraction; cyclical upside; cash rewards" (initiat...
Kingfisher is an industry-leading home improvement retailer that is primed, ready for a recovery in “big-ticket” spending. We review management’s strategy to grow sales and profit margins in the medium term. We believe that Kingfisher’s resilience in the UK is due to the successful execution of its expansion strategy into trade, online and smaller stores (among other things). By serving more customers, in more convenient ways, Kingfisher has grown UK market share and we anticipate the roll out ...
- James Tetley
Positive FY24 outturn, return of strategic M&A
Restore’s FY24 results confirm a period of strong delivery against financial and strategic priorities. Group revenue was stable year on year at £275m and adjusted PBT increased by 14% to £34.4m, a shade ahead of our forecast, driven by good progress on margins. Our underlying forecasts are unchanged, anticipating further progress towards the 20% medium term operating margin target. Restore has also returned to the acquisition trail this morning with the £33m acquisition of Synertec, a market l...
- Mike Jeremy
Q1 25 results: transition towards a new platform
For the three months to 31 December 24 (Q1 25) Benchmark Holdings reported a 30%YoY decline in revenue to £17.7m (currency adjusted, -25%YoY) arising from a 16%YoY decline in the contribution from Advanced Nutrition to £16.1m, and £1.6m from Health operations. The Q1 (adj.) EBITDA loss was £(0.2)m (Q1 24 £3.5m profit on a like-for-like basis). The Group expects regulatory approval leading to completion of the disposal (for an aggregate £260m) of the Genetics business by the end of March and subs...
- Paul Bryant
AUM fall as expected and profits seen holding up
Ahead of its AGM, Impax has confirmed AUM of £28.5bn on 28 Feb 25. This is close to our expectations as on 31 Dec 24 AUM stood at £34.1bn, and we already knew that the termination of a £5.1bn James’s Place mandate would impact the current quarter (Q2 of FY25). We expect AUM to jump again soon by c. £1.3bn once the Sky Harbor acquisition closes. At the same time Impax reported an acceleration of the efficiency programme. Over 30 roles have been cut since 1 Oct 24 (c. 10% of headcount). This redu...
- Mike Jeremy
Milestone poultry vaccine submission
Eco Animal Health reports that it has submitted a key Market Authorisation Application (MAA) to the European Medicines Agency (EMA), with supporting documentation, for its ECOVAXXIN®MS, Mycoplasma synoviae, vaccine. This represents an important step towards commercialisation for ECOVAXXIN®MS, one of nine major new vaccines under development. This is a process which we expect to be replicated and as CEO David Hallas notes, this “represents a pivotal moment for ECO”. Significantly, the Group conti...
- Caroline Gulliver
Resilient, undervalued, and growing
Begbies Traynor has confirmed financial performance in 3Q25 was as expected and that FY25E will extend its track record for strong financial growth. We forecast 11% revenue growth and a high 15% Adjusted PBT margin. The macro-economic environment remains supportive for Begbies and the group’s expansion into property advisory gives momentum which we believe is undervalued, trading on only c.9x calendar ‘25 PER. Today’s trading update confirms that “both divisions have been consistent with the Bo...
- James Tetley
Transformational land sale to eliminate debt
Springfield has announced interims this morning, which are in line with expectations. The more significant news is a profitable land sale, with the Group selling 2,480 plots to Barratt Redrow for £64.2m. This triggers a material upgrade to revenue and profit expectations in the current year and will eliminate net debt in FY27, as proceeds are received in four instalments. The land sale will complete by 31 May 2025, with the cash consideration of £64.2m being paid in four tranches over the next...
- David O'Brien
A resilient update that stands out from the crowd
The key takeaway from the trading update for H1 ’25 was a solid trading performance, despite a challenging market environment. We remain encouraged by the static guidance at the adj. PBT level of £3m for FY25, highlighting an improvement in operational efficiency, combined with higher average fee rates. Contract NFI declined 1% yoy, with increased summer holidays and a late return to work in January modestly offsetting the growth in contractor numbers and higher salaries. Although permanent NFI...
