reports
- Miguel Dias
- Piotr Raciborski
- CFA
WOOD Flash – EME Strategy: OFEs' 2024 annual holdings
On 15 January, the Polish Pension Funds (OFEs) released their annual holding reports. OFEs’ total net assets grew by 3% yoy; increased exposure to foreign equities and bonds were the main theme in a soft year for Polish equities. There was an excellent performance from the global equity indices in 2024, but Poland underperformed massively. As such, exposure to foreign equities increased by 1.5ppts vs. the total equity portfolio, but the weight of equities in the OFEs’ net assets fell by 2.3ppts ...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: KRU PW; MYTIL GA; PL Macro; PEO PW; HUG PW; GPP PW; GPP PW...
HEADLINES: • Kruk: 2025-29E strategy – ambitious, and sees further growth of earnings, assisted by high ROEs POSITIVE • Metlen Energy & Metals: EUR 0.3bn capex plan to boost alumina capacity by 50% and produce gallium as well POSITIVE • Poland macro: NBP keeps rates unchanged, as expected • Bank Pekao: to add PLN 370m of FX mortgage provision charges, shielded by PLN 103m of deferred tax asset recognition; positive change in NPL stock NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: USD 3.5m impairment of investment in ...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: PCO PW; RO Macro; MTELEKOM HB; VGO PW; BDX PW; CDR PW; ASE...
HEADLINES: • Pepco Group: 1Q25 revenues 6% short of the consensus, on weak Poundland; Pepco lfl back in the black NEGATIVE • Romania macro: NBR extends the pause • Magyar Telekom: to implement 3.7% annual inflation-based fee adjustment from April 2025 POSITIVE • VIGO Photonics: 4Q24 sales up 10% yoy, to PLN 24.1m POSITIVE • Budimex: 4Q24E EBIT guidance below our expectations, but in line with the consensus; strong backlog NEUTRAL • CD Projekt: approves new dividend policy, assuming payout of at ...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: JMT PL; BELA GA; HU Macro; RO Macro; PGSUS TI; RICHT HB
HEADLINES: • Jeronimo Martins: 4Q24 trading statement slightly ahead of our expectations; lfl at Biedronka recovers to +1.1% POSITIVE • Jumbo: top-line growth slows to 2% in December, but still up 6.3% yoy in 2024, as expected NEUTRAL • Hungary macro: inflation jumps, MoF reiterates commitment to fiscal prudence • Romania macro: inflation surprises to the upside again • Pegasus Airlines: strong December traffic POSITIVE • Richter: announces positive top-line results for tocilizumab POSITIVE
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: CCOLA TI; OMV AV; SNP RO; MBR PW; EME Macro/Strategy Weekl...
HEADLINES: • Coca-Cola Icecek: announces 4Q24 volume data and 2025E guidance POSITIVE • OMV: 4Q24 trading statement NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: 4Q24 trading statement NEUTRAL • Mo-BRUK: interview with the CEO NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (6-12 January)
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (6-12 January)
The business surveys for December showed an emerging improvement in economic activity in Türkiye, including in the labour market, which softened somewhat last summer. Most of CEE reported a recent slight rise in the unemployment rate, which we expect to continue in 2025E, but remaining mild in magnitude and indicative primarily of a rebalancing between services and industry. In Romania, S&P has introduced a review of the sovereign credit rating for 24 January, when we expect to see a downgrade o...
- Research Team
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: PKN PW; HUG PW; APR PW
HEADLINES: • Orlen: strategy update 2035 – evolution, rather than revolution NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: collective redundancies to reduce end-2024 headcount by c.28% POSITIVE • Auto Partner: December sales growth at a limited 6% yoy, well below our expectations NEGATIVE
- Jonathan Lamb
WOOD Flash – Orlen: strategy update 2035 – evolution, rather than revo...
