IBERIAN DAILY 25 FEBRUARY + 4Q’25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: AENA, ENCE, INDRA, ROVI, VIDRALA.At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 4Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.
Europe unable to capitalise on the rally
European stock markets found greater stability, despite the rally by US software companies as a result of the overselling due to fears of a disruption brought about by AI. In the STOXX 600, Autos and Basic Materials led the gains, while Banks (erasing the gains from Monday) and Media posted the biggest losses. On the macro side, in the US February’s Conference Board consumer confidence rose more than expected, returning to levels from Oct’25. However, February’s Richmond manufacturing index deteriorated more than expected. In business news, Anthropic announced new tools to incorporate its technology into investment banking, business review, personal wealth management tasks, portfolio analysis and human resources. In Japan, T. Asada and A. Sato, both in favour of an accommodative monetary policy, were proposed to replace A. Noguchi and J. Nagakawa at the BoJ. In US business results, Home Depot beat expectations, Dr Pepper was in line.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains of around +0.3%. Currently, S&P futures are flat (the S&P 500 ended +0.15% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 +0.5%, Japan’s Nikkei +2.3% and South Korea’s Kospi +1.9%).
Today in Germany we will learn the final 4Q’25 GDP and in the euro zone January’s final inflation figure. In US 4Q’25 Results, Lowe’s, The Mosaic, Salesforce, Trade Desk and NVIDIA, among others, will release their earnings.
COMPANY NEWS
AENA. Better 4Q’25 results due to IFRIC 12. New T.P. € 25.10/sh. UNDERWEIGHT
4Q’25 revenues beat expectations (+11.4% vs. +7.8% BS(e) and +7.2% consensus), where we highlight the International division (16% of the total; +49% vs. +16% BS(e) and +21% consensus) due to the effect from IFRIC 12. 4Q’25 EBITDA also beat expectations (+6.5% vs. +3.9% BS(e) and +6.3% consensus), although the margin was below forecasts (56.6% vs. 57.1% BS(e) and 58.7% consensus). For 2026 the company expects a traffic level of 326 M passengers (+1.3% vs. +2.6% expected). AENA announced a dividend of € 1.09/sh. (4% yield; in line). We do not expect these results to have a significant impact on the share price. We raise our T.P. to € 25.10/sh. (+6% vs. previous) due to the rollover’26 effect, but without changing our estimates, and we maintain our UNDERWEIGHT recommendation.
ENCE, OVERWEIGHT
The 4Q’25 sales fell -10% (-14.5% pulp and +1.3% renewables), leaving annual sales at € 747.3 M (-14.7%), with € 543.6 M for pulp (-20.4%) and +4.7% for renewables to € 206 M. EBITDA’25 reached € 83.5 M (-49.3%), with € 56 M for pulp (-59.4%) and € 27.4 M for renewables (+4.2%).
We do not expect a significant impact. We maintain our positive view on the stock, due mainly to the recovery of pulp prices (+25% vs. Aug’25 lows and +13.6% in 2026, and an additional increase of around +6% must still be absorbed) in view of the lack of new capacity, and with demand growing around +4%, and where we welcome the diversification with the renewable energy business. In 2026 the stock has rallied +2.7% (-2.3% vs. IBEX), but it has fallen -29% in the last year (-69% vs. IBEX).
ROVI. Better 4Q’25 results on operating level. We raise our T.P. to € 90.00/sh. OVERWEIGHT.
The 4Q’25 results beat expectations on the operating level (€ 67 M of EBITDA vs. € 52 M consensus and € 58 M BS(e)). The company maintains the guidance’26 (double-digit sales growth) and announced a dividend’25 of € 0.9594/sh. (+3% vs. 2024; 1.2% yield; 35% payout), above expectations (€ 0.89/sh.). We do not expect a significant impact following the strong recent performance (+23% in 2026; +18% vs. IBEX). We raise our T.P. to € 90.00/sh. (+28% vs. previous and +15% upside) after raising our EBITDA’26-28e estimates by +5% due to the better performance expected in the CDMO division (~40% sales’26e), rolling over our model and raising the valuation multiple for CDMO to ~13x EV/EBITDA’26e (vs. the previous 11.5x), given the favourable outlook.
