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Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: EME macro/strategy, Fintel Energija (stays BUY), AD Plasti...

HEADLINES: • EME macro/strategy: shock therapy to curb inflation, but test institutions and keep FX pressure high • Fintel Energija: growth without windfall taxes or price caps (stays BUY) • AD Plastik: fairly valued until the risks fade away (stays HOLD) • Polish banks: resolution procedures begin for Getin Noble Bank • PKO BP and PZU: are buying shares in PKN Orlen from the State Treasury NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: to pay PLN 53m into the mortgagors' support fund in 2022E NEUTRAL • PCF Group: ...

Alex Boulougouris ... (+3)
  • Alex Boulougouris
  • CFA
  • Ondrej Slama

AD Plastik: Fairly valued until the risks fade away (stays HOLD)

We maintain our HOLD rating on AD Plastik, but reduce our 12M price target (PT) to HRK 84 (from HRK 88), implying 9% upside. We now see slightly higher EU revenues in 2022E and 2023E, but scale down Russia, following the announcement of the partial mobilisation, which we expect to affect both supply and demand negatively. With our 80% yoy drop in Russian sales this year, and no improvements in 2023E, we believe the downside potential from the Russian market remains limited, with only a new wave ...

Alessio Chiesa ... (+2)
  • Alessio Chiesa
  • Raffaella Tenconi

EME Macro/Strategy: Shock therapy to curb inflation, but test institut...

Over the last few weeks, the sharp hawkish message of the Federal Reserve, and the worsening of the tensions between the EU/US and Russia, have sharply escalated the risk that we are heading for a global downturn of the severity of the 2008 crisis, and the complexity of the 2020 pandemic. The data available show that, in September, the economic slowdown that was beginning to become apparent in August has accelerated and has spread to all sectors. The energy crisis is forcing all the EU member st...

Bram Buring ... (+3)
  • Bram Buring
  • CFA
  • Ondrej Slama

Fintel Energija: Growth without windfall taxes or price caps (stays BU...

We reiterate our BUY rating on Fintel Energija with a new price target (PT) of RSD 858/share (down from RSD 868), implying 34% upside. In our July report, we highlighted that Fintel’s earnings were not being boosted by rallying power prices. With EU windfall tax discussions to exploit generators’ revenues, and also, in some countries, net profit, we now see Fintel as one of the safest picks in terms of its upside, earnings outlook and capacity growth, as we are not aware of any measures planned ...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: CD Projekt (downgraded to SELL), ALE PW, PKN PW/PGN PW, CD...

HEADLINES: • CD Projekt: unjustified premium to its peers (downgraded to SELL) • Allegro: 2Q22E results in line with the prelims; FY22E guidance upper range trimmed (again) POSITIVE • PKN Orlen: EGM approves the merger with PGNiG • CD Projekt: 20m Cyberpunk copies sold to date NEUTRAL • Petrol Group: Geoplin awaits capital raise or nationalisation • Fondul Proprietatea: Hidroelectrica postpones the decision regarding the acquisition of CEZ Vanzare • Hungary macro: twisting policies helps, b...

Maria Mickiewicz ... (+3)
  • Maria Mickiewicz
  • Piotr Raciborski
  • CFA

CD Projekt: Unjustified premium to its peers (downgraded to SELL)

We are downgrading CD Projekt from Hold to SELL, and slash our 12M price target (PT) by 54% to PLN 96.0 (implying 8% downside). We believe the market has overreacted to the recent positive newsflow around the release of Cyberpunk: Edgerunners on Netflix. While we recognise the success of the anime series, we believe the related boost to the number of Cyberpunk 2077 copies sold may be only temporary, neither changing the medium-term outlook materially, nor making the valuation multiples look attr...

Raffaella Tenconi
  • Raffaella Tenconi

WOOD Flash – Hungary macro: twisting policies helps, but may not resol...

