WOOD Flash – TBC Bank: 3Q25 results and conference call highlights

TBC has reported 3Q25 net income of GEL 368m, 5% above our estimate and broadly in line with the consensus, Compared to our forecasts, lower costs and provisions made up for the somewhat weaker than expected core revenues (1% lower NII and 7% lower fees vs. our forecasts). Management acknowledged that the full-year earnings may fall slightly below the GEL 1.5bn guidance, due to slower momentum in Uzbekistan, where regulatory-driven loan book rebalancing and elevated levels of COR continue. In Georgia, the performance remains solid and broadly on track with our full-year estimate, although not strong enough to compensate for the softer results in Uzbekistan. Overall, this was not the strongest quarter for TBC, as Uzbekistan continues to prove a bumpier venture than expected initially. However, we believe the 10-11% slump in the stock looks like an overreaction to these results, as we explain in this flash note. We have a HOLD rating on TBC, with a GBP 53.1 PT. The stock trades at 5.3x P/E and 1.3x P/TBV for 2025E, on our current estimates.