EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (11-17 August)

Negotiations on the potential future end of the Russia-Ukraine war appear to have progressed constructively during the Alaska meeting between President Trump and President Putin. The first estimate of 2Q real GDP in Poland was in line with expectations and consistent with a growth pace of 3.5% this year. In Romania, the flash estimate of 2Q real GDP revealed an improvement on a seasonally-adjusted basis, but the monthly signals for 3Q confirm a pronounced slowdown, starting with consumption. Inflation surprised us to the upside, suggesting that the passthrough from the fiscal measures are materialising faster than we had anticipated, and could push the peak of inflation close to 10.5% yoy. Fitch affirmed Romania’s credit rating. In Türkiye, the inflation report, in our view, reveals more realistic projections for this year and details the pockets of economic slowdown that are unfolding. US CPI and PPI reveal a gradual pick-up pace in inflationary pressure, due largely to the tariff uncertainty, while the moderation in consumption is not yet strong enough to trigger a downward revision in the inflation outlook. The Atlanta Fed nowcasting model is stable, at 2.5% yoy for 3Q.