reports
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: Czech Republic - strong fundamentals anchor politi...
ERRATUM: The report we released yesterday, 24 September, contained a typo on page 14, related to the cost of a hypothetical takeover of the remainder of CEZ which, at the current valuation, could cost CZK 250bn, equivalent to 3% of GDP. We have corrected the error, but the message we wanted to convey is unaltered: such a transaction is worth approximately 3% of GDP 2025E, a meaningful amount if borne by the State. We apologise for the inconvenience caused, Raffaella.
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: PCO PW; BELA GA; THEON NA; Czech Republic macro; EWG LN; P...
HEADLINES: • Pepco: lfl recovery continued in 4Q25, with Poland falling behind W. Europe; another EUR 50m buyback announced POSITIVE • Jumbo: 1H25 earnings slightly lower than expected - adj. EBITDA +7% yoy to EUR 165m NEGATIVE • Theon International: wins another sizeable OCCAR contract POSITIVE • Czech Republic macro: CNB on hold • Eurowag: TA Associates completes GBP 56m ABB • PZU: new acting CEO appointed, pending PFSA approval NEUTRAL • Banca Transilvania: proposes an extraordinary DPS of RO...
- Dmitry Vlasov
WOOD Flash - Baltic Classifieds Group: trading commentary ahead of 202...
BCG has released some commentary ahead of its 2025 AGM, later today (24 September). The Estonian market is proving to be tougher than expected. The new car tax continues to hold back demand, and the early signs of recovery have stalled, which has had a negative impact on Auto 24’s revenues. We view this as negative for our financial forecasts, as we had expected 15% revenue growth in FY26E (+14% yoy on the consensus estimates), and the recovery has been delayed. Nevertheless, our long-term view ...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: EME Macro/Strategy; MBK PW; MUR PW; Hungary macro; Energy;...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: Czech Republic - strong fundamentals anchor politics • mBank: Capital Markets Day - key takeaways POSITIVE • Murapol: 2Q25 results above expectations, strong OCF and new offer slowdown POSITIVE • Hungary macro: MNB on a protracted pause • Energy: Kirkuk pipeline set for restart POSITIVE • Jumbo: 1H25 results preview (due out today, after the close) • Short News (ROE1L)
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: Czech Republic - strong fundamentals anchor politi...
The Czech economy is showing remarkable resilience, against a complicated external backdrop and a painful structural consolidation of the European auto sector, including protracted stagnation in Germany, its close trading partner. Some of the resilience, in our view, is emerging from the defence ramp-up in the EU, as well as the fact that the household sector has accumulated robust cash buffers. The upcoming elections are likely to heighten uncertainty in coming months, as several controversial ...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: KTY PW; AIRA LI; MUR PW; ADNOCDIS UH
• Kety: preliminary 3Q25 results, and a summary of the meeting with the CFO NEUTRAL • Air Astana: may buy aircraft from Boeing • Murapol: settles PLN 51.8m in dividend tax, following an audit, with reimbursement expected from AEREF NEUTRAL • ADNOC Distribution announces interim dividend NEUTRAL
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: MBR PW; GTC PW; OTE/DIGI Communications; EMEA Airlines; WI...
HEADLINES: • Mo-BRUK: growth acceleration priced in already (downgraded to HOLD) • GTC: moves to amend terms of the two outstanding Forint bonds • OTE/DIGI Communications: Telekom Romania sold to DIGI and Vodafone for EUR 70m POSITIVE • EMEA Airlines: flights cancelled in Europe over weekend due to cyberattack on airport software • Wizz Air: strike on 26 September may disrupt operations in Italy NEGATIVE • Huuuge Games: earnings call takeaways NEUTRAL • Titan: Fidelity Investments cuts ownership...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (15-21 September)
Last week, the European Commission proposed bringing forward the full ban on Russian LNG to January 2027, and introducing trade restrictions on Chinese and Indian companies aiding the circumvention of sanctions. The Fed delivered a dovish cut, citing rising labour market risks. Across CEE, wage growth slowed, while industrial production showed a modest improvement. In Poland, consumer sentiment strengthened, industrial output picked up and core inflation eased; while, in Czechia, producer prices...
- Jakub Bronicki
- Maria Mickiewicz
Mo-BRUK: growth acceleration priced in already (downgraded to HOLD)
We have downgraded Mo-BRUK (MBR) to HOLD (from Buy), having reduced our 12-month price target (PT) to PLN 321 (vs. PLN 393 previously), which offers a limited 11% potential upside. We have cut our 2025-27E adjusted EBITDA forecasts by 13-16%, on the back of our lower profitability assumptions, given the higher cost pressure than assumed previously (mostly external services and salaries), as well as weaker revenue in the solidification and stabilisation segment. While we expect 2H25E to be visibl...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: RO Energy; EME Macro/Strategy – Türkiye; HUG PW; NOVAL GA;...
