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Q4 DEC'20 S&P - ThE Q4 report for technical analysis & trade strategy
Open - 3360.0, 12th Oct 3493.0 target met..Despite the strong Feb-Mar sell-off, for the 7th quarter in a row signals going into Q3 were bullish. These were confirmed as all our topside targets were met with sentiment posting a 2nd higher quarterly low in a row and a gain of 500 Pts. There is the potential for pullbacks, but these should be temporary and the outlook for Q4 remains bullish and the call is to buy only modestly on the open and then at 3198.0, September’s low with a stop loss at 2880.0, a 50% pullback to the Mar-Sep gains. Targets are to 3493.0, September’s open, 3587.0, September’...
WEEKLY DEC'20 DAX - This week's technical analysis & trade strategy
DEC'20 contract - A rising trend of higher monthly lows is positive for sentiment and our bullish forecast for Q3 has been confirmed. However, with sellers returning to the market in September from ahead of 13538.0, the window which has remained open since a weekly close at February’s record high, last week’s signals switched to a bearish bias and the call to stay square on the open and to sell the rally at 13258.0 was moderately successful. Despite closing with an up week, signals for this week continue to point temporarily lower and the call is to sell only modestly on the open and then at 1...
WEEKLY JUN'20 DAX - This week's technical analysis & trade strategy
Jun'20 contract - Having identified the previous 4 week sell-off, last week’s signals were unusual as they pointed to both buying the dip and to selling the rally. This was the correct interpretation as an initial 500 Pt sell-off attracted buyers, but for the rally to attract sellers on Friday and for sentiment to deteriorate by over 600 Pts from the top. This week’s signals are pointing lower, but any pullback should be temporary, so with a good deal of caution the outlook is negative and the call is to sell on the open and then at 9950.0 with a stop loss at 10352.0, the last 3 week Marabuzo ...
DAILY MAR'20 DAX - Thursday's trade idea and technicals
MAR'20 Contract – Bearish signals on the week have been confirmed with initial losses of over 350 Pts. However, with intraday sentiment oversold and buyers returning to the market on Tuesday from close to 13182.0, the 8th Jan Marabuzo line, yesterday’s call was to stay square on the open and to sell the rally. This was the correct strategy, as initial gains were given up and for sentiment to close little changed on the day. Sellers have returned to the market in Asia this morning and with signals continuing to point lower the outlook for Thursday remains bearish and the call is to sell on the ...
Weekly GOLD - This week's technicals and trade idea
A near 60 Pt failed weekly rally to open this year and the formation of weekly and daily Shooting Stars highlights bullish exhaustion and is negative for sentiment. However, the pullback is probably corrective and temporary, and buyers returned to the market last week. Although gains have so far been modest and are testing 1573.6, a 50% recovery to the losses posted since this year’s top, signals for this week continue to point higher and the call is to buy on the open and then at 1558.0, the 13 day average rate with a stop loss at 1545.9, the 15th Jan base. Targets are to 1582.5, a deeper 62%...
SPOT USDCAD - meeting targets but still bearish
All of our downside weekly targets were met yesterday as Tuesday’s minor renewal of selling pressure was followed by a negative acceleration. Canadian news was the driver of already bearish sentiment. This move took USDCAD to new 2 ½ year lows and a correction of half of the 2012-16 improvement. Of course, the speed and scope of the fall leaves intraday signals for sentiment oversold despite a firm bounce from the extremes. Nonetheless the tone is clear and so, this morning’s call is a modest Sell from 7am but leaving room to Sell any Rally to 1.2276. The risk is 1.2320, intraday Marabuzo line...
SPOY USDJPY - sell into expected bounce
A sequence of lower daily highs & lows kept Tuesday’s signals for USDJPY pointing lower. These were confirmed with a strong over 1 Big Fig sell-off. Although there is no sign that the deterioration is ending, prices are trading back towards the 2017 low trades posted in Apr & Aug at just above 108.00 the Fig., which is likely to make bears increasingly cautious and the potential for a temporary bounce is high. With this in mind but with signals still pointing lower the outlook for Wednesday is to stay square on the open and to sell the rally at 109.27, Tuesday’s Marabuzo line with a stop loss ...
