WOOD Flash – Romania macro: a frail situation
The election period of 2024 has proved significantly more challenging than previous elections, and recent events show that we are not close to the end of the difficulties. The new parliamentary season begins today (20 December), and was meant to deliver an appointed government by the end of next week. The four pro-EU parties (PSD, PNL, USR and UMDR) have formed an alliance and released a policy agenda that signals the continuity of intent towards advancing the RRF reform schedule and improving the fiscal trajectory of the country. However, over the past few days, the pro-EU alliance has broken down: USR claims interest, but is not participating in the formation of the next government; and PSD announced yesterday (19 December) that it is withdrawing from the coalition negotiations. These events imply that a coalition of only PNL and UMDR would be significantly short of seats in parliament for a majority and, therefore, cannot be seen as credible in delivering the necessary policies to keep Romania on track for reforms and budget prudence.
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