reports
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: WOOD's Winter Wonderland 2023 – Postcards from Prague – CE...
HEADLINES: • WOOD's Winter Wonderland EME Conference 2023: postcards from Prague • CEZ: postcard from Prague • Colt CZ Group SE: postcard from Prague • Eurowag: postcard from Prague • Pilulka Lekarny: postcard from Prague • Athens Exchange Group: postcard from Prague • Elbit Systems: postcard from Prague • Siauliu Bankas: postcard from Prague • Budimex: postcard from Prague • CD Projekt: postcard from Prague • Cyber_folks: postcard from Prague • Cyfrowy Polsat: postcard from Prague ...
CEZ CEZ AS
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
BIMAS BIM BIRLESIK MAGAZALAR A.S.
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
BRISA BRISA-BRIDGESTONE SABANCI LASTIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
LOGO LOGO YAZILIM SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
DAT DATAWALK SA
SAB1L SIAULIU BANKAS
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
TRP TERAPLAST
SNP PETROM S.A.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
ELSA SOCIETATEA ENERGETICA ELECTRICA
BVB S.C. BURSA DE VALORI BUCURESTI S.A.
SOKM SOK MARKETLER TICARET AS
CZG CESKA ZBROJOVKA GROUP
PCF PCF GROUP SA
HUGE HUUUGE
WINE PURCARI WINERIES PCL
WPS W.A.G PAYMENT SOLUTIONS PLC
GPP GRUPA PRACUJ DA
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: PL Macro; GR Macro; WOOD's Winter Wonderland 2023 – Postca...
HEADLINES: • Poland macro: NBP extends wait-and-see stance • Greece macro: GDP underperforms in 3Q • WOOD's Winter Wonderland EME Conference 2023: postcards from Prague • Georgia Capital: postcard from Prague • Mytilineos: postcard from Prague • Sarantis: postcard from Prague • Richter: postcard from Prague • 11 bit studios: postcard from Prague • Asseco Poland: postcard from Prague • Benefit Systems: postcard from Prague • Orange Polska: postcard from Prague • Shoper: postcard from Pr...
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
SAR GR. SARANTIS S.A.
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
FP. FONDUL PROPRIETATEA S.A. GDR (REG S)
RICHT RICHTER
M MED LIFE
CGEO GEORGIA CAPITAL
NLBR NLB GROUP
SHO SHOPER SA
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: TXT PW; ETEL EY; ELPE GA; WPL PW; WOOD's Winter Wonderland...
HEADLINES: • Text: 2Q23-24 (calendar 3Q23) preliminary results - EBITDA up 10% yoy, 3% below our estimate NEGATIVE • Telecom Egypt: publishes 2024E guidance - mid double-digit top-line growth expected POSITIVE • HELLENiQ Energy: joint venture ELPEDISON testing market for LNG project • Wirtualna Polska: real users in November 2023 NEGATIVE • WOOD's Winter Wonderland EME Conference 2023: postcards from Prague • Magyar Telekom: postcard from Prague • Dino: postcard from Prague • Eurocash: postc...
- Research Team
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: macro considerations of the energy transition
This report looks, in detail, at the costs and implementation bottlenecks of the energy transition. We start with international agencies' reports, primarily from the IEA, the IPCC and the IMF, as the main sources of long-term projections to derive the required investment needs for part of our coverage universe, primarily CEE. The central scenario, in our view, is of increased governmental commitment ahead, to achieve net-zero emissions, as global warming effects intensify. Nonetheless, we note t...
- Jonathan Lamb
European Oil and Gas Monthly: November 2023 – winter has arrived
Try as it might, OPEC cannot stop the gradual decline in oil prices, even with further cuts. Despite this demand red flag, refining margins remain at close to average levels, with diesel still very strong. In fact, were it not for heavy crudes being sold at a premium to Brent, our benchmark would be much higher. Therefore, we expect refiners to outperform the benchmark by optimising crude oil supplies.
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: TLV RO; BRD RO; EME Macro/Strategy – HU; 4IG HB; CEZ CP; I...
HEADLINES: • Romanian banks: banking in the land of Dracula (Banca Transilvania stays BUY and BRD-GSG stays HOLD - transfer of coverage) • EME Macro/Strategy: Hungary - heading into a brighter 2024E • 4iG: key takeaways from the 3Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • CEZ: completes sale of stake in AKCEZ Enerji NEUTRAL • ING BSK: receives approval for dividend payment NEUTRAL • Kazatomprom: signs contract with Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation to supply uranium • Elm: announces completion of discussio...
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Greek stocks in the lead
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
OPAP GREEK ORGANISATION OF FOOTBALL PROGNOSTICS SA
KRU KRUK S.A.
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
MOL MOL NYRT
CEZ CEZ AS
ACP ASSECO POLAND SA
KRKG KRKA D.D.
