The US economy six months after Liberation Day

Six months ago, Donald Trump unveiled his so-called ‘reciprocal’ tariffs. While everyone was aware of his obsession with tariffs, it came as a shock because such a sharp and widespread increase had not been anticipated. Equity markets corrected for a while and economic forecasts incorporated a stagflation premium (lower employment and higher inflation). Today, the markets are at all-time highs and the US economy has not faltered. It is showing very different facets. Business investment spending is very dynamic, clearly linked to the AI revolution. But employment, the foundation of household income, is showing significant signs of weakness. This situation appears to be very unstable.