VIDRALA, OVERWEIGHT
FY2025 Results vs. 2024: Sales: € 1.47 Bn (-7.8% vs. -6.5% BS(e) and -6.0% consensus); EBITDA: € 441.0 M (-2.9% vs. -2.5% BS(e) and -2.9% consensus); Net Profit: € 219.6 M (-26.4% vs. -22.6% BS(e) and -24.8% consensus). FY2025 Results in line with EBITDA expectations (and below the company’s guidance’25) but with better margins (+152bps due to mix and efficiency improvements to 30.1% vs. 29.8% BS(e) and vs 29.6% consensus). The drop in sales at constant consolidation scope and currency came in at -5.4% due to the weakness of both volumes and selling prices. The margin rose.
Our first impression is that the 4Q’25 Results underscore that the EBITDA guidance’25 was overly optimistic, which was based on a recovery of sale volumes in 2H’25, which did not materialize in the end due to sector dynamics. The exchange rate (BRL and GBP) also benefited the performance.
That said, we believe that the stock (and the EBITDA consensus) largely priced in the disappointment risk (-5% in absolute terms in 12 months, -49% vs. IBEX).
Aena SME SA, formerly Aena SA, is a Spain-based company primarily engaged in the airports operation. Its activities are divided into four segments: Airports, which comprises Aeronautical subdivision, responsible for the management of airports, jetways, security, handling, cargo and fuel services, among others, as well as Commercial subdivision, including duty-free and specialty stores, restaurant services, car rental, as well as banking services and advertising; Services outside the terminal, which manages real estate assets, such as parking lots, warehouses and lands; International, which comprises operations of Company's subsidiary, Aena Desarrollo Internacional SA, that invests in other airport owners principally in Mexico, Colombia and the United Kingdom; and Others, encompassing corporate activities. It manages tourism, hub and regional airports, as well as heliports and general aviation areas. Furthermore, its destination range comprises Europe, the Americas, Asia and Africa.
Ence Energia Y Celulosa is engaged in the manufacture and commercialization of wood pulp and derivatives. Co. divides its activities into the following two business lines: Forest Division: Co. manages timberlands in South America and the Iberian Peninsula. Co. is involved in trading of wood, and supplies solid wood products including: plywood, sawn timber, parquet flooring and glued-edge paneling. Co. is involved in forest and environmental consulting. Pulp Division and Energy Production: Co. is engaged in the production of Eucalyptus globulus-based TCF and ECF paper pulp. Co. is also involved in the generation of electricity through biomass power producing plants.
Indra Sistemas is engaged in the design, development, manufacture, assembly, repair, and installation of computer software and applications. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in consulting, graphic design and multimedia, web design and marketing, internet development and electronic trade, systems integration and hosting geared business to business and business to consumer, as well as in internet financing and electronic marketing. Co. serves defense and security, transport and traffic, energy and industry, telecom and media, finance and insurance, and public administration and healthcare markets. Co. operates primarily in Europe, the United States, Canada, and Latin America.
Laboratorios Farmaceuticos Rovi is engaged in the sale of its own pharmaceutical products and the distribution of other products for which it holds licenses granted by other laboratories for specific periods, in accordance with the terms and conditions contained in the agreements entered into with said laboratories.
Vidrala SA is a Spain-based company principally engaged in the glass industry. The Company operates through two segments: Spain and European Union. The Company's activities include the production, distribution and sale of glass bottles and containers used in the food and beverages industries. The Company conducts its own research and development (R&D) operations. It operates production plants and melting furnaces located in such countries, as Portugal, France, Belgium and Italy. The Company owns such subsidiaries as Crisnova Vidrio SA, Inverbeira Sociedad de Promocion de Empresas SA, Gallo Vidro SA, Castellar Vidrio SA, Corsico Vetro SRL, MD Verre SA, Omega Immobiliere et Financiere SA, Investverre SA and CD Verre SA.
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