US: surveys point towards risk of stagflation

Economic policy choices in the United States are inconsistent. Some find reassurance in saying that Trump always backtracks (or chickens out) when the consequences of his actions are too negative. It's all just noise. In reality, what we observe is that to get out of a difficult situation, the US president often just opens another equally uncertain front (for example, seeking reconciliation with China on trade while intensifying the pressure on Europe). As the latest confidence surveys attest, this is prompting a “wait-and-see” stance amongst economic agents: pushing back of investments, postponement of hiring, etc. This reinforces the scenario of a significant weakening of economic growth.