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Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: CEZ CP; SIPCHEM AB; OMV AV; PEO PW; OTP HB; TEN PW; HUG PW

HEADLINES: • CEZ: State selects Korea’s KHNP for new nuclear NEUTRAL • Sipchem: 2Q24E results preview (due on 25 July) NEUTRAL • OMV: 2Q24E results preview (due on 31 July) NEUTRAL • Bank Pekao: 2Q24E preview (due on 8 August) • OTP Bank: 2Q24E preview (due on 9 August) • Ten Square Games: 2Q24E adjusted EBITDA down 14% qoq, but up 8% yoy (due on 26 August) • Huuuge Games: 2Q24E adjusted EBITDA down 12% qoq, on lower bookings (due on 5 September) • Short News (PPC)

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: PL IT; EME Macro/Strategy – HU; PEO PW; BOROUGE UH; KOMB C...

HEADLINES: • Polish IT: CVC and Filipiak family plan to announce tender for 34.81% stake in Comarch, at PLN 315.4/share POSITIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: Hungary – budget correction phase not over • Bank Pekao: lowers guidance on cost of credit holidays extension NEUTRAL • Borouge: 2Q24E results preview (due on 31 July) NEUTRAL • Komercni Banka: 2Q24E preview (due on 1 August) • Erste Bank: 2Q24E preview (due on 2 August) • CD Projekt: 2Q24E EBITDA up 57% yoy, but down 25% qoq (due on 28 August) • ...

Alessio Chiesa ... (+2)
  • Alessio Chiesa
  • Raffaella Tenconi

EME Macro/Strategy: Hungary – budget correction phase not over

Last week, the government announced various corrective measures for the budget, including lower spending measures and higher tax changes. Minister of Finance Varga has indicated that the full budget adjustment will be unveiled in the autumn, presumably ahead of the 20 September deadline, when EU countries need to submit their medium-term fiscal plans to the EU Commission. We expect modest consolidation efforts in 2025E and 2026E, despite the reactivation of the fiscal rules in Europe, because we...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: SHO PW; PZU PW; NLBR SV; ADNOCDRI UH; MIL PW; BFT PW

HEADLINES: • Shoper: shifting into a higher gear (upgraded to BUY) • PZU: AGM due to be reconvened on 18 July NEGATIVE • NLB Group: Addiko takeover offer increased to EUR 22.0/share NEUTRAL • ADNOC Drilling: Enersol JV to make new acquisition NEUTRAL • Bank Millennium: 2Q24E preview (due on 26 July, after the close) • Benefit Systems: 2Q24E adjusted EBITDA up 23% yoy, headlines affected by PLN 45m ESOP cost (due on 21 August)

Lukasz Wachelko ... (+3)
  • Lukasz Wachelko
  • CFA
  • Maria Mickiewicz

Shoper: shifting into a higher gear (upgraded to BUY)

We have upgraded Shoper to BUY (from Hold). Our new 12M price target (PT) of PLN 52.6 (+44%) offers 25% potential upside. 1Q24 finally delivered the anticipated growth acceleration, with GMV Stores rising by 15% yoy (recurrent basis), also boosted by the home.pl consolidation. This implies a solid outperformance not only vs. the broader Polish e-commerce market, but also Allegro and Shopify. What is important, in our view, is that the growth acceleration was accompanied by a slight yoy profitabi...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: EME Macro/Strategy Weekly; VGO PW; CCC PW; MBK PW; KRU PW

HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (8-14 July) • VIGO Photonics: 2Q24 sales up 24% yoy, to PLN 22.7m POSITIVE • CCC: refinancing agreement signed, finally; CEO repeats lack of intention to sell his shares POSITIVE • mBank: 2Q24E preview (due on 1 August) • Kruk: 2Q24E preview (due on 27 August) • Short News (HUG)

Alessio Chiesa ... (+2)
  • Alessio Chiesa
  • Raffaella Tenconi

EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (8-14 July)