Orlen announced a new strategy update yesterday (9 January), laying out management’s targets for 2035E and the path it will take to get there. This strategy update follows a change of management and, so, could have included major changes. In general however, much of the broad sweep of strategic choices resemble those in the previous plan, even though the details have changed. Management is still committed to a progressive dividend strategy, with a minor upward adjustment, which sees the 2025E di...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: PBK RO; THYAO TI; MIL PW; HUG PW
HEADLINES: • Patria Bank: making progress, but still some way to go (stays HOLD) • Turkish Airlines: 8% ASK growth in 2024 NEUTRAL • Bank Millennium: to book PLN 483m of FX mortgage saga provisions in 4Q24E NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: 4Q24 bookings up 7% qoq NEUTRAL
- Marta Jezewska-Wasilewska
- Miguel Dias
Patria Bank: making progress, but still some way to go (stays HOLD)
We have updated and rolled forward our model on Patria Bank (PBK), maintaining our HOLD rating, but with a lower 12M price target (PT) of RON 0.090/share (9.3% upside), from RON 0.095/share. Although 2024E seems to have proven to be a more successful year than we expected previously, we believe it might be hard to replicate that success, and that 2025E might bring some bottom-line and profitability contraction, due to: 1) the still challenged macro backdrop, fuelled by fiscal consolidation, whic...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: TXT PW; TEN PW; PL Telecoms; PL Media; JMT PL
HEADLINES: • Text: key takeaways from the 3Q24-25 preliminary earnings call NEGATIVE • Ten Square Games: 4Q24 bookings down by 2% qoq, slight miss vs. our expectations NEUTRAL • Polish telecoms: mobile number portability in 4Q24 NEGATIVE • Polish media: CPS audience share at 22.72%, while WP TV at 0.72% in December 2024 NEUTRAL • Jeronimo Martins: 4Q24E trading update preview – 5% yoy sales growth expected (due on 14 January) NEUTRAL
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: EU Oil and Gas Monthly; BFT PW; INPST NA; TL Automotive
HEADLINES: • European oil and gas monthly: December 2024 • Benefit Systems: net addition of 151k sports cards in 4Q24, positive surprise abroad POSITIVE • InPost: 20% yoy volume growth in 4Q24; FY24E guidance maintained POSITIVE • Turkish automotive: all-time high light vehicle sales in 2024 NEUTRAL
- Jonathan Lamb
European Oil and Gas Monthly: December 2024
Average crude oil prices changed little in December, after production increases and perceived weakness in demand pushed prices down in November. The WOOD benchmark margin remains above average, despite reaching its lowest level in 2024, after declining by USD 0.7/bbl. Petrochemicals remains in the doldrums, with some product groups marginally better and others marginally worse.
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: EME Macro/Strategy Weekly; TXT PW; SPL PW; DNP PW; ASELS T...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (2-5 January) • Text: 3Q24-25 (calendar 4Q24) preliminary results – MRR of USD 7.10m (+0.9% qoq, +9.4% yoy); 927 net LiveChat customers outflow NEGATIVE • Santander Bank Polska: to book PLN 1,174m of FX mortgage saga provisions in 4Q24E NEUTRAL • Dino Polska: 116 new stores added in 4Q24, shopping space +12% yoy POSITIVE • Aselsan: reorganises MGEO division POSITIVE • The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: positive performances from all indices in D...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (2-5 January)
In recent weeks, Romanian politics have found some stability, after a turbulent time around the cancelled presidential elections. A new government has been sworn in and corrective budget measures were presented at the end of 2024. In Türkiye, the Central Bank delivered a larger-than-expected rate cut, but preserved a positive real interest rate buffer. In Hungary, the MNB will be led by the long-standing Finance Minister Mihali Varga, the AKK president, and a senior State secretary will also joi...
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: positive performances from all ind...
EME Equity Market – December 2024 A green December. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 2.9% in EUR terms and 0.8% in USD terms in December. The Greek ASE Index (+5.5% mom in EUR terms) was the best performer, followed closely by the Czech PX Index (+5.0% mom in EUR terms). Solid performances were also reported by the BET (+2.4% mom), BUX (+2.2% mom) and ISE 30 (+1.5% mom) indices (all in EUR terms). The Polish WIG 20 Index (+0.4% mom in EUR terms) reported a muted performance.
CEZ CEZ AS
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
GEKTERNA GEK TERNA
KTY GRUPA KETY SA
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
ENA ENEA S.A.
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
PGSUS.E PEGASUS HAVA TASIMACILIGI AS
APR AUTO PARTNER SA
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
RICHT RICHTER
19XX NEPI ROCKCASTLE PLC
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
NLBR NLB GROUP
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
PCF PCF GROUP SA
PCO PEPCO GROUP NV
CTPNV CTP NV
GPP GRUPA PRACUJ DA
BCG BALTIC CLASSIFIEDS GROUP PLC
ELPE HELLENIQ ENERGY
4071 ARABIAN CONTRACTING SERVICES CO
AQ AQUILA PART PROD COM
GEV GEVORKYAN A.S.
- Research Team
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: CEZ CP; WIZZ LN; MBK PW; MBR PW; WPL PW; HUG PW; TEN PW; 1...
HEADLINES: • CEZ: government may try to include support for coal plants in draft gas bill NEUTRAL • Wizz Air: extends compensation agreement with PW until YE26 NEUTRAL • mBank: sees PLN 907m of FX mortgage saga costs in 4Q24E NEUTRAL • Mo-BRUK: update on increased fees in Wałbrzych for 2018 NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: agrees to acquire Invia Group for c.EUR 240m POSITIVE • Huuuge Games: December bookings estimate jumps by 18% mom, to USD 13m POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: December bookings estimat...
CEZ CEZ AS
GWI GLOBALWORTH REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS LIMITED
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
PPA PIRAEUS PORT AUTHORITY S.A.
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
FP. FONDUL PROPRIETATEA S.A. GDR (REG S)
TABAK PHILIP MORRIS CR AS
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
HUGE HUUUGE
IGN1L IGNITIS GRUPE
- Research Team
WOOD Flash – Alkaloid AD Skopje/ Hellenic Bank/ ONE United Properties/...
We discontinue our coverage of the following stocks, with immediate effect: Alkaloid AD Skopje Hellenic Bank ONE United Properties Photon Energy Sirma Group Holding Sopharma AD Telecom Egypt We caution against using the forecasts, ratings and price target guidance issued previously on these stocks.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.