Baltic Classifieds Group: the perfect storm cannot last forever (stays BUY)
We maintain our BUY rating on Baltic Classifieds Group (BCG), with a revised 12-month price target (PT) of GBp 285, representing upside potential of 43% from the current price. Over the past six months, BCG has been hit by a perfect storm of events, including: a slower Estonian automotive market recovery than anticipated; subdued 1H26 Jobs & Services segment revenue growth; and emerging AI risks. BCG’s shares have plummeted 45% since June 2025, significantly underperforming its closest European classifieds peers, which have dropped by 28% on average. We do not believe that the Estonian auto market risks and Jobs & Services segment performance represent structural changes, but rather are a temporary bump in the road. In contrast, AI is a structural long-term risk but, as we argue in this report, we believe that BCG has the characteristics necessary to allow it to navigate the potential risks. BCG trades at a 18.4x FY27E P/E currently, a 19% discount to its global peers on consensus, while continuing to be the most profitable classifieds player globally, with an EBITDA margin of 78% in FY25, vs. the 59% average of its peers (LTM).
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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