reports
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: MOH GA; GPW PW; TEN PW; BFT PW; HUG PW; ALR PW; ACP PW; RI...
HEADLINES: • Motor Oil Hellas: 4Q25 net earnings and dividend beat; strong refining drives FCF POSITIVE • Warsaw Stock Exchange: solid operational delivery in 4Q25, bottom line miss on impairment charges, communicated ahead of results NEUTRAL • Ten Square Games: 4Q25 adjusted EBITDA 11% below the market consensus; management recommends PLN 10.0 DPS NEUTRAL • Benefit Systems: 4Q25 earnings call takeaways NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: 4Q25 earnings call takeaways NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: wants to pay a DPS...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: OMV AV; BFT PW; HUG PW; DIGI RO; GEKTERNA GA; EME Macro/St...
HEADLINES: OMV: Strait-up winner (stays BUY) Benefit Systems: 4Q25 miss on adjusted EBIT; supportive update of 2025-27E strategy POSITIVE Huuuge Games: 4Q25 adjusted EBITDA above expectations, DTC channel continues to grow POSITIVE DIGI Communications: takes steps to enter UK telco market NEUTRAL GEK Terna: increases EYDAP stake to 12.8% POSITIVE EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (13-19 March) Austriacard: expands US footprint with new card personalisation facility POSITIVE
- Bram Buring
- CFA
- Jonathan Lamb
OMV: Strait-up winner (stays BUY)
We maintain our BUY on OMV, with an updated price target (PT) of EUR 70.2 (from EUR 61.7), offering upside of 19.0%. The conflict in the Persian Gulf has pushed margins up across OMV’s business and we expect these effects to continue, even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Temporary closures at petchems producers are driving margins. The Borealis/Borouge merger is almost upon us and OMV should benefit from high margins across the portfolio. OMV has growth projects which should be completed soo...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (13-19 March)
The US-Iran conflict has progressed and has led us to revise up our inflation projections, in line with the guidance we published at the inception of the conflict. Today, we present a first attempt on a scenario of a protracted conflict, which covers the whole year and would most likely trigger rate hikes. We have two surveys available so far that capture the impact of the conflict on businesses and consumers – their message is of caution, but not imminent spending cuts. We flag that pockets of ...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: IGN1L LH; ZAB PW; CDR PW; CAR PW; LPP PW; DSPW CP; CZG CP;...
HEADLINES: • Ignitis Group: steady as she goes (stays BUY) • Zabka: beat in 4Q25; FY26E guidance of continued rapid expansion and stable profitability POSITIVE • CD Projekt: 4Q25 results review – beat related to other operating income and income tax POSITIVE • Inter Cars: 4Q25E preview – 16% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 28 April) • LPP: 4Q25E results preview – 32% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 26 March) NEUTRAL • Doosan Skoda Power: 4Q25 above our expectations, backlog in line, materi...
- Bram Buring
- CFA
- Jakub Bronicki
Ignitis Group: steady as she goes (stays BUY)
We reiterate our BUY on Ignitis and increase our 12M price target (PT) to EUR 26.8/share. We continue to like the company’s stable business model and high earnings predictability: RES operates under fixed-priced PPAs/CfDs, while both the Networks and Reserve Capacities segments are highly regulated. Following a period of elevated investments in 2023-25 (c.EUR 2.5bn), which increased RES capacity from 1.2 GW to 2.1 GW, we expect lower capex in 2026E (EUR 599m, at the lower bound of the guidance)....
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: JMT PL; RBW PW; 11B PW; OPTIMA GA; ACAG GA
HEADLINES: • Jeronimo Martins: miss in 4Q25 on other financial costs; flat yoy capex guidance for 2026E, DPS proposal yields 3% NEUTRAL • Rainbow Tours: impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East on operations NEUTRAL • 11 bit studios: 4Q25E preview – EBITDA to decline by 32% qoq (due on 20 April) • Optima Bank SA: non-binding EUROXX Securities offer worth up to EUR 65.5m NEUTRAL • Austriacard: 2025E preview (due on 23 March)
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: THEON NA; INPST NA; DAT PW; CBF PW; VRC PW; SHO PW; APR PW...
