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IBERIAN DAILY 16 APRIL + 1Q’26 RESULTS. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: GREENING, INDRA, REPSOL, SOLARIA.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 1Q’26 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

Markets face hornets nest in Middle East
The markets ended with losses, which widened after Iran and the US denied rumours of an extension to the ceasefire. In a divided STOXX 600, Media and Financial Services led the gains, whereas Consumer Goods and Construction saw the biggest corrections. On the macro side, in the euro zone February’s industrial output rose more than expected, although in negative numbers YoY. In the US, the Empire manufacturing index for April rose more than expected and is now in positive numbers, whereas April’s NAHB residential sector confidence deteriorated more than the consensus expected. The Beige Book showed moderate growth and rising supply costs. In Brazil, February’s retail sales rose less than expected YoY. In China, the 1Q’26 GDP grew more than expected YoY (4.8% vs. target range of 4.5-5.0% in 2026), as did March’s industrial output, whereas March’s retail sales slowed more than expected. In geopolitics, Trump stated that China pledged not to send anti-aircraft systems to Iran and once again bet on the war ending soon. Iran threatened to impede trade in the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea if the US keeps the Strait of Hormuz blocked, and according to the press, China has asked Tehran to unblock the Strait. In US business results, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley beat expectations soundly, whereas M&T Bank was more in line.
What we expect for today
The hope of a peace agreement in the Middel East will continue to drive slight gains in European stock markets today. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.18% (the S&P 500 ended +0.6% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 +0.75%, Japan’s Nikkei +2.33% and South Korea’s Kospi +2.04%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn March’s final inflation and in the US weekly jobless claims, April’s Philadelphia Fed index and February’s industrial output. In US business results, PepsiCo, Travelers, Abbott Laboratories, US Bancorp and Netflix will release their earnings, among others.


COMPANY NEWS

GREENING. 2026-2030 New Strategy
GGR’s new strategy is aimed at the structural transformation of the group towards the industrial segment, focused on Spain and Italy to a lesser extent. The activities will be simplified towards self-consumption, generation through SVP and commercialisation. The plan includes the financial restructuring, asset rotation (with € 72 M of capital gains) and a capital increase (for up to € 30 M, € 15 M already pledged), with the option of further M&A. The company expects to obtain greater predictability in cash generation (>2030) with a higher weight from the contribution of SPV (80% EBITDA), where GGR will reach € 37.5 M of EBITDA’30e (340MW vs. 90MW COD&UC currently) vs. € 21.4 M in 2026e. Leverage will be reduced to 2.5x NFD/EBITDA’30e vs. 6.4x 2026e. In principle, we would welcome GGR’s plan, focusing on countries and activities that generate value and aimed at obtaining a more predictable P&L statement (thanks to the SPV model) and a healthy balance sheet (with strong deleveraging). However, the difficulty of the plan, in our view, would lie in its execution, particularly in the short-term, as it is highly dependent on the financial restructuring and asset rotation process (€ 27 M through 2027e), as well as on the capital increase; the execution of EiDF’s integration will be also relevant (and the synergies expected). Although the plan did not initially consider M&A, GGR does not rule out this possibility as a growth driver, which we believe is a short-term risk. We maintain our T.P. range Under Revision awaiting further visibility on the milestones announced in the short-term and on the financial restructuring and asset rotation in 2026e (around € 7 M) or capital increase (€ 30 M means 28% of market cap). The performance of YE’25 will be also relevant as a starting point of the plan and of the new management team.