WOOD Flash – Poland macro: rates unchanged, and some positive news
The Monetary Council kept the reference rate unchanged, at 4.00%, coherent with the cautious tone introduced by NBP President Glapinski last month. The press statement released by the MPC refrained from offering explicit forward guidance. In the preliminary reading, inflation slipped below the 2.5% target in December 2025, to 2.4%, and the forward-looking pricing surveys, as well as food inflation, point to a further softening in the near term. On a positive note, some very early signs of a positive turnaround in the labour market have begun to appear, which should, over time, support renewed positive momentum in consumer spending, compared to the recent volatile sideways pattern. We see some room for an additional 100bps of rate cuts over the next 12-15 months, to compress the implied real policy rate lower, to 1%, with the next 25bps rate cut most likely materialising in March, with the new NBP forecasts.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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