View 
FILTERS (0)
* Not connected to ResearchPool

MORE FILTERS

  
reports
Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: IIA AV; SGH BU; TL Macro; PEO PW; DAT PW; CPS PW; PL Retai...

HEADLINES: • Immofinanz: will they, won't they, when? (upgraded to HOLD) • Sirma Group Holding: ambitious agenda, fair valuation (stays HOLD) • Turkey macro: CBT on hold • Bank Pekao: guides to book full two-year mortgage holiday costs in 2Q22E NEUTRAL • DataWalk: sells additional licences to PKN Orlen and Ally Financial POSITIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: AGM decides on PLN 1.2 DPS vs. PLN 1.0 management board recommendation POSITIVE • Polish retail: another profit warning, on tough macro conditions...

Jakub Caithaml ... (+2)
  • Jakub Caithaml
  • Ondrej Slama

Immofinanz: will they, won’t they, when? (upgraded to HOLD)

Immofinanz’s shares have dropped by nearly 40% since the expiration of the CPI offer at the end of May. Trading at a c.50% discount to its EPRA NTA, the stock is likely trading below fair value – even when taking into account the weak profitability, the adverse macro outlook and the risk of write-downs ahead. That said, we now see Immofinanz as a special situation investment. The future actions of CPI matter more, in our view, than the underlying fundamentals. We believe CPI is, at some point, l...

Pawel Wieprzowski ... (+4)
  • Pawel Wieprzowski
  • PhD
  • Piotr Raciborski
  • CFA

Sirma Group Holding: ambitious agenda, fair valuation (stays HOLD)

We keep our HOLD rating on Sirma Group Holding (Sirma), but hike our 12M price target (PT) from BGN 0.45/share to BGN 0.84/share (2% upside potential). The solid 1Q22 EBITDA (+19% yoy), supported by the acquisition of Sciant in December 2021 (2021 net profit of c.BGN 1m vs. BGN 4.5m for Sirma Group), should allow for deleveraging (on our numbers, the net debt/EBITDA drops from 1.8x in 2021 to 0.7x at end-2024E). Hence, we expect the company to start distributing regular dividends: we pencil in B...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: PL Banks; KTY PW; PL Macro; CZ Macro; CEZ CP; PPC GA; TPE ...

HEADLINES: • Polish Banks: conditional BUYing opportunity (PKO BP, Bank Pekao, Santander BP, mBank, ING BSK, Bank Millennium, Alior Bank, Bank Handlowy) • Kety: 2Q22 preliminary EBITDA beats consensus, 2022E forecasts hiked POSITIVE • Poland macro: inflection point • Czech Republic macro: last of the outsized rate hikes • CEZ: PM Fiala presents support for energy consumers and comments on energy market transformation POSITIVE • Public Power Corporation: may receive PSO payment, regulator to d...

David Lojkasek ... (+2)
  • David Lojkasek
  • Marta Jezewska-Wasilewska

Polish Banks: conditional BUYing opportunity (PKO BP, Bank Pekao, Sant...

The WIG Banks index has sunk by 35% ytd. In this report, we try to work out what has been priced in by such a profound derating. In our view, this move has already priced in the potential cost of: i) the private IPS contribution; ii) the credit holidays (we assume a 66% take-up rate); and iii) the Mortgagors Support Fund contribution, and keeps a cautious stance with regards to the trading multiples for the banks with CHF mortgage exposures. On top of this, we have also tried to forecast 2023E a...

Alessio Chiesa ... (+2)
  • Alessio Chiesa
  • Raffaella Tenconi

WOOD Flash – Czech Republic macro: last of the outsized rate hikes

At its meeting yesterday (22 June), the MPC at the CNB decided to raise the key rate by 125bps, to 7.00%. This move was well reported by the MPC prior to the blackout period, but still exceeded what both we and the consensus expected. Looking ahead, an increasingly dovish MPC will convene for its next meeting in August, with the aim of keeping rates on hold. However, this will be a challenge, given the restrictions on gas supply from Russia, which will drive inflation further. On the back of thi...

