reports
- Research Team
WOOD Morning (21 November 2024)
HEADLINES: • PZU: 3Q24 not as weak as feared – once the special claims end, should deliver a very strong profitability profile POSITIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: 3Q24 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 13% yoy, 2% above our estimate POSITIVE • Grupa Pracuj: 3Q24 results – adjusted EBITDA up 8% yoy, 3% above our forecast and 6% above the consensus POSITIVE • OPAP: 3Q24 earnings beat expectations, as EBITDA jumps 24% yoy POSITIVE • Motor Oil Hellas: 3Q24 results – CCS EBITDA in line NEUTRAL • Elbit Syste...
- Research Team
- Bram Buring
- CFA
WOOD Flash – AROBS Transilvania Software: FY24E budget cut, but 3Q24 r...
The main message from the 3Q24 earnings call is that customers, particularly in the automotive sector, are sitting on the budgets earmarked for outsourced work, as they reassess their own priorities. While this happens. AROBS is positioning itself to capture new business where customer demand is strongest – cyber security, AI and data engineering. This quarter, management did put personnel and other opex cuts in place, the results of which are visible already: it reversed the gross margin erosio...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: AEGN GA; GTC PW; AQ RO; GEV CP; HSBK LI; BFT PW; MOH GA; K...
HEADLINES: • Aegean Airlines: high net cash position and strong FCFF yield (upgraded to BUY) • GTC: buys German residential portfolio worth EUR 448m • Aquila Part Prod Com S.A.: gross margin and wage costs weigh on the 3Q24 results NEUTRAL • GEVORKYAN: 3Q24 broadly in line with our expectations; new signed contracts for defence and high-tech industries NEUTRAL • Halyk Bank: 3Q24 highlights – solid, on the back of better-than-expected NIM • Benefit Systems: 3Q24 call takeaways – strong long-term ...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – GTC: buys German residential portfolio worth EUR 448m
In a bold move, GTC is buying into a EUR 448m residential portfolio, comprised of apartments in three small German towns. Initially, this acquisition will not be FFO accretive, as the rental income will be consumed by opex and, chiefly, interest costs. GTC plans to sell a large part of the portfolio to small investors, building by building, over the next two years, hopefully at a profit. The money raised from the sales should be used to repay the more expensive part of the debt funding of the de...
- Peter Palovic
WOOD Flash – GEVORKYAN: 3Q24 broadly in line with our expectations; ne...
GEVORKYAN has delivered 3Q24 results that were broadly in line with our expectations. We highlight that the company managed to deliver an EBITDA margin of 32% (one of the best in its history) and should deliver on its 2024E adjusted EBITDA (adjusted for one-off expenses) guidance of EUR 28.1m. However, we believe that its 2024E reported EBITDA will be lower, at EUR 26.1-26.5m, but this is in line with our 2024E EBITDA, at EUR 26.4m. Based on its signed long-term contracts (99% signed, out of EUR...
- Bram Buring
- CFA
WOOD Flash – Aquila Part Prod Com S.A.: gross margin and wage costs we...
Aquila has delivered solid top-line growth in 3Q24, with revenues up 23% yoy and +20% for 9M24. Parmafood and Romtech contributed RON 122m to the top line in 9M24; excluding this, we calculate that the organic growth was c.13% yoy for the first nine months and c.11% in 3Q24. This quarter, the sales growth came primarily from the organised channel, which affected the gross margin negatively in the quarter. This, combined with higher wage costs, which grew by 32% yoy – driven by two subsequent hik...
- Jakub Caithaml
- Peter Palovic
Aegean Airlines: high net cash position and strong FCFF yield (upgrade...
We have upgraded our rating for Aegean Airlines to BUY (from Hold), following the recent dip in the share price. We adjust our 12M price target (PT) to EUR 11.3/share, only slightly higher than the former level (EUR 11.0/share), driven mainly by incorporating a marginally more constructive outlook on fares next year. This reflects comments made by several airlines, which have reported in recent weeks, which are pointing towards a more constructive outlook for pricing, as persistent shortages of ...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – Lamda Development: 3Q24 – in line, NAV stable
Lamda's 3Q24 was largely in line with our expectations. We are seeing a continuing strong performance from the existing malls and marinas, while the recently-announced land sales at the Ellinikon should start to pull the NAV upwards over the coming months. The visible progress in the development of the Ellinikon, coupled with the NAV uplift ahead, should help the momentum of the stock, in our view. The key risks we see are related to potential delays and construction cost overruns, as well as de...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: BFT PW; PBK RO; CAR PW; FTSHP CP; AEGN GA; SFG RO; CBF PW;...
HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: 3Q24 in line with our forecasts; solid trading update; 2025E outlook and 2025-27E strategy POSITIVE • Patria Bank: strong 3Q24 results POSITIVE • Inter Cars: 3Q24 EBITDA 1-4% below our and the market's expectations NEUTRAL • Footshop (NOT RATED): solid 3Q24; 2024E guidance boosted POSITIVE • Aegean Airlines: 3Q24 – flat RASK, CASKX up 14%; 27% lower EBIT, on 4% lower ASK (in line) NEUTRAL • Sphera Group: 3Q24 post-results webcast takeaways POSITIVE • cyber_Folks: ke...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – Aegean Airlines: 3Q24 – flat RASK, CASKX up 14%; 27% lowe...
Aegean's results were broadly in line with our estimates. The company flew 4% less ASK in 3Q24 compared to last summer. With a flat RASK, the revenue mirrored the ASK decline – slightly better than the 1% RASK contraction we had pencilled in. The ex-fuel CASK increased by 14%, driven by a combination of personnel costs and inefficiencies connected to groundings. This pushed the EBIT 27% lower yoy. Our 2024E forecast (where we pencil in the EBIT at EUR 205m) seems reasonable, in view of the 9M24 ...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: 11B PW; SFG RO; AEGN GA; ELPE GA; HTO GA; SNG RO; MTELEKOM...
