Trinity Delta Lighthouse: Futura Medical
Trinity Delta view: Our investment case for Futura Medical is heavily weighted towards the US market, which is the main component of our sum-of-the-parts NPV valuation, worth more than Europe and RoW combined. Investor attention has, rightly, focused on Eroxon’s market traction, particularly repeat purchases, where there remains limited visibility. The slower than expected sales ramp is disappointing and future sentiment now hinges on the success of the revised promotional positioning. However, launch data is still early (particularly in the US where Eroxon has only been on market for three months) and as the market for ED treatments is sizeable even modest commercial success in the US would be transformational for Futura. Line extensions could help capture market attention, with the first, Eroxon Intense, on track for marketing authorisation by end-2025. In addition, new development product, WSD4000, a topical gel similar to Eroxon, could open an equally attractive novel and significant female category. As is usual in such cases, we suspend our forecasts and valuation. For context, our previous valuation was £392m, equivalent to 130p/share.Futura Medical is engaged in the research and development of pharmaceutical drugs and medical devices and their commercial exploitation. Co. focuses on developing products primarily for the consumer healthcare market. Co.'s focus is on sexual healthcare and pain relief. DermaSys® is Co.'s transdermal technology platform, for the absorption of active molecules through the skin. DermaSys® includes MED2002, a topical gel for the treatment of erectile dysfunction; TPR100, a topical diclofenac pain relief gel; TIB200, a topical ibuprofen pain relief gel; and SPR300, a topical methyl salicylate pain relief gel.
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