reports
- Franc Gregori
- Lala Gregorek
- Philippa Gardner
Trinity Delta Lighthouse: HUTCHMED
Trinity Delta view: The China sales decline, plus lowering of revenue guidance are undoubtedly disappointing. However, China growth is already improving and management is confident this will continue during H225, driven by new indications. In particular, the recent Orpathys/Tagrisso approval based on SACHI data represent a much larger indication; importantly, data from the global SAFFRON trial are expected H126. Furthermore, as the sizeable ATTC opportunities become clearer, these could offer si...
- Franc Gregori
- Lala Gregorek
- Philippa Gardner
Scancell: SCOPE’ing out iSCIB1+ in advanced melanoma
Data from SCOPE, examining Scancell’s highly promising ImmunoBody “off-the-shelf” DNA cancer vaccine, appear to show that a meaningful, additional benefit can be achieved when added to standard-of-care (SoC) CPIs as a first-line treatment in advanced melanoma. iSCIB1+ has been selected as the candidate for further development; it works in a larger, and easily identifiable, patient group that represents 80% of all advanced melanomas, double that of SCIB1. The benefits of iSCIB1+ will need to be d...
- Franc Gregori
- Lala Gregorek
- Philippa Gardner
Trinity Delta LIghthouse: Scancell
Trinity Delta view: The positive latest results from the SCOPE study of Scancell’s “off the shelf” cancer vaccine SCIB1/iSCIB1+ are important for three reasons: (1) data consistently show a clinically meaningful and commercially relevant improvement over currently achievable outcomes; (2) the better efficacy can be achieved without worsening SoC safety and tolerability; and (3) the selection of iSCIB1+ should allow a larger group of patients (c 80% of melanoma patients vs c 40% with SCIB1) to be...
- Franc Gregori
- Lala Gregorek
- Philippa Gardner
Scancell: Key ImmunoBody clinical data imminent
Scancell’s investment case centres on the lead cancer vaccines from its highly promising ImmunoBody and Moditope “off the shelf” platforms. Key data from two programmes will determine future development plans and define the commercial opportunities. The first, and most important, are the imminent SCOPE trial results: a successful outcome will allow selection of the optimal candidate (SCIB1 or iSCIB1+) to take into a potentially pivotal Phase II/III trial. Later in 2025, early data from the renal...
- Franc Gregori
- Lala Gregorek
- Philippa Gardner
Trinity Delta Lighthouse: HUTCHMED
Trinity Delta view: The approval of the Orpathys/Tagrisso combination in China is an important element for revenue growth and sustained profitability. The smooth China approval, and near-term launch, in this broader NSCLC patient group should mean that Orpathys makes an increasingly meaningful contribution to domestic sales. This NSCLC indication also underpins the major global commercial opportunity for savolitinib, and recent data support the view that similar approvals will happen in global (...
- Franc Gregori
- Lala Gregorek
- Philippa Gardner
Trinity Delta Lighthouse: Oxford BioDynamics
Trinity Delta view: Oxford BioDynamics’ near-term focus is on securing one or more partnerships, collaborations and licensing deals to maximise the revenue potential of its portfolio of innovative and clinically robust tests. In our view, the market opportunities for CiRT, PSE, and the EpiSwitch test portfolio remain intact and sizeable, but successful uptake requires continued significant commercial investment and/or partners. There are encouraging signs of growth in test volumes, notably PSE, ...
- Franc Gregori
- Lala Gregorek
- Philippa Gardner
Avacta: Beneath the tip of the pre|CISION iceberg
Avacta’s appreciation of the scope of its pre|CISION-enabled peptide-drug conjugate platform has been augmented through its Tempus AI collaboration, which has provided insights into indication selection that should enable smarter clinical trial planning. This, coupled to new IP, could also support business development activities. Further data from Avacta’s current pipeline, which has the potential to improve the therapeutic index of many highly potent yet systemically toxic oncology drugs, are a...
- Franc Gregori
- Lala Gregorek
- Philippa Gardner
Cancer vaccine data due soon; Glymab developments too
Trinity Delta view: Upcoming data for Scancell’s highly promising “off the shelf” cancer vaccines (SCIB1/iSCIB1+ and Modi-1) will be key to determine future development plans and better assess the commercial opportunities. First up will likely be SCOPE data, where the key outcome will be selection of the optimal candidate (SCIB1 or iSCIB1+) to take into a potentially pivotal Phase II/III trial. Prior SCIB1 data suggest a commercially relevant and clinically meaningful improvement can be achieved...
- Franc Gregori
- Lala Gregorek
- Philippa Gardner
ANGLE: Priming the Pharma Services market
ANGLE’s strategic priority remains firmly on growing and augmenting its Pharma Services offering as it seeks to widen commercial adoption of its proprietary Parsortix technology for CTC capture and subsequent downstream analysis. The power of liquid biopsy to inform personalised cancer therapy is becoming better appreciated, with CTC analysis providing valuable insights that ctDNA analysis cannot. Pharma Services has the potential to drive significant mid- and longer-term revenues, and there are...
- Franc Gregori
- Lala Gregorek
- Philippa Gardner
Trinity Delta Lighthouse: Avacta
Trinity Delta view: Avacta’s transition to a pure play oncology biopharma company is nearly complete, pending conclusion of the Coris divestment. Lead asset, AVA6000, has successfully demonstrated the pre|CISION platform’s ability for tumour-specific delivery of potent and toxic actives with minimal systemic effects and will render further clinical data in H225. Second asset, AVA6103, should enter the clinic in 2026, and will be the first programme to demonstrate the pre|CISION platform sustaine...