SPOT GBPUSD - signals pointing lower
Immediate signals for sentiment are not strong as the oscillation around the 13 day mvg avg continued Monday. Friday’s minor net gains were reversed but the resulting downside was not deep enough to break below the 13 day mvg avg. This price action means intraday studies are weak but our intraday technical studies are assessed as mildly negative. Therefore, with caution, this morning’s call is a Sell but leaving room to Sell any Rally to 1.2967, yesterday's high. The risk is last week's 1.2996 high with an immediate target of 1.2905, Friday’s low. A move through that point then exposes sentime...
WEEKLY SPOT CABLE - end to lower weekly highs keep signals pointing to further gains
In line with our positive forecast, the previous week's indecisive price action was followed by investor demand. This upside was muted with the bulk of the price action fluctuation around the 13/100/200 day mvg avg area. But modest demand at the beginning and end of the week creates a positive bias that we look for to be important in the coming days. In view of this, our call for this week is a Cautious Buy from the open but leaving room to also Buy any Dip to 1.2871, the 100 day mvg avg. The risk is 1.2774, August’s base, with an immediate target of 1.3023, the 3 week top. A move through that...
SEP'17 FTSE - signals continue to point higher
Sep'17 Contract – Bullish signals for FTSE on the week and for Thursday have been confirmed, investors buying futures yesterday to post a 2nd higher daily low & high in a row and a gain of 69 Pts. Although this is positive and there is no sign that demand is ending, daily signals for sentiment are volatile. With this in mind the outlook for Friday is just cautiously bullish and the call is to buy only modestly on the open and then at 7402.0, Thursday’s Marabuzo line with a stop loss at 7370.0, yesterday’s low. Targets are to 7440.0, yesterday’s high, 7467.0, the 10th Aug top and 7496.5, last m...
Weekly GOLD - This week's technicals and trade idea
A near 60 Pt failed weekly rally to open this year and the formation of weekly and daily Shooting Stars highlights bullish exhaustion and is negative for sentiment. However, the pullback is probably corrective and temporary, and buyers returned to the market last week. Although gains have so far been modest and are testing 1573.6, a 50% recovery to the losses posted since this year’s top, signals for this week continue to point higher and the call is to buy on the open and then at 1558.0, the 13 day average rate with a stop loss at 1545.9, the 15th Jan base. Targets are to 1582.5, a deeper 62%...
DAILY SPOT GOLD - Tuesday's trade idea and technicals
A near 60 Pt failed weekly rally to open this year, followed by last week’s failed modest sell-off has left this week’s signals mixed and neutral. Monday’s trading reflected investor caution, as despite posting a 4th higher daily low & high which is positive for sentiment, the market traded mainly sideways in light volume for a little changed close. Buyers have returned to the market in Asia this morning however and with signals pointing higher the outlook for Tuesday is bullish and the call is to buy on the open and then at 1560.5, just above today’s Asia low with a stop loss at 1556.2, yeste...
DAILY Spot Gold - Wednesday's trade idea and technicals
Tuesday’s signals were bearish and pointed to selling the rally at 1548.0. While this was the correct strategy. as initial gains were given up and for a sequence of higher weekly & daily lows to be ended, sentiment traded mainly sideways for only a modest down-day. The sell-off since last weeks near 7 year top at 1611.4 is probably corrective and it is attracting buyers from close to the 13 day average rate. Improving sentiment in Asia has subsequently left a cautiously bullish bias to signals and the outlook for Wednesday is to buy on the open and then at 1546.9, today’s Asia low with a stop ...
DAILY Spot Gold - Wednesday's trade idea and technicals
A 73 Pt sell-off since this month’s near 6 ½ year top at 1557.3 has attracted buyers back to the market from close to 1479.0, a 50% pullback to the entire August gains and this week’s signals have continued to point higher. Tuesday’s signals were also bullish, and these too were confirmed as the dip was bought at the low and for sentiment to rally by 20 Pts. A sequence of higher daily lows has been extended which is positive for sentiment, but with shorter-term signals overstretched there is the potential for profit taking pullbacks. These should be temporary and the outlook for Wednesday rema...