Last week, most National Statistical offices released their estimates for June’s inflation and May’s industrial output. On the inflation front, there were encouraging indications of moderating CPI pressure, thanks primarily to slowing food inflation in Europe, while lower US inflation was due mostly to energy and housing costs. Industrial production is contracting in most of CEE countries, reflecting weak automotive demand. In Türkiye, the government successfully placed USD 1.25bn of Eurobonds, ...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: KAP LI; AEGN GA; MGROS TI

HEADLINES: • Kazatomprom: to face new tax regime in 2025 and 2026 NEGATIVE • Aegean Airlines: 2Q24 ASK up 10% yoy, 2Q24E RASK may be flat or slightly lower yoy • Migros: real estate sale in Antalya NEUTRAL • Short News (CDR)

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: NOVAL GA; PCO PW; HTO GA; ALARABIA AB; GPP PW; JMT PL

HEADLINES: • Noval Property: a Greek real estate growth story (HOLD - initiation of coverage) • Pepco Group: weak lfl trends continued in 3Q; FY24E EBITDA guidance of EUR 900m maintained NEGATIVE • OTE: Greek government to launch EUR 80m voucher scheme, to boost fibre uptake, in September POSITIVE • Al Arabia Outdoor Advertising: announces establishing of Alarabia Alliances For Smart Advertisement, in partnership with the Saudi Company for Artificial Intelligence NEUTRAL • Grupa Pracuj: new job ...

Jakub Caithaml ... (+2)
  • Jakub Caithaml
  • Peter Palovic

Noval Property: a Greek real estate growth story (HOLD - initiation of...

We initiate coverage of Noval Property with a HOLD rating and a 12M price target (PT) of EUR 3.1/share, implying 12% upside. Noval Property (Noval) is the second-largest REIC in Greece in terms of GAV (as of FY23). Noval owns a c.EUR 0.42bn, 247k sqm GLA standing portfolio of retail assets, offices, hotels, logistics and residential properties, as of YE23. It also owns land and developments worth c.EUR 0.15bn. Currently, more than half of the rental income is consumed by expenses, as Noval incur...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: Georgia macro; KRU PW; WIZZ LN; THYAO TI; PGSUS TI; PEO PW...

HEADLINES: Georgia macro: EU halts accession negotiations Kruk: 2Q24 trading update points to continuation of strong recoveries trends and high investments POSITIVE Wizz Air: Hungary may cancel special tax on airlines, but may introduce fines for delayed and cancelled flights NEUTRAL Turkish Airlines: flies 38% more ASK in 2Q24 vs. 2Q19 NEUTRAL Pegasus Airlines: 2Q24 ASK 53% above 2Q19 levels, international ASK 77% higher NEUTRAL Bank Pekao: finally has a new CEO POSITIVE Mo-BRUK: interview with...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: OTP HB; OMV AV; NLBR SV; EME Macro/Strategy Weekly; SPL PW...

HEADLINES: • OTP Bank: Hungarian government working on extra industry charges to aid budget deficit NEGATIVE • OMV: 2Q24 trading statement NEUTRAL • NLB Group: Alta Pay withdraws request to acquire qualifying holding in Addiko Bank POSITIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (1-7 July) • Santander Bank Polska: 2Q24E preview (due on 24 July) • Alior Bank: 2Q24E preview (due on 2 August) • ING BSK: 2Q24E preview (due on 7 August)

Alessio Chiesa ... (+2)
  • Alessio Chiesa
  • Raffaella Tenconi

EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (1-7 July)

In this report, we resume our macro weeklies, with a slightly different format, to allow for the better monitoring of the economic cycle of our core countries of interest. Last week, in Poland, the Central Bank kept the policy rate unchanged, and raised the possibility of an extension of the current stance until 2026E, on the back of a sharp rise in its food and energy inflation forecasts. In Romania, the MPC began the easing cycle with a 25bps cut, and the government set the dates for the Presi...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: RO Macro; CAR PW; MOH GA; JAHEZ AB; AROBS RO; ARCLK TI

HEADLINES: • Romania macro: NBR delivers first rate cut • Inter Cars: June sales up by a limited 3% yoy, disappointing second month in a row NEGATIVE • Motor Oil Hellas: teams up, reportedly, with Terna Energy for offshore wind in Greece POSITIVE • Jahez: submits transfer request to the main market POSITIVE • AROBS Transilvania Software: completion of Stage 1 of share capital increase and opening of Stage 2 NEUTRAL • Arcelik: potential closure of Yate plant in the UK NEUTRAL • Short News (CPS)

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: European Oil and Gas Monthly; HUG PW; TEN PW; PL Homebuild...

