IBERIAN DAILY 05 MARCH (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: INDRA.Markets back in green
European stock markets rallied more than +1.5% (the IBEX close to +3.0%), despite the fact that the war in the Middle East continued to generate uncertainty. The US and Israel stated they are close to controlling Irani airspace, with Iran denying it is looking to negotiate an end to the war with the US. In the STOXX 600, all the sectors except Food, Energy (with the falling oil prices) and Chemicals posted gains, led by Travel & Leisure and Banks. On the macro side, in the euro zone January’s unemployment rate fell unexpectedly to 6.1% and the final services PMI was raised slightly. In Spain, February’s services PMI fell more than expected, although still in the growth zone (>50). In the US, February’s services ISM rose more than expected to its highest level since August’22. February’s ADP private employment rose more than expected. The Fed’s Beige Book showed moderate growth and persistent inflation. In China, the Govt. lowered the growth target for 2026 to 4.5%-5.0% vs. the consensus estimate of 4.5%. In geopolitics, Trump threatened to place a commercial embargo on Spain and to suspend contracts, something he cannot do unilaterally if he does not declare a National Emergency generated by Spain or show that Spain represents a threat to the country. Meanwhile, the war with Iran has spread beyond the country itself, and the US would be mulling the use of Ukrainian drone technology to defend itself from Iran, and Russia has threatened to cut off gas supply to Europe.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with losses of more than -1.0% in another session marked by geopolitical risk. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.4% (the S&P 500 ended flat vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 +0.7%, Japan’s Nikkei +1.9% and South Korea’s Kospi +9.6%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn January’s retail sales, in Spain January’s industrial output, in the US weekly jobless claims and January’s import prices and in Brazil January’s unemployment rate. In US business results, Costco will release its earnings.
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