EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 01 APRIL (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: N/A.

Stock markets continue to price in the end of the war
European stock markets saw an increasing performance, pricing in D. Tump’s comments about an imminent end of the war (in 2-3 weeks) although he also stated that if the Strait of Hormuz is closed is not relevant and crude oil prices continued to hit highs. D. Trump is expected to update the conflict situation tonight. Iran’s president stated that Iran wishes to end the conflict provided that guarantees are offered the country will not be attacked again. Thus, in the STOXX 600, Basic Resources and cyclical sectors, in general, were the best performers whereas Retail was the worst performer. On the macro side, in the euro zone March’s inflation rose in line with expectations. In the US March’s Conference Board Consumer Confidence climbed more than expected but February’s job vacancies fell slightly more than expected, showing some weakness again in the job market. In China, March’s RatingDog manufacturing PMI (private sector) fell slightly more than expected although remaining in expansion zone. In Japan, March’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing Tankan indices recovered more than expected. In geopolitics, the tension between the US and Europe increased after Italy joined France and Spain and denied permission to the US to use its bases for operations against Iran.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains >+2%, with a strong rally of cyclical sectors sensitive to crude oil, such as Basic Resources, Leisure, Automobiles or Banks, as well as Technology thanks to the strong rise in semiconductors, severely hit in the last few days. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.35% (the S&P 500 ended +1.5% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are rallying (China’s CSI 300 +1.8%, Japan’s Nikkei +5% and South Korea’s Kospi 9%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn March’s final manufacturing PMI and in the US ADP private employment survey, March’s manufacturing ISM and February’s retail sales and construction spending.