HEADLINES: • European oil and gas monthly: June 2024 – refining margins continue down • Huuuge Games: 2Q24 bookings estimate down 7% qoq NEUTRAL • Ten Square Games: 2Q24 booking estimate down by a limited 3% qoq, slightly better than expected • Polish homebuilders: government to present subsidy plan after the summer • Sipchem: signs contract for EVA plant expansion NEUTRAL • Coca-Cola Icecek: BoD decides to raise paid-in capital by 1,000% bonus issue NEUTRAL

Jonathan Lamb
  • Jonathan Lamb

European Oil and Gas Monthly: June 2024 – refining margins continue do...

Benchmark refining margins retreated again in June, by USD 1.9/bbl to USD 9.5/bbl, remaining about USD 1.4/bbl higher than is usual for the season. The decline was due to weaker petrol cracks, driven by increases in supply, we believe. There was little to report in petrochemicals, with margins mostly flat or down slightly.

Jakub Caithaml
  • Jakub Caithaml

WOOD Flash – NEPI Rockcastle: sells Promenada Novi Sad in Serbia for E...

NEPI Rockcastle (NRP) is selling Promenada Novi Sad, the last building it owns in Serbia. The price for the shopping centre, which NEPI Rockcastle built in 2017-18 for EUR 121m, has been set at EUR 177m. On our estimates, the property will have generated a total IRR of around 13% since 2017, when NEPI Rockcastle started construction. Up until 2023, the shopping centre’s book value was ranging between EUR 120-130m. At the end of 2023, when NRP moved it to “held for sale”, it was revalued at EUR 1...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: PL Macro; NRP NA; TXT PW; MIL PW; APR PW; PL Telecoms; ELM...

HEADLINES: • Poland macro: NBP on a protracted hold • NEPI Rockcastle: sells Promenada Novi Sad in Serbia for EUR 177m POSITIVE • Text: key takeaways from the 1Q24-25 preliminary earnings call POSITIVE • Bank Millennium: to book PLN 518m of FX mortgage saga provisions in 2Q24E NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: June sales growth at 11% yoy, below our expectations NEGATIVE • Polish telecoms: mobile number portability in 2Q24 NEUTRAL • Elm: announces resignation of CEO and new CEO appointment NEUTRAL • Greek...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: TXT PW; MOH GA; ADNOCDRI UH; KRKG SV

HEADLINES: • Text: 1Q24-25 (calendar 2Q24) preliminary results – USD 22.6m preliminary cash flow (up 12% yoy, 4% qoq) POSITIVE • Motor Oil Hellas: to sell EUR 18.2m worth of Ellaktor shares (ELLAKTOR GA), as Reggeborgh exercises call option POSITIVE • ADNOC Drilling: awarded USD 733m contract for three new rigs POSITIVE • Krka: 2018 appeal against EU perindopril anticompetition case overturned NEUTRAL • Short News (HTO)

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: BFT PW; WIZZ LN; HUG PW; TEN PW; Rear-View Mirror – EME ma...

HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: card base in Poland contracts slightly further mom in June NEGATIVE • Wizz Air: flat capacity yoy in June NEGATIVE • Huuuge Games: June bookings estimate down 8% mom, but flat in core titles NEUTRAL • Ten Square Games: June bookings estimate flat mom, slight downward pressure in flagship games NEUTRAL • The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: another positive month for most EME indices • Orange Polska: 2Q24E – 2% yoy EBITDAaL growth expected (due on 23 July) • Short New...

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