Alessio Chiesa ... (+2)
  • Alessio Chiesa
  • Raffaella Tenconi

WOOD Flash – Poland macro: inflection point

We are close to completing the repricing of interest rates for both the policy rate and the local 10-year bond yields. We see the probable peak for the NBP’s reference rate at 7.00%, with a maximum tolerable rate of 8.50% in the event of severe disruptions due to energy shortages; while, for the local bond yields, we suspect that we are at the peak already, at around 8%, consolidating towards 5.5-6% in 2023E. The GDP and consumption performance stayed strong in 2Q, but early signs of strain in h...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: PETG SV; SNP RO; DIGI RO

HEADLINES: • Petrol Group: 2022E profit warning issued • OMV Petrom: discussions among political parties to temper the increase in fuel prices • OMV Petrom: Executive Board approves share capital increase NEUTRAL • DIGI Communications: CityMesh Mobile JV to build fourth mobile network in Belgium NEUTRAL • Short News (CPS, PEN, SNP)

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: MOL HB; GR6 BU; RO Banks; GPW PW; CIE PW; PL Telecoms

HEADLINES: • MOL: a multi-faceted, 3D Hungarian puzzle (stays BUY) • Gradus: inflation hedge (but not cheap) (stays HOLD) • Romanian banks: details on the proposed moratorium NEUTRAL • Warsaw Stock Exchange: receives PFSA's approval to launch Global Connect POSITIVE • Ciech: adopts 2022-24 management incentive programme POSITIVE • Polish telecoms: Play sells 50% stake in FiberForce for PLN 1.775bn POSITIVE • Short News (CIE, CEZ, EBS)

Jonathan Lamb ... (+2)
  • Jonathan Lamb
  • Ondrej Slama

MOL: a multi-faceted, 3D Hungarian puzzle (stays BUY)

We maintain our BUY rating on MOL with an updated 12M price target (PT) of HUF 3,590 (from HUF 3,123), offering 25.0% upside. In the last few months, MOL has been the beneficiary of a number of developments and the victim of a number of others. This makes its prospects difficult to assess, in our view. After twisting and turning the puzzle from each angle, we have concluded that, on balance, the upside has it. We see the cost of price caps reaching HUF 544bn in 2022E and the windfall tax costing...

Alex Boulougouris ... (+4)
  • Alex Boulougouris
  • CFA
  • Pawel Wieprzowski
  • PhD

Gradus: inflation hedge (but not cheap) (stays HOLD)

We keep our HOLD rating on Gradus, cutting our 12M price target (PT) slightly, to BGN 1.30/share (1% upside potential), from BGN 1.46/share. We see the company as a play on growing consumer inflation, and it should be able to pass the higher costs of production onto its clients, especially given its leading position in the Bulgarian poultry market. This results in a 2021-24E EBITDA CAGR of 13%, according to our forecasts. Moreover, we appreciate that the company has a very strong balance sheet (...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: LTS PW; LWB PW; CEZ CP; MTELEKOM HB; PLZL LI

HEADLINES: • Lotos: announces conditional dividend distribution POSITIVE • Bogdanka: Treasury kicks off acquisition of Enea's shares • CEZ: announces acquisition of Skoda JS, its major nuclear fleet supplier • Magyar Telekom: acquires fibre network covering 110k access points for HUF 6.95bn NEUTRAL • Polyus: buys 100% stake in Chulbatkan gold deposit from Highland Gold Mining POSITIVE • Short News (SNP, SNG, TGN)

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: HMX1R LR; RO Macro; SAR GA

HEADLINES: • HansaMatrix: LightSpace opportunity discounted unjustly (stays BUY) • Romania macro: PSD supports 0.5% tax on turnover for companies with sales above EUR 100m NEUTRAL • Sarantis: agreement to sell 49% stake in Estee Lauder JV • Short News (WINE)

Bram Buring ... (+4)
  • Bram Buring
  • CFA
  • Piotr Raciborski
  • CFA

HansaMatrix: LightSpace opportunity discounted unjustly (stays BUY)

Updating our estimates after the 1Q results, we have cut our price target (PT) by c.20%, to EUR 8.88/share, but we maintain our BUY rating, with upside of c.34%. Component availability remains the business’ key operational headwind, we believe. Recently, management noted that c.20% of orders are delayed due to a lack of crucial parts and, regardless of the full order book, deliveries will remain affected throughout 2H22E. As a knock-on effect, the extended delivery times are, in our view, impair...

