First salvo of tariffs threats

Trump being Trump, he was barely back in the White House when he immediately brandished the weapon of trade tariffs. Mexico and Canada have been threatened with a 25% hike in tariffs on 1 February and China with a 10% hike. Europe will soon be in the firing line. Some observers were relieved because these figures are lower than the maximalist announcements of the campaign: 60% on China, 20% on the rest of the world. Moreover, there are few details about the implementation and the concessions Trump is seeking for him to change his position. In any case, a trade tariff war is not a zero-sum game, but an overall negative shock to the volume of trade and GDP. Let's see what the models say.