- Franc Gregori
- Lala Gregorek
- Philippa Gardner
Trinity Delta Lighthouse: HUTCHMED
Trinity Delta view: The highly positive data from the China Phase III SACHI study of savolitinib, with statistically significant PFS benefits and clinically meaningful improvements for 2L EGFRm NSCLC with MET amplification patients, reassure on the upcoming approval decision in China, and help to de-risk the ongoing Phase III SAFFRON study for global approvals, in our view. MET amplification, which is estimated to affect c 35% of 2L patients following 3rd gen EGFR treatment, leads to a poorer pr...
- Franc Gregori
- Lala Gregorek
- Philippa Gardner
Trinity Delta Lighthouse: ANGLE
Trinity Delta view: ANGLE’s Pharma Services business centres on helping large pharma customers identify cancer mutations as potential biomarkers and use them to guide targeted therapy at any stage from diagnosis to longitudinal monitoring, allowing minimally invasive and repeatable sampling, unlike tissue biopsy. ANGLE’s continued focus on growing and augmenting this offering has the potential to drive significant mid- and longer-term revenues through later-stage clinical development as part of...
- Franc Gregori
- Lala Gregorek
- Philippa Gardner
HUTCHMED: Looking ahead to the next chapter
HUTCHMED’s pipeline should deliver several catalysts over the next 12-24 months as the seven programmes currently in 14 registration/registration-intent trials yield potential near- to mid- term regulatory filings. Imminent detailed savolitinib data at ASCO could help de-risk ex-China opportunities, whilst potential China launch in the EGFR TKI refractory setting should aid revenue growth. The novel ATTC platform is a potentially significant new opportunity with further disclosures anticipated b...
- Franc Gregori
- Lala Gregorek
- Philippa Gardner
Trinity Delta Lighthouse: Futura Medical
Trinity Delta view: Futura Medical’s investment case centres on the commercial potential of Eroxon, particularly in the US where the market for ED treatments is sizeable and where even modest commercial success could be transformational for Futura. Investor sentiment was dented by the slower than expected sales ramp announced in January’s trading statement; however, the company and its commercial partners are working to address this through revised promotional positioning – with partners also co...
- Franc Gregori
- Lala Gregorek
- Philippa Gardner
Trinity Delta Lighthouse: ANGLE
Trinity Delta view: ANGLE’s focus is on progressing and growing the Pharma Services business, which has the potential to drive significant mid- and longer-term revenues through later-stage development as part of existing deals (depth), cross-selling (breadth), and new deals (halo). This a key element in widening adoption of Parsortix-based CTC analysis to support development of new therapies and potentially broaden the applicability of existing targeted drugs. Cancer mutations as potential bioma...
- Franc Gregori
- Lala Gregorek
- Philippa Gardner
Trinity Delta Lighthouse: HUTCHMED
Trinity Delta view: HUTCHMED continues to consistently execute strategically, with sustainable profitability ahead supported by solid in-market product sales growth. Near-term top-line growth will be driven by additional global launches and new indications for current products, plus potential new product approvals. Acquisitions and/or in-licensing will be sought to support the mid-term, whilst accelerated investment in the highly promising ATTC platform (from proceeds of the SHPL disposal) shoul...
- Franc Gregori
- Lala Gregorek
- Philippa Gardner
Avacta: Executing steadily on therapeutics focused strategy
Avacta continues its transition into a pure-play therapeutics company to advance its pre|CISION-enabled peptide-drug conjugate platform. The expanding pipeline has the potential to improve the therapeutic index of many highly potent yet systemically toxic oncology drugs. Progress has been tangible with early efficacy and safety data from the Phase Ia salivary gland cancer (SGC) dose escalation cohort of lead asset AVA6000 (FAP-Dox), and confirmation of dosing and ongoing enrolment into Phase Ib ...
- Franc Gregori
- Lala Gregorek
- Philippa Gardner
Oxford BioDynamics: Seeking deals to enhance EpiSwitch revenue potenti...
There is a near-term focus on partnerships, collaborations and licensing deals to maximise the revenue potential of Oxford BioDynamics’ portfolio of innovative and clinically robust tests. We believe the market opportunities for CiRT, PSE, and the portfolio of tests remain intact and sizeable, but successful uptake requires continued significant commercial investment and/or partners, in our view. New management is considering all options to crystallise value from these diagnostic tests and the i...
- Franc Gregori
- Lala Gregorek
- Philippa Gardner
Trinity Delta Lighthouse: Arecor Therapeutics
Trinity Delta view: Arecor’s diabetes franchise is central to its investment case, with AT278 making a significant contribution to our rNPV-based valuation. Management has taken some tough decisions, notably the cessation of Tetris operations, in order to remain focussed on demonstrating the value of its novel insulins and confirming their central role in the emerging field of AID pump systems. The news of progress on co-development partnering of AT278 for the next study programme is welcomed an...
- Franc Gregori
- Lala Gregorek
- Philippa Gardner
Trinity Delta Lighthouse: ANGLE
Trinity Delta view: ANGLE’s collaboration with Illumina, the global leader in next-generation sequencing systems and assays, has significant potential to expand the Parsortix commercial opportunity. Liquid biopsy centred on ctDNA analysis is already widely adopted and these recent studies confirm that Parsortix-enabled dual CTC-DNA and ctDNA analysis can provide additional complementary information for cancer diagnosis and longitudinal monitoring. Establishing an optimised end-to-end workflow fo...
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