Alessio Chiesa ... (+2)
  • Alessio Chiesa
  • Raffaella Tenconi

WOOD Flash – Europe macro: ECB – what was not said, but will be eventu...

The ECB held an extraordinary meeting yesterday (15 June) and reiterated its commitment to fighting fragmentations, using flexibility in the reinvestment of PEPP, and confirming that committees will speed up the completion of the design for the anti-fragmentation instrument. The key question is what is the tolerable range for the 10-year sovereign yield for the ECB that can be an equilibrium between the inflation challenges, a tolerable interest rate level that does not put public debt in the Eu...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: WIZZ LN; EEG1T ET; US Macro; EU Macro; EBS AV

HEADLINES: • Wizz Air: investing in the future (stays BUY) • Ekspress Grupp: taking profits after a stellar performance (downgraded to HOLD) • US macro: Fed opts for bold message and a 75bps hike • Europe macro: ECB - what was not said, but will be eventually • Erste Bank: Mr. Cernko appointed new CEO of the group • Short News (CIE)

Alessio Chiesa ... (+2)
  • Alessio Chiesa
  • Raffaella Tenconi

WOOD Flash – US macro: Fed opts for bold message and a 75bps hike

The FOMC at the Fed has decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 75bps, to 1.50-1.75%, which was expected. The underlying message from the meeting was hawkish and reaffirmed that the Committee has stepped up its efforts to restore inflation back to its target. The FOMC now expects the tightening cycle to peak at 3.75-4.00% next year, which appears high, in our view, given the tightening in financial conditions and the demand-sapping impact of inflation.

Pawel Wieprzowski ... (+4)
  • Pawel Wieprzowski
  • PhD
  • Piotr Raciborski
  • CFA

Ekspress Grupp: taking profits after a stellar performance (downgraded...

Since our most recent update on Ekspress Grupp, in December 2021, the company is up 20% (total return), outperforming both the TALSE index and the MSCI FM index. We have raised our 12M price target (PT) to EUR 1.82/share but, given the upside potential of just 7%, we have downgraded the stock to HOLD (from Buy). We like that it disposed of its low-margin printing business in 2021, which has strengthened its digitalised media-based business foundations; and that it is in the process of selling th...

Alex Boulougouris ... (+3)
  • Alex Boulougouris
  • CFA
  • Jakub Caithaml

Wizz Air: investing in the future (stays BUY)

After the war in Ukraine started, we reiterated our BUY call on Wizz Air (WIZZ). We severely underestimated the impact that high fuel prices and the deterioration of the macro outlook would have on the sentiment surrounding the stock. Operationally, we saw a risk of WIZZ being unable to ramp up its staff to >6k in time, ahead of the summer. While WIZZ has delivered, airports and ATC are facing staff shortages, causing delays. Combined with the unfortunately-timed decision to discontinue fuel hed...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: SNP RO, CZ macro, HU macro, 11B PW, LPP PW, BNET RO

OMV Petrom: proposes special dividend Czech Republic: worsening trade leads to a further deterioration of the current account Hungary: April current account: no surprises or improvements 11 bit studios: Annual Investor Conference takeaways LPP: 1Q22 slightly below prelims due to the sale of the Russian business, FY22E guidance maintained Bittnet Systems: sells a 12% stake in Dendrio to Agista for RON 7.5m

Loading...
New interest

Save your current filters as a new Interest

Please enter a name for this interest

Email alerts

Would you like to receive real-time email alerts when a new report is published under this interest?

Save This Search

These search results will show up under 'Saved searches' in the left panel

Please enter a name for this saved search

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch