EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 10 APRIL (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: COLONIAL, REPSOL, SANTANDER.

Doubts hovering over US-Iran truce
The lack of clarity in the terms of the ceasefire between Iran and the US dragged down European stock markets, although the losses were reeled in somewhat by the end of the session after B. Netanyahu showed himself to be willing to start peace talks with Lebanon next week, which would also include the disarming of Hezbollah and the US as the intermediary. In a bearish STOXX 600, the best-performing sectors were Energy (thanks to the recovery in Brent prices) and Chemicals, whereas Media and Travel & Leisure ended with the biggest drops. On the macro side, in Germany industrial output contracted unexpectedly in February, as it did in Spain, where the previous data was also lowered. In the US, weekly jobless claims rose more than expected and real personal consumption rose slightly less than expected, suggesting less-dynamic private consumption in 1Q’26. The final 4Q’25 GDP was lowered to 0.5% QoQ due to the lower growth in private consumption and elimination of obsolete inventory. In Mexico, March’s inflation rose in line with expectations to 4.5%. In China, March’s inflation fell more than expected, while production prices rose more than forecast. Separately, Xi Jinping told the opposition leader in Taiwan that the country’s annexation is inevitable.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains of more than +0.5%, with mixed performance between cyclicals and defensives. Currently, S&P futures are flat (the S&P 500 ended +0.5% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 +1.4%, Japan’s Nikkei +2.0% and South Korea’s Kospi +1.8%).
Today in Germany we will learn March’s inflation, in the US March’s inflation and April’s U. Michigan consumer confidence, in Mexico February’s industrial output and in Brazil March’s inflation.


COMPANY NEWS

REPSOL. Solid 1Q’26 Trading Statement thanks to Upstream. UNDERWEIGHT
It was a strong quarter in the Upstream business, underpinned by Brent crude prices (US$ 81.10/b vs. guidance of US$ 65/b and US& 75/b BS(e)), HH gas (US$ 5.10/MBtu vs. US$ 4 guidance and US$ 3.80 BS(e)) and lower exploration costs. In the Industrial business, the lower refining margin ($ 10.90/b), due to low utilization levels, would be offset by wholesale and gas trading. We estimate €~1.3 Bn of 1Q’26e EBIT (+45% vs. 4Q’25; in line with the consensus) and €~875 M of adjusted 1Q’26e Net Profit (+33% vs. 4Q’25, vs. € 911 M consensus). We raise our T.P. slightly to € 23.34/sh. (vs. the previous € 23.19/sh.) due to the refining margin, but our recommendation is UNDERWEIGHT due to the low upside (+2%). Today we would expect a neutral reading of the Trading Statement, although the share price will continue to be driven by Brent crude evolution (currently flat at around US$ 97/b).