The Monetary Policy Council of the Central Bank of Hungary (MNB) raised the policy rate by 125bp to 13.00%, at its meeting on 27 September. The decision was in line with our expectations but higher than the 100bp hike that consensus was anticipating. Importantly, the bank has called an end to its hiking cycle via the policy rate, and has announced its intention to shift the focus onto tightening liquidity and enhancing monetary transmissions. The MNB has finetuned its projections, but the MPC no...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: Turkish oil and gas (TUPRS stays BUY, PETKM downgraded to ...

HEADLINES: • Turkish oil and gas: margin calls (Tupras stays BUY, Petkim downgraded to HOLD) • Hungary macro: MPC raises the policy rate to 13.00% and signals a shift of focus • mBank: to book PLN 2.3bn in FX mortgage litigation risk provisions in 3Q22E NEUTRAL • Echo: 2Q22 results - strong margin on apartments handed over, low overheads, small revaluation loss POSITIVE • Grupa Pracuj: key takeaways from the 2Q22 earnings call POSITIVE • Kofola: key takeaways from the Seznam Zprav interview wi...

Jonathan Lamb ... (+2)
  • Jonathan Lamb
  • Ondrej Slama

Turkish Oil and Gas: margin calls (Tupras stays BUY, Petkim downgraded...

We have downgraded Petkim from a BUY to a HOLD, with an updated 12M price target (PT) of TRY 13.8 (from TRY 5.49), while we maintain our BUY recommendation on Tupras, with an updated 12M price target (PT) of TRY 380.3 (from TRY 191.9). Tupras is benefiting from high refining margins, and is reducing its debt levels and replenishing reserves, opening the way for a return of dividends in 2023E (from the 2022E earnings). Petkim, however, is seeing margins under pressure and is likely to pay the las...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: estimates of the potential Polish windfall tax (PL banks, ...

HEADLINES: • Polish banks: potential impact of the possible 50% windfall tax on all larger Polish companies • Polish utilities: estimates of the effect of the potential windfall tax POSITIVE • Polish retail: possible windfall tax seems to have marginal impact NEUTRAL • Polish TMT: potential implications of the windfall tax NEGATIVE • Polish real estate: potential implications of the windfall tax • Cognor Holding: potential implications of the windfall tax NEGATIVE • Grupa Pracuj: 2Q22 results ...

Aidar Ulan ... (+2)
  • Aidar Ulan
  • Ondrej Slama

AUGA Group: favourable macro, green triggers imminent (stays BUY)

We keep our BUY rating on AUGA, with a new 12M price target (PT) of EUR 0.70/share (from EUR 0.66), implying 70% upside. AUGA’s mushroom business is now fighting high energy costs, and the growth potential of its FMCG segment is being slowed by the difficult global situation. However, with notable improvements in its dairy segment and a stronger yoy crops result, we see a very good year ahead for the company overall. Moreover, in 4Q22E, the company plans to launch its first biomethane unit that ...

Alessio Chiesa ... (+2)
  • Alessio Chiesa
  • Raffaella Tenconi

WOOD Flash – EME Macro/Strategy: Italy macro – implications of the par...

The Italian electorate has spoken: the centre-right coalition will control the majority of seats in both chambers, but it has failed to win a strong mandate in terms of the popular vote, or an overwhelming majority to change the Constitution.

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: HB CY; 11B PW; PCF PW; PL Utilities; PGN PW; PEO PW; MBK P...

HEADLINES: • Hellenic Bank: the best is yet to come (stays BUY) • 11 bit studios: strong preliminary 2Q22 results, well above both our and the market's expectations POSITIVE • PCF Group: proposed termination of cooperation with Take-Two on the production of Project Dagger NEGATIVE • PCF Group: preliminary 2Q22 EBITDA well below both our and the market's expectations NEGATIVE • Polish utilities: Minister Sasin proposes utilities windfall tax NEGATIVE • PGNiG: signs 10-year gas supply contract wi...