- James Tetley
Divestment complete, refocused to enhance growth
Hercules has completed the transformational divestment of its Suction Excavators business. This transaction was trailed in January as management made the strategic decision to focus on high growth opportunities within the Labour Supply business, particularly across the UK infrastructure sector. The Suction Excavators business has been sold to SNC Holdings (NW) limited for a total cash consideration of £2.4m. The transaction will materially reduce the Company’s debt and lease liabilities by c. £...
- Toby Thorrington
Trading slower to pick up in Q4
The material AMEY contract came on stream as planned but best expectations for H2 have been undone by a continuing weak macro-economic background. We have reduced our core hire estimates by c.8% at the EBITDA level for FY25E. This still infers progress versus H224 and is significantly above H125, albeit not with the momentum previously envisaged. Post the trading update, Speedy is trading on a 40% NAV discount and a c.13% dividend yield. Our end FY25E NAV is c.4% lower (at 32.4p per share) and ...
- Chris Wickham
European growth offset by UK sluggishness
UP released a trading statement today, ahead of schedule. FY2025 H1 half sales decreased by 6% to £79.4m as lower UK sales offset a useful 12% advance in International (mainly European) business. The profit margin impact of these weaker than expected sales and high shipping costs prompt us to cut our full year FY2025 EBITDA forecasts from £21m to £15m. However, UP’s order book position is stronger, which augurs positively going into the second half of the financial year despite some end-period ...
- David O'Brien
A positive end to the year bodes well
In the latest trading update from Strix Group management has reported that it remains comfortably within the previous guidance for FY24 of £18m-£19m at constant exchange rates (CER) and ahead of consensus estimates. December proved better than initially anticipated, which followed a challenging period from the start of Q3, particularly in its higher margin regulated kettle control markets in the UK and Germany. Q4 benefitted from a combination of product launches / new contracts within all three...
- Mike Jeremy
COO joins Mpac for the next phase of growth
Mpac has announced three senior management appointments, including the appointment of a Chief Operating Officer who will join the Group on 27 January 2025. These appointments align the Group structure with the five ‘strategic pillars’ that Mpac has previously set out: ‘Going for growth’, ‘Outstanding customer service’, ‘Operational excellence’, ‘Innovation’, and ‘People’. Following the acquisitions of CSi Palletising and BCA in 2024, the appointments establish the management structure required...
- Mike Jeremy
FY24 trading update: a transformational year
In a Trading Update (unaudited) for the year to 31 December 2024, Mpac Group reports performance in line with market expectations, with FY24 (adj.) PBT of £10.5m, and a substantial H2 uplift above H1, backed by improved project margins and operational efficiency. The Group expects to report record levels of revenue in FY24 with (adj.) PBT above the £10.0m mark for the first time. Our estimates indicate H2 (adj.) PBIT of £6.2m compared to £4.0m recorded in H1. The combination of continued firm ...
- Toby Thorrington
Good FY24 progress, despite variable end markets
Hunting has reaffirmed that FY24 EBITDA will be in line with October’s revised US$123m-126m guidance, the midpoint of which represents c.22% y-o-y progress. As previously noted, the OCTG and Subsea product groups have delivered strong performances while Hunting Titan/Perforating Systems (PS) has had to contend with depressed North American onshore activity levels. Management has again raised year end net cash guidance (and for the third time during FY24) to US$100m-105m driven by successful shi...
- James Tetley
Strong FY24 results, earnings momentum building
Hercules’ FY24 results confirm another record year, with revenue now over £100m as the impressive growth trajectory continues. The results are ahead of expectations, particularly at the PBT and earnings level. The planned divestment of the Suction Excavators business will allow the Group to focus on its core, capital light businesses, which have significant organic growth potential, demonstrated by our upgraded forecasts for FY25 and FY26. With earnings momentum building, Hercules’ valuation l...
- Paul Bryant
Q3 AUM +5%, forecasts up on performance fee jump
AUM grew £1.1bn or 4.9% over Q3 of FY25 (Oct 24 - Dec 24) to £23.8bn. This was on the back of a strong investment performance, contributing +£1.47bn despite a Dec 24 market pullback, and modest outflows of £0.26bn, mostly in Oct 24 when equity funds saw widespread outflows ahead of the UK budget. Net flows were positive over the nine months of FY25-to-date (+£0.21bn), and in calendar-2024, Polar was a standout leader among London-listed peers in attracting and retaining AUM (see page 2). The For...
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