Report
Bram Buring, CFA ...
  • Dmitry Vlasov
  • Jonathan Lamb

Kazatomprom: soft metal still rocks (stays BUY)

We maintain our BUY on Kazatomprom (KAP), with an updated price target (PT) of USD 63.8 (from USD 61.6), offering upside of 18.1%. Uranium prices have fallen from triple figures, but remain close to USD 70/lb, a level that we consider sustainable. Supply has increased, but is still below demand. We expect production in 2026E to remain below capacity, but 2027E and 2028E should bring big increases in volumes. KAP is experiencing inflationary pressures on costs, but should moderate, with higher volumes and cheaper acid. With its core business investment needs small, KAP could invest overseas or in other parts of the value chain. It has a balance sheet capable of significantly higher investments, but these may reduce its ability to pay dividends. Dividends are based on the free cash flow and we see a moderate rise in 2025E and bigger increases from 2027E-onwards. We see KAP trading at P/Es of 9.9x for 2025E and 8.0x for 2027E, on our forecasts.
Underlying
National Atomic Company Kazatomprom

Provider
Wood and Company
Wood and Company

WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.

A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.

Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.

We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.

Analysts
Bram Buring, CFA

Dmitry Vlasov

Jonathan Lamb

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