DAILY SPOT GOLD - Thursday's call and technicals
All our weekly targets have been met as in line with daily signals which have continued to point higher, investors bought the market on Wednesday to post a 4th higher daily low & high in a row and a gain of 36 Pts. A fresh over 6 year top at 1510.4 has kept daily signals for sentiment much overstretched and the potential for a profit taking pullback is high. Weakness into the close and modest selling in Asia this morning hasn’t offered a clear bearish reversal pattern, but there is a cautiously negative bias and signals for Thursday are pointing temporarily lower and the call is to sell on the...
DAILY SPOT AUDUSD - Friday's trade idea and technicals
Bearish signals on the week are being confirmed, but with the downside stalling on Wednesday with prices testing their 50 & 100 day average rates, Thursday’s signals pointed to staying square on the open and to either selling the rally or down through the 100 day line. Neither level was met as sentiment traded sideways inside the previous days range for an unchanged close. However, buyers have returned to the market in Asia this morning and with signals improving the outlook for Friday switches to cautiously bullish and the call is to buy on the open and then at .6858, today’s opening trade in...
WEEKLY GBPJPY - This week's trade idea and technicals
For the 3rd week in a row sentiment last week has traded sideways and inside the last 4 week range which has also traded inside the 5 week range. October’s 11 Big Fig rally has stalled at the 20 month average rate which is potentially negative, but so far dips have been limited to the 200 day line. Trend signals subsequently remain weak, but for this week there is a cautiously positive bias and the call is to buy on the open and then at 139.46, last week’s low with a stop loss at 138.51, the 200 day line. Targets are to 141.36/51, October’s highs, 143.50 and 146.51, May’s top.
DAILY SPOT EURJPY - Thursday's call and technicals
This week’s signals have pointed to staying short and selling the rally. Yesterday’s outlook was also bearish but for the 3rd day in a row sentiment has traded mainly sideways for modest losses. Although October’s over 4 Big Fig rally has taken prices above their 50 & 100 day average rates which is positive for sentiment, topside impetus has stalled in November ahead of the 200 day line. Losses into Wednesday’s close have been extended in Asia this morning and with signals continuing to point lower the outlook for Thursday remains bearish and the call is to sell on the open and then at 120.60,...
DAILY SPOT NZDUSD - Thursday's call and technicals
For the 4th day in a row sellers have been unable to force a daily close below the 50 day average rate, buyers returning to the market yesterday from close to .6339, a 50% pullback to the gains posted since the last 2 week low and sentiment improving to post a gain of almost ½ Big Fig. Further buying in Asia this morning keeps signals pointing higher and the call is to buy on the open and then at .6388, today’s opening trade in Asia with a stop loss at .6368, the 13 day average rate. Targets are to .6437/52, Oct & Sep highs, .6476, the 11 week top and .6539, the last 12 week opening trade.
DAILY SPOT USDJPY - Thursday's call and technicals
A rising trend of higher daily lows and highs and improving sentiment above the 50 & 100 day average rates have kept this week’s signals pointing higher. Wednesday’s signals were also bullish and these too have been confirmed as the trend was extended, but with prices closing little changed at Tuesday’s 2 ½ month high at 108.90. This loss of momentum has come with prices testing their 200 day line and until this level is clearly broken the outlook for Thursday remains just cautiously bullish and the call is to buy modestly on the open and then at 108.40, Tuesday’s opening trade with a stop los...
Q4 DEC'20 S&P - ThE Q4 report for technical analysis & trade strategy
Open - 3360.0, 12th Oct 3493.0 target met..Despite the strong Feb-Mar sell-off, for the 7th quarter in a row signals going into Q3 were bullish. These were confirmed as all our topside targets were met with sentiment posting a 2nd higher quarterly low in a row and a gain of 500 Pts. There is the potential for pullbacks, but these should be temporary and the outlook for Q4 remains bullish and the call is to buy only modestly on the open and then at 3198.0, September’s low with a stop loss at 2880.0, a 50% pullback to the Mar-Sep gains. Targets are to 3493.0, September’s open, 3587.0, September’...