Alex Boulougouris ... (+3)
  • Alex Boulougouris
  • CFA
  • Can Demir

Hellenic Bank: the best is yet to come (stays BUY)

We have increased our price target (PT) for Hellenic Bank to EUR 1.80/share (from EUR 1.0/share) to account for the higher ECB rates. The bank has a loan to deposit ratio of c.40%, a EUR 7.2bn cash balance with the ECB (37% of total assets) and EUR 4.7bn of debt securities. We believe that the boost in the NII from the rate bonanza will not be eaten away by a higher cost of risk, and we expect the ROTE to spike to >12% in 2023E, from c.8% in 2022E. The stock is up 11% ytd, but remains extremely ...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: GR6 BU; TL Macro; CZG CP; SHO PW; POLY LN; SNN RO; KRU PW;...

HEADLINES: • Gradus: finger lickin' good, but not at this price (SELL - transfer of coverage) • Turkey macro: CBRT likely heading for single-digit rates • Colt CZ Group SE: 2Q22 earnings and conference call POSITIVE • Shoper: results call takeaways - management sees room for profitability improvement POSITIVE • Polymetal: 1H22 financial results - no dividends, RU assets disposal complicated NEGATIVE • Nuclearelectrica: shareholders approve strategy for implementation of NuScale SMRs Project N...

Aidar Ulan ... (+3)
  • Aidar Ulan
  • Bram Buring
  • CFA

Gradus: finger lickin’ good, but not at this price (SELL – transfer of...

Due to a change in analyst responsibilities, we transfer coverage of Gradus with a SELL rating and a 12M price target (PT) of BGN 0.97/share, or 30% downside. We have reflected the recent 2Q results and market trends, which have led us to believe that Gradus is headed towards a tougher 2H22E. Poultry and egg prices have plateaued at peak levels ytd but, with rising energy costs and elevated feed prices, we believe Gradus is likely to face difficulties in passing input cost inflation onto its cli...

Alessio Chiesa ... (+2)
  • Alessio Chiesa
  • Raffaella Tenconi

WOOD Flash – Turkey macro: CBRT likely heading for single-digit rates

The Monetary Policy Committee at the CBRT decided to cut the policy rate (1W repo) again by 100bps to 12.00%, at the meeting held yesterday (22 September). The decision was in line with our expectations, but came as a surprise to the consensus, which expected no change. Monetary policy strategy has clearly been geared in favour of growth and to the detriment of inflation, and will likely remain so at least until next year’s elections, in our view. Given the emerging signs of slowdown amidst the ...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: EME Macro/Strategy – US Macro; SHO PW; SPL PW; PEO PW; PKO...

HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: US macro - may be heading for 6% rates and recession • Shoper: 2Q22 adjusted EBITDA broadly in line with preliminary figure NEUTRAL • Santander Bank Polska: sees increase in OSII buffer - cross-read for Bank Pekao • PKO BP: sees OSII hike to 200bps (up from 100bps) • Polyus: 1H22 financial results - in line with consensus EBITDA, further pressure ahead NEUTRAL • Short News (COTE, SNP, SNG)

Alessio Chiesa ... (+2)
  • Alessio Chiesa
  • Raffaella Tenconi

WOOD Flash – EME Macro/Strategy: US macro – may be heading for 6% rate...

The FOMC at the Fed has raised the federal funds rate by 75bps, to 3-3.25%, in line with expectations, but also delivered a very hawkish comment, signalling that the FOMC will aim to bring real rates into positive territory as a core objective of bringing inflation in line with the target. If this strategy is observed, there are severe upside risks for the policy rate outlook and the US will enter a significant recession next year. The new dot plot shows that interest rates will continue to rise...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: BIMAS TI; MGROS TI; SOKM TI; HB CY; PGE PW; FP RO; EL RO; ...

HEADLINES: • Turkish food retailers: battered for the wrong reasons (BIM and Migros stay BUY; Sok Marketler upgraded to BUY – transfer of coverage) • Hellenic Bank: 2Q22 - another solid quarter, the best is yet to come POSITIVE • PGE: 2Q22 results review - fully in line with prelims NEUTRAL • Fondul Proprietatea: calls EGMS to approve Hidroelectrica listing and buyback for 2023 NEUTRAL • Electrica: provides some clarification on the regulatory methodology • NLB Group: issuance of additional T...

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