IBERIAN DAILY 05 SEPTEMBER (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: IBERDROLA, INDITEX, TELEFÓNICA.Debt truce and bullish stock markets
European stock markets saw new gains, with the Ibex exceeding the 14,900-point barrier and France’s CAC hit by the political uncertainty. In the STOXX 600, Media and Telecommunications were the best-performing sectors whereas Travel&Leisure and Consumer Goods fell the most. On the macro side, in the euro zone, July’s retail sales slowed down more thn expected. In the US, August’s non-manufacturing ISM climbed more than expected to February highs thanks to the orders and inventories headings. August’s ADP private employment survey moderated more than expected, with weekly jobless claims rising more than expected. In Japan, July’s household spending rose more than expected. On the trade front, T. Trump ordered to lower tariffs on Japanese vehicles to 15% from 27.5%, warning he will impose tariffs to semiconductor companies not manufactcturing in the country shortly. On the geopolitical level, 26 (European) countries pledge to ensure security in Ukraine whereas the US will lower the funds to countries on the border with Russia.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with new gains of +0.3%. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.18% (the S&P 500 ended +0.50% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are climbing (China’s CSI 300 +0.89% and Japan’s Nikkei +0.80%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn the final 2Q’25 GDP and in the US the unemployment rate.
COMPANY NEWS
INDITEX. 2Q’25 Results hit by FX and trading update continuance. OVERWEIGHT.
We expect 2Q’25 LfL sales (due 10/09) to be in line with the guidance give at the beginning of the quarter of around +6% (1 May – 9 June), which should lead to >+6% sales growth in the 2Q’25 although at a slower pace on the reported level (~+4% vs. 2Q’24) due to FX. On the operating level, EBIT growth will be slightly lower (~+2%) due to some pressure in gross margin (-20bps to 56.3%) and in costs (slightly negative spread vs. sales), with the EBIT margin standing at around 18.8% (-37bps vs. 2Q’24). As for the 3Q’25 trading update (1 Aug - ~8Sept), we do not forsee any significant surprises vs. the 2Q expectations or vs. its 2025 targets of gross margin stability (BS(e) and consensus in line).
Iberdrola is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. operates in four segments: network business, which includes all the energy transmission and distribution activities, and other regulated activity originated in Spain, the U.K., the U.S. and Brazil; deregulated business, which includes electricity generation and sales businesses as well as gas trading and storage businesses carried on by Co. in Spain, Portugal, the U.K. and North America; renewable business, with activities related to renewable energies in Spain, the U.K., the U.S. and the rest of the world; and other businesses, including the engineering and construction businesses and the non-power businesses.
Telefonica is engaged in the provision of public or private telecommunications services, including ancillary or complementary telecommunications services or related services. Co.'s fixed business includes: traditional fixed telecommunication services, Internet and broadband multimedia services, data and business-aplications services, and wholesale services for telecommunication operators. Co. also provides a range of mobile and related services and products to consumer and business customers, including mobile voice services, value added services, mobile data and Internet services, wholesale services, corporate services, roaming, fixed wireless, and, trunking and paging.
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