HEADLINES: • Romanian Oil & Gas: still beyond the horizon (OMV Petrom downgraded to HOLD, Romgaz stays HOLD) • EME Macro/Strategy: Türkiye – twin deficits ameliorate, challenges persist • Huuuge Games: 2Q25 in line with expectations, USD 120m share buyback announced POSITIVE • Noval Property: 1H25 – FFO seems en route to exceed FY guidance POSITIVE • Auto Partner: 2Q25 earnings call takeaways – to test new small warehouse in Germany NEUTRAL • Bank Handlowy: to pay extra dividend in October POSIT...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Raffaella Tenconi
EME Macro/Strategy: Türkiye – twin deficits ameliorate, challenges per...
The economy delivered an overall strong performance in the first half of this year, despite the tight monetary policy, with retail sales, services, industry and construction all expanding at a faster pace than in 1Q, with a decent outlook from the high frequency indicators in 3Q so far. On the bright side, disinflation is continuing and should reach 29-30% by 2025E eop, and this has opened the door for a somewhat aggressive rate-cutting cycle for the CBT. The fiscal deficit has narrowed to 3.5% ...
- Bram Buring
- CFA
- Jonathan Lamb
Romanian Oil & Gas: still beyond the horizon (OMV Petrom downgraded to...
In place of delays and cost overruns, the news on Neptun so far has been reassuring: first well spudded, platform under construction, and the start date unchanged. Nonetheless, we still have a two-year wait for completion. In the meantime, gas prices have been trending lower and oil prices are under pressure. Further deregulation in 2026E should free up the prices paid for gas, following power prices this year. We see the return of Russian gas as an outlier, which would crash gas prices. Romgaz ...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – Noval Property: 1H25 – FFO seems en route to exceed FY gu...
Noval has reported good results, with a decent chance of the FFO exceeding the company's guidance for the year, in our view. With the net LTV at 20% and cash exceeding EUR 50m, we believe that Noval should try to: 1) streamline its portfolio via the disposal of small, non-core assets; and 2) accelerate the development of its land reserves. This would improve the portfolio quality, the recurring income, and the ROE, in our view.
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – Lamda Development: 2Q25 – yield compression drives malls ...
The malls and marinas results are in line with our estimates. The Ellinikon capex accelerated to EUR 100m in 2Q25 – good, but an even faster rate of deployment is still needed. A material revaluation gain was booked in 2Q25, driven by yield compression at the existing malls. Bottom line: nothing in the 2Q25 results comes close in importance to the huge land sale that Lamda agreed recently.
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: ALE PW; CZG CP; MAVI TI; ECH PW; APR PW; LAMDA GA; GEV CP;...
HEADLINES: • Allegro: 1Q25 results spot on our expectations; lower bound of FY25E guidance increased POSITIVE • Colt CZ Group: 2Q25 results – slightly below the consensus; no changes in FY25E guidance • Mavi: 2Q25 results miss expectations; 2025E guidance lowered NEGATIVE • Echo Investment: 2Q25 – sales could unlock net cash equivalent to one-third of market cap • Auto Partner: 2Q25 EBITDA broadly in line with our and the market's expectations NEUTRAL • Lamda Development: 2Q25 – yield compressio...
- Peter Palovic
WOOD Flash – GEVORKYAN: 2Q25 broadly in line; updated 2025-29E guidanc...
GEVORKYAN’s 2Q25 results were broadly in line with our estimates, and the company has upgraded both its 2025E and long-term (2025-29E) guidance. For 2025E, at the midpoint, the new guidance implies a 5% increase in revenues and a 15% increase in the EBITDA vs. the previous (May) guidance. For the mid-term, our 2025-27E estimates remain in line with the bottom end of GEVORKYAN’s guidance; however, if executed successfully, it could provide additional upside for our forecasts. Importantly, the upg...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – Aegean Airlines: 2Q25 in line; cash flow contracting; gui...
Aegean's 2Q25 numbers are fully in line with our estimates. The operating cash flow after leases is down by around 30% compared to the previous two years. However, the guidance on the summer sounds optimistic, and offers possible upside for our ASK estimate for 3Q25E. This may, however, may be offset by the RASK being slightly weaker in 3Q25E, reportedly (we have been pencilling it in as flat yoy). The company is guiding for a brisk 9% seat growth in 4Q25E, which could indicate some upside for t...
- Research Team
WOOD Morning (17 September 2025)
HEADLINES: • Noval Property: 1H25 – FFO en route to exceed our FY estimate POSITIVE • Aegean Airlines: 2Q25 in line; cash flow contracting; guidance encouraging NEUTRAL • Tauron: 2Q25 results fully in line with the preliminaries NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: special dividend proposal POSITIVE • Shoper: acquires remaining 40% stake in Sempire for PLN 15m, as expected NEUTRAL • Solutions by STC: signs framework agreement with Saudi Aramco POSITIVE
- Research Team
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: EME Macro/Strategy Weekly; GR Macro; DIGI RO; CGEO LN; JAH...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (8-14 September) • Greece macro: debt remains on a steep downward path • DIGI Communications: planning IPO of its Spanish subsidiary, reportedly POSITIVE • Georgia Capital: healthcare business prices GEL 350m bond offering NEUTRAL • Jahez: buyback approved during EGM (3.6% of total shares) NEUTRAL • Mavi: 2Q25E earnings preview (due on 17 September) • Short News (CDR, CAR)
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