HEADLINES: • Theon International: model update due to KAPPA and Exosens deals (stays BUY) • InPost: 4Q25 well below expectations due to the UK; only flat FY26E EBITDA guidance NEGATIVE • DataWalk: preliminary 4Q25 results – sales down 26% yoy, to PLN 6.68m NEGATIVE • cyber_Folks: final 4Q25 group results fully in line with preliminaries NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: management recommends DPS of PLN 0.15 from 2025 earnings NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: announces dividend proposal NEUTRAL • Trade Estates: FFO u...
- Atinc Ozkan
- George Grigoriou
Theon International: model update due to KAPPA and Exosens deals (stay...
Following its 4Q25 trading update (16 February) and the recent investor call (10 March), we roll over our Theon International (Theon) model and update our estimates, incorporating the recently-completed M&A deals (KAPPA Gmbh and Exosens) in January 2026, the EUR 150m rights issue (in December 2025) and the FY26E management guidance. Our revised 12M price target (PT) of EUR 40.5/share (EUR 37.6/share previously) offers 28% potential upside, and we maintain our BUY on the stock.
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: MBK PW; BHW PW; DOM PW; TPE PW; BDX PW; BFT PW; INPST NA; ...
HEADLINES: • mBank: bid or no bid? • Bank Handlowy: solid 4Q25, giving support to strong dividend yield expectations NEUTRAL • Dom Development: 4Q25 – a good end to a record year NEUTRAL • Tauron: preliminary 4Q25 EBITDA 7% below our expectations, following provisions in the Supply segment; adjusted EBITDA 11% above our forecast POSITIVE • Budimex: KIO orders rejection of company’s offer in Rail Baltica tender NEGATIVE • Benefit Systems: PLN 40.6m provision to be created in the 4Q25E results NEG...
- Marta Jezewska-Wasilewska
WOOD Flash – mBank: bid or no bid?
UniCredit has issued a statement, announcing the launch of a voluntary exchange offer for Commerzbank shares, aimed at exceeding a 30% stake in the German bank. UniCredit added, in the statement, that its intention is not to achieve a controlling stake. This bid may have material implications for Commerzbank’s subsidiary, mBank. Looking at mBank’s share price performance today, we see that the market is trying to price in a potential mandatory bid for up to a 100% stake in mBank, as the stock is...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: EME Macro/Strategy – EEMEA; BDX PW; WPL PW; EWG LN; KZ Mac...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: the state of consumption in EEMEA • Budimex: PKP PLK cancels selection of the company’s offer in PLN 1.1bn rail tender NEGATIVE • Budimex: offer selected in PLN 300m PSE tender for expansion of Gdańsk Błonia substation NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: write-down of Szallas Group assets reduces WPL's operating result by PLN 150m NEGATIVE • Wirtualna Polska: accounting policy change increases dividend capacity by c.PLN 518m NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: 4Q25E preview upda...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
WOOD Flash – Kazakhstan macro: constitutional reform lays groundwork f...
Yesterday (15 March), Kazakhstan voted on a new constitution, proposed by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev last September. The early results indicate around 87% support (with the voter turnout at 73.24%), broadly in line with the pre-referendum polling (close to 90%), making the outcome largely expected, in a not very competitive election. While the constitutional package is broad and, as with most structural reforms, includes both positive and controversial elements, the key implication lies els...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – Aegean Airlines: 4Q25 – below both our and the consensus ...