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
RBI RAIFFEISEN BANK INTERNATIONAL AG
OMV OMV AG
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
ISCTR TURKIYE IS BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI CLASS C
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
TITK TITAN CEMENT CO. SA
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
BIMAS BIM BIRLESIK MAGAZALAR A.S.
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
DOAS DOGUS OTOMOTIV SERVIS VE TICARET A.S.
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
LAMDA LAMDA DEVELOPMENT S.A.
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
AKCNS AKCANSA CIMENTO
BRISA BRISA-BRIDGESTONE SABANCI LASTIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CIMSA CIMENTO SANYAI VE TICARET A.S.
LOGO LOGO YAZILIM SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CCC CCC SA
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
DOM DOM DEVELOPMENT SA
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
AUG1L AGROWILL GROUP AB
ENA ENEA S.A.
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
TKNSA TEKNOSA IC VE DIS TICARET AS
PGSUS.E PEGASUS HAVA TASIMACILIGI AS
APR AUTO PARTNER SA
TBCB TBC BANK JOINT STOCK CO
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
ARCLK ARCELIK A.S.
THYAO TURK HAVA YOLLARI A.O.
ULKER ULKER BISKUVI SANAYI A.S.
EUR EUROCASH S.A.
GSPARK GRAPHISOFT PARK SE
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
DAT DATAWALK SA
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
BANK OF CYPRUS PCL
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
ETEL TELECOM EGYPT
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
H4L1 HALYK SAVINGS BANK OF KAZAKHSTAN GDR
SNP PETROM S.A.
PBK PATRIA BANK SA
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
COTE CONPET SA
NBGGY NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A. ADS
SNN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA NUCLEARELECTRICA SA
TEL C.N.T.E.E. TRANSELECTRICA
ELSA SOCIETATEA ENERGETICA ELECTRICA
FP. FONDUL PROPRIETATEA S.A. GDR (REG S)
BVB S.C. BURSA DE VALORI BUCURESTI S.A.
GEB BANK OF GEORGIA
TGN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE TRANSPORT GAZE NATURALE TRANSGAZ S.A.
RICHT RICHTER
ALPHA ALPHA BANK
M MED LIFE
SFG SPHERA FRANCHISE GROUP SA
PTKHY PETKIM PETROKIMYA HOLDING AS
ADNOCDIST ADNOC DISTRIBUTION PJSC
SOKM SOK MARKETLER TICARET AS
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
NLBR NLB GROUP
ESLT ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
ADKO ADDIKO BANK
ILRA-R-A ILIRIJA D.D.
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
CZG CESKA ZBROJOVKA GROUP
DUNAHOUSE DUNA HOUSE
INPST INPOST S.A.
PCF PCF GROUP SA
HUGE HUUUGE
ALR ALRO SLATINA
WINE PURCARI WINERIES PCL
4IG 4IG NYRT
PCO PEPCO GROUP NV
CTPNV CTP NV
ONE ONE UNITED PROPERTIES SA
ADNOCDRILL ADNOC DRILLING CO
AROBS AROBS TRANSILVANIA SOFTWARE SA
2381 ARABIAN DRILLING CO.
9526 JAHEZ INTERNATIONAL CO
ELPE HELLENIQ ENERGY
SHO SHOPER SA
4071 ARABIAN CONTRACTING SERVICES CO
H2O HIDROELECTRICA S.A.
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: Hungary – heading into a brighter 2024E
The economy has climbed out of the recession this year, on the back of a modest 0.6% expansion in the first three quarters, which fell short of the MNB’s expectations, but was a slightly better outcome, versus our bleak forecast of a 1% contraction. That said, the outlook for next year is brighter, with a backdrop more conducive for consumption, and further monetary easing allowed by receding inflation. Hence, we see growth picking up to 2.6% next year, with some downside risks arising from stag...
- Can Demir
- Marta Jezewska-Wasilewska
- Miguel Dias
Romanian Banks: banking in the land of Dracula (Banca Transilvania sta...
We remain constructive on the Romanian banks, thanks to a positive macro outlook, which we expect to translate into: 1) a pick-up in loan book development; 2) no abrupt rate cuts, allowing for a smooth transition and a margin normalisation; 3) no major asset quality deterioration; and 4) subsiding inflationary pressures. Moreover, the banks remain very well-capitalised, which should, we believe, in theory, allow for stable dividend payments in the years to come, in the absence of any misstep. No...
- Piotr Raciborski
- CFA
WOOD Flash – 4iG: 3Q23 results and takeaways from the call
Yesterday (30 November), after the close, 4iG reported its 3Q23 results. We see the outcome of the results and the conference call as neutral. We note that the qoq EBITDA drop was driven by a strong base, fuelled by a one-off gain on the sale of certain elements of DIGI HU’s mobile network: the net impact of one-off items on the 2Q23 EBITDA stood at HUF 14.0bn. The miss vs. our forecasts reflected primarily the differences in holding costs and other operating income results vs. our figures, as w...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: CIMSA TI; MTELEKOM HB; TEN PW; EME Macro/Strategy – CIS pl...
