Report
Javier Esteban
EUR 400.00 For Business Accounts Only

INFORME SECTORIAL BANCOS EUROPA: POCO MOMENTUM SECTORIAL HASTA RDOS. 4T’24 (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

Poco momentum hasta que publiquen guidance 2025 en Rdos. 4T’24.
A la espera del guidance’25 en Rdos. 4T’24 reina la cautela y un apetito limitado por el sector a la espera de que se descarten escenarios muy negativos, en nuestra opinión injustificados. Nosotros esperamos una caída media de ingresos de -3,3% en 2025 (vs -1% consenso) y -10% en BDI (vs -3% consenso) para un EURIBOR de 2,18%. Creemos que queda valor en un sector holgado de capital (13,3% CET1 medio) con una yield por dividendo de ~10% con recompras, pero el mercado quiere confirmarlo con hechos y será muy selectivo. Nuestros favoritos continúan siendo Santander y Unicredit. El primero cotiza especialmente barato (0,8x P/TE’25e; 6,8x PER’25e) y además, su diversificación geográfica hace que la sensibilidad de sus ingresos a tipos sea menos negativa. En Unicredit, a pesar de tener dos OPAs en el horno (potencial sobre Commerzbank y la de BPM, que tendrá que mejorar) destacamos su atractivo por capital (14,5% CET1) y retribución al accionista (17% con recompras/ que se espera que retomen en junio’25). Rebajamos Intesa San Paolo a Infraponderar por el limitado potencial (+14%) y subimos Caixabank a Sobreponderar tras un performance negativo desde su CMD (-6% relativo a sector y -1% vs Ibex) y ahora que ofrece un +23% de potencial. Pensamos que va llegando el momento de Société Générale, donde ya vimos una mejora muy relevante de sus Rdos. en 3T’24, pero nos gustaría confirmarlo en el 4T’24 antes de considerarlo en nuestra lista de favoritos.
Underlyings
10x Genomics Inc Class A

Banco Santander S.A.

Banco Santander is a holding company, providing a range of financial products. Co.'s products and services include: retail banking business that covers all customer banking businesses; wholesale banking business; as well as asset management and insurance business. Co.'s principal operations are in Spain, the U.K., Portugal, Germany, Italy and Latin America. As of Dec 31 2014, Co.'s total assets amounted to Euro1,266,296,000,000 and total customer deposits amounted to Euro647,627,000,000.

Bankinter SA

Bankinter is the parent company of a group engaged in banking activities. Services provided include: investment banking; capital market services; financial services insurance; international services such as foreign exchange transactions and travelers' checks; wholesale corporate banking; and retail and private banking services. Co. offers its products and services through the following channels of distribution: branch network; telephone banking, interactive (software) banking; agents; and Internet banking. As of Dec 31 2014, Co. had assets totalling Euro57,332,974,000 and deposits totalling Euro29,966,129,000.

BNP Paribas SA Class A

BNP Paribas is engaged in the provision of banking and financial services. Co.'s business activities are divided into two segments: Retail Banking & Services and Corporate and Investment Banking. The Retail Banking and Services business includes domestic markets and international financial services. The Corporate and Institutional Banking comprises of corporate banking, global markets, and securities services. Other activities include principal investments, which related to Co.'s central treasury function, some costs related to crossbusiness projects, the residential mortgage lending business of personal finance, and certain investments.

CaixaBank SA

Caixabank is an investment company based in Spain. Co. is involved in investment portfolio management activities across two areas: Services and Financial Business and Insurance. In the services area, Co. provides investment solutions for companies involved in the infrastructure, energy, services and entertainment sectors. In the financial business and insurance area, Co. is engaged in the investments for international banks, insurance and specialist financial services. Co. focuses most of its banking investments in India, China, the U.S., and Central and Eastern Europe with a particular interest in retail banking. Co. is also involved in the disinvestments activities.

ING Groep N.V.

Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A.

Intesa Sanpaolo is a commercial bank. Co. is engaged in lending and deposit collection operations in Italy and associated financial services, serving Households, Personal, Small Business, Private and Small and Medium Enterprise customers. Co. provides medium-term credit, leasing, factoring and agribusiness (Mediocredito Italiano), consumer credit (Intesa Sanpaolo Personal Finance), management of electronic payments (Setefi), and trust services (Sirefid). Co. has approximately 4,300 branches, including Retail and Business branches, distributed broadly throughout Italy. At Dec 31 2014, Co. had total assets of Euro646.43 billion.

Societe Generale S.A. Class A

Societe Generale is a universal banking and financial services group based in France. Co. is engaged in operations in areas such as retail banking, corporate and investment banking, financial services, insurance, private banking and asset management. Co.'s three segments are: French Retail Banking (FRB); International Retail Banking & Financial Services (IBFS); and Global Banking and Investor Solutions (GBIS). FRB offers products and services to individual, professional and business customers; IBFS comprises banking networks and consumer finance activities; and GBIS covers global activities of Corporate and Investment Banking. Co. maintains operations across 76 countries globally.

Unicaja Banco S.A.

Unicaja Banco SA is a Spain-based financial institution (the Bank) engaged in the banking sector. The Bank offers services to individual and business customers. Its products and services range includes current and savings accounts, debit and credit cards, consumer and commercial loans, real estate credit, securities brokerage, funds management, leasing, factoring, pension plans, life and non-life insurance, international trade financing, money transfer, as well as treasury, among others. The Bank operates a number of branches in Spain and Morocco. The Bank is controlled by Fundacion Bancaria Unicaja.

UniCredit S.p.A.

Provider
Sabadell
Sabadell

Analysts
Javier Esteban

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