With its comfortable liquidity position and hedges for c.60% of anticipated fuel consumption in place, we do not expect Aegean to run into serious problems, unless the disruption to travel, from the war and the high level of fuel prices, becomes very protracted. However, it is too early to assess the impact on this year's earnings, which could be significant – among other things, we may see Aegean redeploying the capacity flying previously to the Middle East to elsewhere in its network (which wo...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: the state of consumption in EEMEA
Despite solid real wage growth and healthier household balance sheets, private consumption growth post 2022 has recovered less briskly and with more volatility than what has been seen in past recovery periods. Subdued consumer sentiment and only gradual improvements in perceived inflation have encouraged households to build larger savings buffers. The Iran conflict poses downside risks to consumption growth, if the conflict persists beyond a few months, by 1-2ppts slower spending in the coming y...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: AEGN GA; PEO PW; PGE PW; OPAP GA; TL Macro
HEADLINES: • Aegean Airlines: 4Q25 – below both our and the consensus estimates • Bank Pekao: management proposes PLN 19.77 DPS • PGE: URE orders PLN 605m payment to the Price Difference Payment Fund NEUTRAL • OPAP: online competition in Greece set to intensify as Superbet preps market entry NEGATIVE • Türkiye macro: CBT on hold, as expected
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: PKO PW; ALE PW; PKN PW; CEZ CP; CZG CP; SNP RO; SAR GA; MO...
HEADLINES: • PKO BP: solid 4Q25 numbers – small bottom-line beat, but underlying trends in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Allegro: 4Q25 above the consensus; FY26E guidance in line with our expectations POSITIVE • Orlen: submits new non-binding offer for Grupa Azoty Polyolefins NEUTRAL • CEZ: small 4Q25 beat on EBITDA, 2026E guidance below the consensus NEGATIVE • Colt CZ Group: planning dual AEX listing and a capital increase POSITIVE • OMV Petrom: two exploration projects in Bulgaria now NEUT...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
WOOD Flash – EEMEA macro: further thoughts on the energy crisis and co...
It is legitimate to wonder how the current conflict in Iran may develop, going forward, and what parallel/lessons we could draw, compared to the inception of the Russia/Ukraine conflict in 2022. Back in 2022, the economies in EEMEA were in an inflationary phase: the COVID-19 stimulus was strong, labour shortages were significant, and the double energy-fertilisers shock added significantly to inflation momentum. Currently, most of EEMEA is running a negative output gap, the labour markets are tig...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: BIMAS TI; ENA PW; TPE PW; PGE PW; GPW PW; FTSHP CP; MOL HB...
HEADLINES: • BIM: 4Q25 results – strong beat POSITIVE • Enea: preliminary 4Q25 EBITDA 25% below expectations on Supply one-offs; adjusted EBITDA 2% below forecast NEUTRAL • Enea / Tauron: URE orders additional payments to the Price Difference Payment Fund NEUTRAL • PGE: completes acquisition of 350 MW Bałtyk II offshore wind project from RWE NEUTRAL • Warsaw Stock Exchange: PLN 10.7m impairment losses to spoil otherwise strong quarter (due on 23 March) NEGATIVE • Footshop: preliminary 4Q25 resul...
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
SAR GR. SARANTIS S.A.
ENA ENEA S.A.
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
GSPARK GRAPHISOFT PARK SE
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
19XX NEPI ROCKCASTLE PLC
CTPNV CTP NV
KLKIM KALEKIM KIMYEVI MADDELER SANAYI VE TICARET AS
SPLUS SHOPPER PARK PLUS ZRT
FTSHP FOOTSHOP A.S.
GEV GEVORKYAN A.S.
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – CEE real estate: yields cheat sheet
The majority of European real estate seems to have sailed through the rate hikes surprisingly smoothly. There appears to be a broad consensus among companies and realtors that the trough in values may have passed, and that 2026E may see a continued transaction volume recovery, led by prime assets. Valuations are broadly expected to be income driven, with limited room for yield compression, as rates remain stable. Investors appear selective, favouring prime, core assets; while secondary, older st...
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