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IBERIAN DAILY 17 FEBRUARY + 4Q’25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: CIE AUTOMOTIVE, ELECTRICITY SECTOR, ENAGAS, GRIFOLS, INDRA.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 4Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

A transitional session
Stock markets kicked off the week with few references due to the US (Presidents’ Day) and Chinese (Lunar New Year) holiday, with the Ibex leading gains in Europe again. In the STOXX 600, Banks and Insurance led gains vs. the drops of Media and Technology. On the macro side, in the euro zone, December’s industrial output moderated more than expected in YoY terms due mainly to Germany and the drop in capital goods production. In Japan, the Finance Minister announced that public debt issuances in 2029 will rise by +28% vs. 2026 due to the increased spending and higher financing costs.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with profit taking, falling around -0.5% and with the Basic Materials sector dragged down by the drop in metal prices. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.53% (the S&P 500 was closed). Asian markets are falling (China’s CSI 300 closed, Japan’s Nikkei -0.73% and South Korea’s Kospi closed).
Today in the UK we will learn January’s number of unemployed and December’s ILO unemployment rate, in Germany February’s ZEW index and January’s final inflation, and in the US February’s manufacturing Empire index and NAHB residential confidence. In US 4Q’25 Results Palo Alto y FirstEnergy, among others, will release their earnings.


COMPANY NEWS

CIE AUTOMOTIVE. T.P. increase and FY2025 results preview. OVERWEIGHT.
The stock has risen +26% over the past 12 months with results that have remained strong despite the situation in the sector and FX, which have had an adverse effect. Is there additional upside? We believe there is, and for this reason we raise our T.P. by +19% to € 35.25/sh. after rolling over our model, incorporating the latest acquisitions and raising our estimates (improving the margin by +38bps). We expect the company to meet its guidance’25 of reaching an EBITDA margin of 19% when it releases its FY2025 results on 25/02.

ENAGÁS. Slightly better FY2025 Results in EBITDA. OVERWEIGHT
EBITDA’25 came in at € 675.7 M (-11.2% vs. 2024, vs. -11.5% consensus and BS), slightly beating the guidance (€ 670 M) thanks to the efficiency plan and the good performance of its associated companies. Adjusted Net Profit’25 totalled € 266.3 M (-14.1% vs. 2024, vs. -12% consensus and -13.6% BS), more in line with the guidance (€ 265 M). We would expect little impact from these results. In the conference call at 8:30 (CET) the focus will be on the guidance and on the new gas transport network regulation (draft expected in 1H’26), and where there should not be any big changes vs. the current regulation, the roadmap for hydrogen and Peru. In 2026 the stock has rallied +14% (beating the rest of its domestic peers) vs. +2.5% for the IBEX 35.

4Q’25 Results highlights and rest of previews
Of the stocks releasing their results over the coming days, we highlight on the negative side: (i) Vidrala (25/02), where the 4Q’25 results could underscore that the company’s EBITDA guidance’25 was overly optimistic. With this in mind, we believe that the stock is largely pricing in the disappointment risk (-49% vs. IBEX in 12 months).