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IBERIAN DAILY 23 FEBRUARY + 4Q’25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ALMIRALL, ELECTRICITY SECTOR, INDRA.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 4Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

Geopolitical tension rising in Iran
European stock markets halted their advance over the week, affected to some extent by the geopolitical noise regarding Iran and the US army’s preparation for a possible military incursion in the country. In the STOXX 600, Pharma and Utilities were the worst-performing sectors, with Banks and Consumer Goods (Luxury) posting the biggest gains. On the macro side, in the UK January’s retail sales rose more than expected. In the euro zone, February’s preliminary PMIs rose (although the services index was worse than expected and the manufacturing index better). In the US, February’s PMIs fell more than expected and the 4Q’25 GDP grew less than expected, dragged down by the shutdown, but consumption and investment were the economy’s engine. He University of Michigan consumer confidence was lowered unexpectedly. In trade matters, the Supreme Court ruled against Trump’s tariffs based on the federal Law lEEPA, leaving US$ 170 Bn of revenues in the air. The resolution did not provide whether the government will have to return the tariffs collected and the relief will be temporary for the rest of countries as D. Trump has already announced a general 15% tariff for 150 days, resorting to the section 122 of the 1974 Trade Law (with the exception of those products with sector tariffs). Meanwhile, the Euro zone is demanding to meet the trade agreements and is threatening to freeze the agreement reached in 2025. The tariff changes are more favourable for China, India, Brazil and Canada.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with losses, but with mixed performance, where Food, Consumer Goods and Basic Materials would be supported by the tariffs having been struck down. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.7% (the S&P 500 ended +0.10% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 closed, Japan’s Nikkei closed and South Korea’s Kospi +0.55%).
Today in Germany we will learn February’s IFO, in Mexico December’s IGAE and in the US December’s factory orders and durable goods orders. In US 4Q’25 Results, Domino’s Pizza, Viper Energy and Black Stone, among others, will release their earnings.


COMPANY NEWS

ALMIRALL, OVERWEIGHT
4Q’25 Results in line in EBITDA (€ 52 M vs. € 52 M BS(e) and € 53 M consensus;+4% vs. 4Q’24). Good performance of NFD, which fell by € -21 M to a net cash position of € -2 M (vs. NFD € ~3 M BS(e); 0x NFD/EBITDA). The company announced a guidance’26 of between +9% and +12% sales growth (vs. +11% consensus) and € 270/290 M of EBITDA, (€ 280 M midpoint; +20% vs. 2025), in line with the consensus (€ 280 M; € 270 M BS(e)).
We do not foresee a relevant impact from these results after the stock climbed +5% YtD (+0% vs. IBEX). We will roll over our estimates and revise our estimates by +3% on average in EBITDA’26-28e, which will have an estimated impact on T.P. of +20% to € 15.00/sh. (+12% upside). We place our T.P. Under Revision.