Will Scott Bessent’s arrows hit their targets?

Scott Bessent, the future Treasury Secretary nominated this week by Donald Trump, sums up his roadmap in three points (the equivalent of late Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe’s three arrows). First, to reduce the federal budget deficit to 3% of GDP by 2028. Second, to raise potential growth to 3% through deregulation. Third: increase oil production (or equivalent) by 3 Mb/d. Energy independence, supply conditions and public finances are interconnected. The world trade situation is not neutral either. The success of this 3-arrow strategy depends on whether Trump's tariff war leads to an escalation of protectionism or, on the contrary, encourages the opening up of other markets.