HEADLINES: • Cimsa: sustainable growth, with a global view (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Magyar Telekom: fastest-growing EMEA telecom (stays BUY) • Ten Square Games: improved short-term outlook, but long-term challenges (stays HOLD) • EME Macro/Strategy: CIS plus - top growth in our markets, again • 4iG: 3Q23 review - solid results, with 32% yoy pro-forma EBITDA growth NEUTRAL • Duna House: 3Q23 - doubles down on Italy with the Professione Casa acquisition NEUTRAL • AUGA Group: 3Q23 - wor...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: CIS plus – top growth in our markets, again
Our CIS frontier countries are set to remain on an enviable macroeconomic trajectory in the next two years. They are at the top of our WOOD universe growth outlook, with inflation trends mostly under control and solid reform plans for the coming years. In more detail, the available data for the second half of 2023E show a good economic performance across the CIS countries under our coverage, but more volatile, somehow, and generally on a moderating trend (albeit from very high levels). We see so...
- Atinc Ozkan
- Piotr Raciborski
- CFA
Magyar Telekom: fastest-growing EMEA telecom (stays BUY)
We reiterate our BUY rating on Magyar Telekom (MTELEKOM) and raise our price target (PT) to HUF 969/share (from HUF 546), implying 61% upside potential. We see MTELEKOM as an outstanding growth story in the telecoms space, with an expected 2022-25E EBITDA CAGR of 15%, the highest growth in EMEA, apart from Turkey, which is facing hyperinflation. In our view, the growth generated by MTELEKOM should be driven by: 1) CPI-linked price hikes; 2) customer base expansion; and 3) the abolition of the sp...
- Dmitry Vlasov
WOOD Flash – Jahez: approves split of company’s shares
Yesterday (30 November), Jahez announced the voting results of the extraordinary general assembly meeting, which included the approval of a stock split. The company has split the nominal value of the shares from SAR 10/share to SAR 0.50/share. As a result, the number of shares is 209,836,060, from 10,491,803, while the capital remains unchanged. Following the stock split, our updated price target (PT) is SAR 35.2/share.
- Can Yurtcan
- Dmitry Vlasov
Cimsa: sustainable growth, with a global view (BUY - initiation of cov...
We initiate coverage of Cimsa with a BUY rating and a 12M price target (PT) of TRY 45.3. Since 2020, Cimsa has evolved successfully into a globally diversified building materials company through strategic acquisitions and greenfield investments, with a focus on sustainability remaining at the heart of this transformative journey. The company's unique strength lies in its diversified business model and extensive global reach, which set it apart from other global building material producers, in ou...
- Maria Mickiewicz
- Piotr Raciborski
- CFA
Ten Square Games: improved short-term outlook, but long-term challenge...
We maintain our HOLD rating on Ten Square Games (TEN). Our new 12M price target (PT) of PLN 100 offers limited 11% potential upside. We have cut our 2023-25E revenue forecasts by 21-31%, but our EBITDA changes are more limited, at 8-15%, to reflect the substantial cost optimisation undertaken this year, and TEN’s focus on its core titles. We assume the scaling up of Wings of Heroes only in 2025E (5% of our bookings forecast). While 3Q23 proved solid, we believe the increased volatility remains, ...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: EME Macro/Strategy – Year Ahead; CCC PW; CAI AV; PCF PW; O...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: 2024 - a year of transition and a still tight labour market • CCC: 3Q23 slightly above prelims; sales acceleration in 4Q23E, but FY23E guidance cut NEGATIVE • CA Immo: 3Q23 - results (yet again) given material boost by disposals POSITIVE • PCF Group: uninspiring 3Q23, broadly as expected NEUTRAL • OMV: signs long-term LNG supply agreement with Cheniere • OMV: Borealis to acquire a Bulgarian plastics recycling company • DIGI Communications: reaches prelimina...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: 2024 – a year of transition and a still tight labo...
The strongest conviction we have for the coming year is that inflation will be lower than most expect, and it will continue to decelerate, notwithstanding a very tight labour market. Consumption has the potential to recover in the Eurozone and in central Europe, but much depends on confidence, which appears, currently, to be stuck at modest levels, because consumers are genuinely constrained in terms of purchasing power. European policymakers have committed to ambitious multi-year transitions: t...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: CDR PW; ESLT US; EME Macro/Strategy – TL; EME Macro/Strate...
HEADLINES: • CD Projekt: slight positive surprise in 3Q23 adjusted EBITDA, solid Phantom Liberty sales to date POSITIVE • Elbit Systems: 3Q23 results and earnings call POSITIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: Turkey - resilient growth in the face of higher rates • EME Macro/Strategy: Greece - so far, so good, a preview of the next leaps forward • Mo-BRUK: El Kajo deal offers strong revenue and EBITDA addition potential POSITIVE • PCF Group: decision to limit scope of Project Dagger NEGATIVE • Polish u...
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