HEADLINES: • 11 bit studios: 3Q24 surprises slightly positively, but ytd Frostpunk 2 sales disappoint NEGATIVE • Sphera Group: small beat in 3Q24 – new Cioccolatitaliani franchise signed for Italy POSITIVE • Aegean Airlines: 3Q24 – flat RASK, CASKX up 14%; 27% lower EBIT, on 4% lower ASK (in line) NEUTRAL • HELLENiQ Energy: 3Q24 results and interim dividend NEUTRAL • OTE: 3Q24 results review – soft quarter, with flat yoy adjusted EBITDA, in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Romgaz: 3Q24 results N...
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
CCC CCC SA
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
ETEL TELECOM EGYPT
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
SFG SPHERA FRANCHISE GROUP SA
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
VRC VERCOM SA
- Piotr Raciborski
- CFA
WOOD Flash – OTE: 3Q24 results review – soft quarter, with flat yoy ad...
OTE has reported a soft set of 3Q24 results, with sales up 2% yoy, to EUR 897m (3% below our forecast), and the adjusted EBITDA flat yoy, at EUR 370m (in line with our estimate), due mainly to the contraction of the Romanian segment’s adjusted EBITDA offsetting the growth in Greece. We see the 3Q24 results as neutral, as the adjusted EBITDA is in line with our estimate, while the misses on the reported EBITDA and the bottom-line were driven by a negative operating one-off.
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: EAT PW; EUR PW; CBF PW; MBR PW; ALE PW; VRC PW; TEN PW; PK...
HEADLINES: • AmRest: 3Q24 in line, on a EUR 9m positive one-off NEGATIVE • Eurocash: 3Q24 weak, as expected; FY25E guidance cancelled NEGATIVE • cyber_Folks: 3Q24 results review – 26% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth, 2% above our estimate POSITIVE • Mo-BRUK: 3Q24 EBITDA up 26% yoy, 22-28% above our and the market's expectations POSITIVE • Allegro: 3Q24 EBITDA beat, but yoy decline guided for 4Q24E, due to international operations NEUTRAL • Vercom: 3Q24 results - 28% yoy EBITDA growth, in line with ou...
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
EUR EUROCASH S.A.
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
ETEL TELECOM EGYPT
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
R22 R22
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
VRC VERCOM SA
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: EXAE GA; EME Macro/Strategy – Central Asia and the Caucasu...
HEADLINES: • Athens Exchange Group: set sail to dividend wonderland (BUY - transfer of coverage) • EME Macro/Strategy: Central Asia and the Caucasus – USD 1,000bn GDP by 2030! • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one – the Year-Ahead issue • Graphisoft Park: 3Q24 – on course for another good year POSITIVE • Bank Handlowy: rather neutral set of 3Q24 results NEUTRAL • Pegasus Airlines: 3Q24 – 22% higher CASKX alleviated by 4% higher RASK and 12% lower fuel CASK (in line with the consensus) • Bank of...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: Central Asia and the Caucasus – USD 1,000bn GDP by...
In this report, we update our views and forecasts for Georgia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, and extend our forecasts out to 2026E. Real GDP growth should be resilient in the region, with Georgia, most likely, reporting the fastest expansion, at 8.5%, this year, on our estimates. Uzbekistan has been broadly in line with our expectations, with this year’s growth estimated at 6.5% in our forecasts; followed by Kazakhstan, for which we expect growth at 4.0%, despite a negative 1H24. The monetary easin...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – Pegasus Airlines: 3Q24 – 22% higher CASKX alleviated by 4...
Pegasus’ reported results missed our estimates, but were broadly in line with the consensus collected by the company. The EBIT, a proxy for earnings (as it is unaffected by the non-cash FX gains and losses), was 5% lower yoy in 3Q24. Revenues were up by 13% yoy, driven by 9% ASK growth and a 4% stronger RASK. This was offset by the steep increase in costs. The ex-fuel cask (CASKX) was up 22%, driven chiefly by growth in personnel costs. This was alleviated partly by the fuel CASK, which was down...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – Graphisoft Park: 3Q24 – on course for another good year
3Q24 saw another good set of results from Graphisoft Park. The FFO delivery was in line with the same pace as previous quarters, translating into a double-digit FFO yield, one of the highest in the sector. Even after its strong share price performance, the stock is still trading at over a 30% discount to the NAV, and it remains one of our favourite real estate names in CEE. The planned launch of the residential for sale development in the Southern Area of the Park may be positive for momentum. W...
- George Grigoriou
- Marta Jezewska-Wasilewska
- Miguel Dias
Athens Exchange Group: set sail to dividend wonderland (BUY - transfer...
In this report, we transfer coverage of Athens Exchange Group (EXAE), with a BUY rating and an increased price target (PT) of EUR 6.5/share (50.0% upside), from EUR 4.8/share previously. We are constructive on the Greek equity market and expect EXAE to be able to capitalise on the market’s performance in the years to come. We believe that its operating performance should continue to improve and sponsor an attractive EPS growth profile, at a c.11% CAGR over the next 10 years, resulting in improve...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one – the Year-Ahead issue
This week, we discuss the key factors that we expect to shape the economic recovery in the year ahead, and we put forward our amended projections, in light of the recent US presidential election result. Our inflation and GDP forecasts are, on average, below the consensus, except for the US, Greece and Türkiye (to some extent). Europe is at a frail juncture. The data in money and credit developments confirm that the monetary easing is beginning to work through the economy. The labour market is h...
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