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IBERIAN DAILY 30 OCTOBER + 3Q’25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: GRUPO CATALANA OCCIDENTE, FLUIDRA, INDRA, REPSOL, TELEFÓNICA.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 3Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

The Fed cut rates and the ECB will continue in autopilot mode
European stock markets saw a mixed performance amid 3Q’25 results and ahead of the Fed meeting. In the STOXX 600, cyclical (B. Resources) and financial (Banks) groups were the best performers vs. the sharper drops of Telecommunications and Chemicals. On the macro side, in Spain, the 3Q’25 GDP growth moderated more than expected to 2.8% YoY. In France, the 3Q’25 GDP grew more than expected. In the US, the Fed cut rates by -25bps to 3.75%-4.0%, as expected, and despite leaving a possible cut in Dec’25 on the air it agreed to put an end to QT on the 1st of December’25. In Japan, the BoJ kept its monetary policy unchanged. On the trade front, D. Trump announced a trade deal with South Korea with 15% tariffs on autos in exchange for US$ 350.000 Bn investments. D. Trump also held a positive meeting with China’s X. Xinping, confirming the -10% tariff cut on fentanyl and China committed to delay for one year the rare mineral export restriction. On the geopolitical front, D. Trump instructed the resumption of nuclear testing. In US business results, The Kraft Heinz, Caterpillar, Alphabet and Microsoft beat expectations, PPG Industries, Verisk, Verizon Communications and eBay were in line whereas Boeing and Starbucks released disappointing earnings. Starbucks, Meta, eBay, Alphabet y Microsoft.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains of +0.2%. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.05% (the S&P 500 ended -0.24% lower vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are falling (China’s CSI 300 -0.48% and Japan’s Nikkei -0.10%).
Today in the euro zone the ECB will meet, in Spain we will learn October’s inflation, in Germany October’s number of unemployed and inflation, and in the euro zone the 3Q’25 GDP. In US business results Fox, Biogen, Mastercard, Merck&Co, Apple and Amazon.com, among others, will release their earnings.


COMPANY NEWS

FLUIDRA. Solid results in line with expectations. OVERWEIGHT
At first glance the results look positive to us, and they are in line with forecasts, better in sales although lower in margins. 3Q’25 vs. 3Q’24: Sales € 497 M (+6.7% vs. +3.2% BS(e) and +3.8% consensus), EBITDA € 97 M (+7.5% vs. +6.5% BS(e) and +6.4% consensus). In sales, on the positive side we highlight the solid volume performance (+5% in 9M’25, gaining market share), and on the negative side FX (-2%). The gross margin came in below expectations (-70bps to 55.3%), hit by tariffs although FDR offset it through lower operating expenses. The company has reiterated its guidance’25.

INDRA. Results in line with BS(e) and slightly below the consensus. We raise our estimates and T.P. OVERWEIGHT
The 3Q’25 sales rose +6% (vs. +5.6% BS(e) and +10.7% consensus) and EBIT came in at € 109 M (-1.8% vs. -0.9% BS(e) and +4.0% consensus), with a margin of 8.8% (vs. 8.5% in 3Q’24). The drop in EBIT is explained mainly by Defence (lower contribution from the Eurofighter and higher operating expenses linked to the increased capacity to undertake the PEM). FCF in 3Q’25 reached € -8 M, leaving NFD at € 114 M (0.2x NFD/EBITDA). The company has maintained its guidance’25. After the stock’s strong performance (+192% in absolute terms in 2025), the reception could be negative. We raise our estimates and T.P. to € 56.20/sh. (+44% vs. previous; +14% upside).

REPSOL. Solid 3Q’25 results. Forecasts through 2028 to be updated in 1Q’26. T.P. Under Revision
The 3Q’25 results beat our expectations and those of the consensus (raised +15% since the release of the Trading Statement). Adjusted 3Q’25 Net Profit would have reached € 820 M (+47% vs. 3Q’24 vs. +44% consensus and +40% BS(e)). By divisions: Upstream (49% EBIT’24) € 317 M (+10% vs. 3Q’24); Industrial (39% EBIT’24) € 315 M (+70% vs. 3Q’24); Commercial & Low Carbon (17% EBIT’24) € 272 M (+34% vs. 3Q’24). NFD rose to € 6.89 Bn due to NEO (UK). REP reiterates its DPS’26 of above € 1/sh. (+8.3% vs. 2025; ~6.6% yield, as expected). In March’26 the company will update its Strategic Plan through 2028. We place our T.P. Under Revision in order to raise the 2026-27e refining margin and maintain our OVERWEIGHT recommendation due to the strong remuneration we see as sustainable in cash (~7% yield) and buybacks (~5%). We expect a positive reaction today. Conference call at 11:30 (CET).