Report
Pierre Tegner ...
  • Pierre-Adrien Fraisse

ODDO : Choix restreints entre faiblesse du T1, retour du M&A … et risque pétrole

Dans un contexte M&A inédit, le T1 2026 devrait être un retour à la réalité. Il sera soit très faible (Beiersdorf, Henkel, Danone, Nestlé, Pernod Ricard, Diageo) soit fragile vis-à-vis des attentes annuelles de lfl (L’Oréal, PUIG, Unilever, Campari). Rémy Cointreau bénéficiera de facteurs techniques (comparaison et CNY) qui pourraient entretenir les espoirs d’inflexion dans les spiritueux. Mais le T3 2025/26 de Pernod Ricard montre que la visibilité reste faible. Enfin, les cours du pétrole représentent un risque majeur d’inflation via les oléagineux (huile de palme) ; ce qui est sous-estimé, selon nous, pour les groupes de HPC (Henkel, Unilever). Nos recommandations fondamentales de LT restent inchangées. Face à une visibilité et lisibilité dégradées, nous privilégions Galderma et PUIG (Surperformance) et pour du très court terme Campari (Neutre) sur la base d’une approche multicritère (momentum, M&A, risque inflation, fondamentaux).
Underlyings
Beiersdorf AG

Beiersdorf manufactures and distributes consumer goods. Co. operates in two business segments: consumer, which is Co.'s main business that focuses on the skin and body care markets, with products including NIVEA's Deodorant Invisible for Black & White, NIVEA Deodorant Stress Protect, NIVEA In-Shower Body Lotion, NIVEA Cellular Anti-Age face care, and Eucerin's VOLUME-FILLER; and tesa, which develops, produces, and markets self-adhesive products and system solutions for industry, craft businesses, and consumers. In the electrical industry, the tesa business segment's adhesive systems are used in mobile devices such as smartphones, tablet personal computers, and MP3 players.

Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG

Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprungli is a holding company based in Switzerland. Co. and its subsidiaries manufacture and sell premium chocolate products. Co.'s products are sold under the brand names: Lindt, Ghirardelli, Caffarel, Hofbauer and Kufferle. Worldwide, Co. maintains eight manufacturing plants (six in Europe and two in the United States) and sells mainly in countries within Europe and the NAFTA countries.

Danone SA

Danone is engaged in activities in the global food and beverages industry. Co. operates in four markets: Fresh Dairy Products (Co. produces and sells yogurts, fermented dairy products and other fresh dairy products); Waters (Co. produces and sells natural waters as well as flavored and vitamin-enriched waters products); Early Life Nutrition (Co. produces baby formula, milk-and fruit-based desserts, cereals, small pots of baby food and ready-made baby food); and Medical Nutrition (Co. develops adult and pediatric clinical nutrition products to be taken orally, or through a catheter in the event of malnutrition related to illness or other causes).

Davide Campari-Milano N.V.

Diageo plc

Diageo is a premium drinks business based in the United Kingdom. Co. is engaged in producing and distributing spirits, beer and wine. Co.'s operations include producing, distilling, brewing, bottling, packaging, distributing, developing and marketing of a range of brands. The brands that it produces and distributes include Smirnoff vodka, Johnnie Walker scotch whisky, Baileys Original Irish Cream liqueur, Captain Morgan rum, J&B scotch whisky, Tanqueray gin and Guinness stout. In addition, Co. also has the distribution rights for the Jose Cuervo tequila brands in North America and other countries.

GALDERMA GROUP AG

Henkel AG & Co. KGaA Pref

Henkel business comprised of Laundry & Home Care, Beauty Care, and Adhesive Technologies. Co.'s Laundry & Home Care business unit include laundry and home care Branded Consumer Goods business. The Laundry Care business includes heavy-duty and specialty detergents, fabric softeners, laundry performance enhancers, and other fabric care products. Co.'s Beauty Care business unit is active in the Branded Consumer Goods business with Hair Cosmetics, Body Care, Skin Care, Oral Care, and professional Hair Salon business. Co.'s Adhesive Technologies business unit provides solutions with adhesives, sealants and functional coatings in two business areas: Industry; and Consumer, Craftsmen and Building.

L'Oreal SA

L'Oreal acts as a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. plays a strategic coordination role and scientific, industrial and marketing coordination role on a global basis. Co. develops, manufactures and commercializes products for Skin care, Hair care, Make-up, Perfumes, Toiletries and deodorants, and Oral cosmetics. Co. has three branches: Cosmetics, Body shop and Dermatology. Co.'s principal activities comprise four divisions: Professional Products, Consumer Products, L'Oreal Luxe and Active Cosmetics. The Body Shop branch offers various cosmetics and toiletry products. The Dermatology branch offers topical dermatology prescription, and corrective and aesthetic dermatology.

Nestle S.A.

Nestle is a holding company which is based in Switzerland. Through its subsidiaries and allied companies, Co. is engaged in the food processing industry. Co.'s product portfolio has seven categories, Powder and Liquid Beverages, Nutritional and Health Science, Milk products and ice cream, Prepared dishes and cooking aids, PetCare, Confectionery and Water.

Pernod Ricard SA

Pernod Ricard produces and distributes wines and spirits. Co. produces aniseed products, vodka, whisky, cognac, rum, gin, liqueurs, champagnes and wines. Co.'s activity is organized around families of products built around brands. Its brands portfolio includes: ABSOLUT vodka, Ricard pastis, Ballantine's, Chivas Regal and The Glenlivet Scotch whiskies, Jameson Irish whiskey, Martell cognac, Havana Club rum, Beefeater gin, Kahlua and Malibu liqueurs, Mumm and Perrier-Jouet champagnes as well as Jacob's Creek and Brancott Estate wines. Co. is structured into four segments constituted by the following geographic regions: France, Europe (excluding France), Americas, Asia/Rest of the World.

PUIG BRANDS

UNILEVER PLC

Provider
Oddo BHF
Oddo BHF

​Oddo Securities provides securities brokerage and research services. The company offers equity, economic, and derivatives research and credit analysis services. It focuses on insurance, automotive, building materials, pharmaceuticals, telecommunications, information technology, and agri-food industries.

Analysts
Pierre Tegner

Pierre-Adrien Fraisse

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