EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 03 NOVEMBER + 3Q’25 RESULTS. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: GREENING, SACYR, TELEFÓNICA, UNICAJA.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 3Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

Business results and trade talks set the pace
With the ECB on autopilot and with no surprises from the Fed, the stock markets were marked by business results and US-China trade talks. In the STOXX 600, the best performers were Banks, Basic Materials and Utilities, whereas Chemicals, Real Estate and Media were the biggest losers. On the macro side, in the euro zone October’s inflation slowed slightly, coming in at 2.1% YoY, while the core figure rose slightly more than expected. In Brazil September’s unemployment rate was disappointing, repeating at the same 5.6% from August, whereas the public deficit was much higher than expected. In the US, October’s Chicago PMI rose more than expected, but still below 50. In China, the RatingDog manufacturing PMI fell more than expected in October. In other news, OPEC+ agreed to a slight production increase (137,000 b/d) in December but to keep it stable in early 2026 in view of the risks of oversupply. On the geopolitical front, Nexperia has ceased sending supplies to its Chinese unit, which could complicate the supply chain for the automotive sector. In 3Q’25 US business results, Colgate-Palmolive, Linde, Exxon Mobile and Chevron beat expectations.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with sight gains of up to +0.2%. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.13% (the S&P 500 ended +0.36% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 +0.08% and Japan’s Nikkei closed).
Today in the euro zone and Spain we will learn October’s final manufacturing PMI. In US business results, Biontech, Berkshire, Loews and Pinnacle, among others, will release their earnings.


COMPANY NEWS

CHANGES IN RECOMMENDED PORTFOLIOS
We remove Mapfre from our 5-Stock High Yield portfolio after changing our recommendation to UNDERWEIGHT, as there is now no upside. We see room to raise our T.P. to around € 4.20/sh. with less than 10% upside. The results performance remains solid, but we believe the positive outlook is already priced in and that it will be difficult for the stock to continue to outperform the market (+57% on the year, +38% vs. sector and +19% vs. IBEX). In its place we include Santander, where despite the strong performance over the past three months (+32% vs. +23% sector), we still see +18% upside, trading at 1.4x P/TE’25e and 9.7x P/E’25e for a ROTE’25 of 15.5%. In its CMD in Feb’26 we expect the company to improve its dividend policy to a 50% cash payout (vs. current 25%), leaving the total 12-month yield at ~9% including buybacks.