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IBERIAN DAILY 19 DECEMBER (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ELECTRICITY SECTOR, FLUIDRA, NATURGY, VIDRALA.

The Ibex returns to 17,000 points
Stock markets recovered at both sides of the Atlantic in a session marked by the ECB and BoE meetings and by the good US inflation data. In the STOXX 600, all sectors except Insurance, Pharma and Autos ended with gains, led by Retail and Industrials. The ECB kept rates unchanged, as expected, raising its GDP forecast for 2026 (1.2% vs. 1.0% prev.). The BoE cut rates by 25bps, as expected, to 3.75%, a decision that was not unanimous (5 votes vs. 4). In the US, November’s general and core inflation moderated more than expected to 2.7% and 2.6% YoY, respectively. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index fell, as opposed to expectations, remaining in negative territory for the third consecutive month. Weekly jobless claims fell in line with expectations. In Mexico, as expected the Central Bank cut the reference rate by -25bps to 7.0%. In Japan, the BoJ raised the interest rate by -25bps (also expected) to 0.75%, bringing it to a high since 1995 and leaving the door open to more increases in 2026. Meanwhile, November’s general and core inflation were unsurprising, remaining at the 3.0% YoY recorded in October. In geopolitics, the EU agreed to lend Ukraine € 90 Bn without using Russian assets. In US business results, Micron released better sales, profit and guidance than expected.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with a slightly bearish slant that should turn positive throughout the session. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.04% (the S&P 500 ended -0.24% lower vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are climbing (China’s CSI 300 +0.35%, Japan’s Nikkei +1.26% and Korea’s Kospi +0.91%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn December’s consumer confidence, in the US October’s personal outlays, core consumption deflator, November’s existing home sales and the University of Michigan final consumer confidence.