EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (30 June-6 July)

This week’s highlights include: continued monetary policy recalibration across CEE; renewed fiscal tightening in Romania; and mixed signals on growth and inflation in the region and beyond. In Poland, the MPC delivered another rate cut, while flagging a more cautious path ahead. Hungary’s industrial sector remains under pressure, with political implications taking shape. In the US, fiscal stimulus and resilient GDP data stand against weakening consumer sentiment. Romania confirmed a significant fiscal package, raising the risk of a policy rate hike. Türkiye’s inflation undershot expectations, opening the door to potential easing. Meanwhile, inflation trends in the Caucasus and Central Asia remain, with upward risks to the outlook, according to the respective Central Banks. Still, the June data were a mixed bag, with an uptick in Georgia, to 4.0%, Uzbekistan stable around mid-8.0%, and Kazakhstan edging close to 12%, but close to its likely peak.