WEEKLY DEC'20 DAX - This week's technical analysis & trade strategy
DEC'20 contract - A rising trend of higher monthly lows is positive for sentiment and our bullish forecast for Q3 has been confirmed. However, with sellers returning to the market in September from ahead of 13538.0, the window which has remained open since a weekly close at February’s record high, last week’s signals switched to a bearish bias and the call to stay square on the open and to sell the rally at 13258.0 was moderately successful. Despite closing with an up week, signals for this week continue to point temporarily lower and the call is to sell only modestly on the open and then at 1...
WEEKLY JUN'20 DAX - This week's technical analysis & trade strategy
Jun'20 contract - Having identified the previous 4 week sell-off, last week’s signals were unusual as they pointed to both buying the dip and to selling the rally. This was the correct interpretation as an initial 500 Pt sell-off attracted buyers, but for the rally to attract sellers on Friday and for sentiment to deteriorate by over 600 Pts from the top. This week’s signals are pointing lower, but any pullback should be temporary, so with a good deal of caution the outlook is negative and the call is to sell on the open and then at 9950.0 with a stop loss at 10352.0, the last 3 week Marabuzo ...
DAILY MAR'20 DAX - Thursday's trade idea and technicals
MAR'20 Contract – Bearish signals on the week have been confirmed with initial losses of over 350 Pts. However, with intraday sentiment oversold and buyers returning to the market on Tuesday from close to 13182.0, the 8th Jan Marabuzo line, yesterday’s call was to stay square on the open and to sell the rally. This was the correct strategy, as initial gains were given up and for sentiment to close little changed on the day. Sellers have returned to the market in Asia this morning and with signals continuing to point lower the outlook for Thursday remains bearish and the call is to sell on the ...
DAILY MAR'20 DAX - Tuesday's trade idea and technicals
MAR'20 Contract – This week’s signals are bearish, and these are being confirmed with Monday’s initial 226 Pt sell-off. However, buyers have returned to the market from close to December’s 12880.5 base, sentiment recovering by over 250 Pts from the low. The subsequent formation of a daily Hammer is positive and although the rally may be corrective and temporary the outlook for Tuesday remains bullish and the call is to buy modestly on the open and then at 13137.5, today’s low in Asia with a stop loss at 13040.0. Targets are to 13254.0, a 62% recovery to this year’s sell-off, 13305.0, Friday’s ...
DAILY JUN'19 BUNDS - Wednesday's trade idea and technicals
While weekly signals continue to point higher and to buying dips, Tuesday’s signals switched to temporarily bearish. These were confirmed with sentiment posting a 2nd lower daily high & low in a row and a loss of almost ½ Pt. The pullback is probably temporary profit taking and futures are testing their 13 day average rate and more importantly 166.06, the window which has remained open since the last 2 week close. Until this level is broken the outlook for Wednesday remains just cautiously bearish and the call is to sell on the open and then at 166.74, yesterday’s opening trade with a stop los...
Weekly Bund/Gilts futures techncial analysis forecasts
Contrary to last week's forecast, an extension of the previous week's decline prove limited. Bundsdid trade the bulk of the week beneath the crucial 13 day mvg avg but sentiment was sharplyreversed with Friday’s strong upside that produced a 4th up....read more, including targets, risk and charts, on attached PDF
S&P 500 : poor end of the month?
​Several US sectors reached new lows yesterday. The bearish pressure is still very strong, especially on Financials. After a very poor start of the month, is the American market preparing a very poor end of the month? European banks are also leading prices down. The ECB promise to increase QE did not have much impact. Portuguese yields are not reacting much.
INDICES : short-term break in risk aversion
​US indices are finally bouncing. There is a very high probability that they will end the year at an all-time-high. Risk-appetite indicators show that there will be an improvement in the short-term. In the medium term, risk aversion has been growing slowly since the summer. It should be increasing even further in 2016Q1.
SPOT EURUSD - signals revert to bullish, but look for pullback
​ Although our first downside target was met Wednesday, European trading saw limited movement in EURUSD. But the underlying positive tone, reflected in this week's report, reasserted post FOMC with a powerful move of more than a big figure. This kept the currency pair near the top of a bullish Keltner channel and took the market to new 2 ½ year highs. Of course, the speed and scope of the move means intraday signals for sentiment are overbought, especially after further Asian gains, but it is likely that a probable negative reaction will prove temporary. Therefore, our call for this morning...