IBERIAN DAILY 22 OCTOBER + 3Q’24 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: AENA, BANKING SECTOR, ENAGÁS, SACYR.At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 3Q’24 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.
Results season takes centre stage
A poor start to a week marked by the flood of company earnings in Europe and the US. The proximity of the US presidential election adds uncertainty and puts pressure on US debt. In the STOXX 600, only Energy ended the session with gains, with Real Estate and Consumer Goods ending with the biggest losses. On the macro side, in the US, from the Fed several members (Kashkari, Logan, Daly and Schmid) are in favour of slowing the pace of rate cuts. From the ECB, Vasle (Slovenia) stressed his concern for inflation in the service sector and the labour market, stating that rate cuts will not necessarily continue. In US business results, Berkeley and Nucor released worse earnings than expected (sales above expectations).
What we expect for today
Stock markets would open gains of more than +0.2%, with growth again underperforming and with oil companies dragged down by the falling Brent prices. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.16% (the S&P 500 ended +0.22% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 +0.34%, Japan’s Nikkei -1.41%).
Today in Mexico we will learn the IGAE activity index and August’s retail sales. In US business results, General Motors, Invesco, Moody’s and 3M, among others, will release their earnings.
COMPANY NEWS
ENAGÁS. Slightly better 9M’24 results in Net Profit. NFD fell due to TGE cash. OVERWEIGHT
EBITDA (excluding the sale of Tallgrass, TGE) came in at € 572.8 M (+0.1% vs. 9M’23 vs. -1% BS(e) and -2.4% consensus), and Net Profit (ex-TGE) stood at € 233.5 M (-9.5% vs. 9M’23, vs. -16% BS(e) and -14% consensus; due to lower financial costs and tax rate). With the Tallgrass capital losses (€ -363.7 M), reported Net Profit reached € -130 M. NFD already includes the effect from TGE and fell to € 2.42 Bn vs. € 3.35 Bn previously (3.2x NFD/EBITDA vs. 4.1x previously). Net Profit beat the guidance updated in July of € 270-280 M (same as consensus and BS(e)); on the reported level, with the sale of TGE around € -90/-80 M. We expect a slightly positive impact. There will be a conference call at 8:30 (CET).
3Q’24 Results highlights and rest of previews
Of the stocks releasing their earnings over the coming days, on the positive side we highlight Mapfre (releasing on 29/10), where we expect to see, for the first time since 2H’23, an improvement to the combined ratio in Motor Spain and also a consolidation of the positive trends in the rest of the areas. The stock has already seen part of the recovery (+7% in absolute terms, +2%/+3% vs. IBEX 35 and sector over the past month), but the outperformance could continue.
Aena SME SA, formerly Aena SA, is a Spain-based company primarily engaged in the airports operation. Its activities are divided into four segments: Airports, which comprises Aeronautical subdivision, responsible for the management of airports, jetways, security, handling, cargo and fuel services, among others, as well as Commercial subdivision, including duty-free and specialty stores, restaurant services, car rental, as well as banking services and advertising; Services outside the terminal, which manages real estate assets, such as parking lots, warehouses and lands; International, which comprises operations of Company's subsidiary, Aena Desarrollo Internacional SA, that invests in other airport owners principally in Mexico, Colombia and the United Kingdom; and Others, encompassing corporate activities. It manages tourism, hub and regional airports, as well as heliports and general aviation areas. Furthermore, its destination range comprises Europe, the Americas, Asia and Africa.
Enagas is a gas transportation company based in Spain. Co. is engaged in the technical distribution and storage of gas through pipelines as well as the provision of regasification services. Co. and subsidiaries are engaged in the ownership, administration, storage, pipeline transportation, distribution flow, and sale of natural gas. As a transport company, Co. also provides gas and manages the gas infrastructures.
Sacyr is the parent company of a group engaged in the acquisition, development and construction of urban properties for their subsequent rental or resale. Co. primarily leases and sells office buildings and complexes, housing units, and shopping centers. Co. is also engaged in the operation of urban car parking facilities. Co. offers services related to the real estate industry such as technical assistance in energy savings, inventory management, architectural design, telecommunications management, property maintenance, as well as gardening and landscaping. Co. also provides consulting services in the real estate fund management sector.
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