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Steve Lucas
- Steve Lucas
Q4 DEC'20 S&P - ThE Q4 report for technical analysis & trade strategy
Open - 3360.0, 12th Oct 3493.0 target met..Despite the strong Feb-Mar sell-off, for the 7th quarter in a row signals going into Q3 were bullish. These were confirmed as all our topside targets were met with sentiment posting a 2nd higher quarterly low in a row and a gain of 500 Pts. There is the potential for pullbacks, but these should be temporary and the outlook for Q4 remains bullish and the call is to buy only modestly on the open and then at 3198.0, September’s low with a stop loss at 2880...
Steve Lucas
- Steve Lucas
WEEKLY DEC'20 DAX - This week's technical analysis & trade strategy
DEC'20 contract - A rising trend of higher monthly lows is positive for sentiment and our bullish forecast for Q3 has been confirmed. However, with sellers returning to the market in September from ahead of 13538.0, the window which has remained open since a weekly close at February’s record high, last week’s signals switched to a bearish bias and the call to stay square on the open and to sell the rally at 13258.0 was moderately successful. Despite closing with an up week, signals for this week...
Steve Lucas
- Steve Lucas
WEEKLY JUN'20 DAX - This week's technical analysis & trade strategy
Jun'20 contract - Having identified the previous 4 week sell-off, last week’s signals were unusual as they pointed to both buying the dip and to selling the rally. This was the correct interpretation as an initial 500 Pt sell-off attracted buyers, but for the rally to attract sellers on Friday and for sentiment to deteriorate by over 600 Pts from the top. This week’s signals are pointing lower, but any pullback should be temporary, so with a good deal of caution the outlook is negative and the c...
Steve Lucas
- Steve Lucas
DAILY MAR'20 DAX - Thursday's trade idea and technicals
MAR'20 Contract – Bearish signals on the week have been confirmed with initial losses of over 350 Pts. However, with intraday sentiment oversold and buyers returning to the market on Tuesday from close to 13182.0, the 8th Jan Marabuzo line, yesterday’s call was to stay square on the open and to sell the rally. This was the correct strategy, as initial gains were given up and for sentiment to close little changed on the day. Sellers have returned to the market in Asia this morning and with signal...
Steve Lucas
- Steve Lucas
Weekly GOLD - This week's technicals and trade idea
A near 60 Pt failed weekly rally to open this year and the formation of weekly and daily Shooting Stars highlights bullish exhaustion and is negative for sentiment. However, the pullback is probably corrective and temporary, and buyers returned to the market last week. Although gains have so far been modest and are testing 1573.6, a 50% recovery to the losses posted since this year’s top, signals for this week continue to point higher and the call is to buy on the open and then at 1558.0, the 13...
Steve Lucas
- Steve Lucas
SEP'17 FTSE - signals continue to point higher
Sep'17 Contract – Bullish signals for FTSE on the week and for Thursday have been confirmed, investors buying futures yesterday to post a 2nd higher daily low & high in a row and a gain of 69 Pts. Although this is positive and there is no sign that demand is ending, daily signals for sentiment are volatile. With this in mind the outlook for Friday is just cautiously bullish and the call is to buy only modestly on the open and then at 7402.0, Thursday’s Marabuzo line with a stop loss at 7370.0, y...
Steve Lucas
- Steve Lucas
DAILY SEP'17 EUROSTOXX - sellers continue to dominate investor sentime...
Sep'17 Contract – This week’s signals for EUROSTOXX have switched to cautiously bullish and to buying the dip. So far though sentiment has remained bearish, Monday’s trading posting a loss of 23 Pts on the day. Although this is negative, futures have remained above the window which has remained open since the last 3 week close at 3403. Overnight reaction to North Korea has altered sentiment however and with signals weakening the outlook for Tuesday is to sell on the open and at 3405 with a stop ...
Steve Lucas
- Steve Lucas
SPOT EURUSD - signals continue to point to buying dips
For the 4th week in succession the EURUSD has traded sideways and is unchanged. More recently prices have been oscillating around their 13 day average rate with no strong intraday trend. Against this background, Thursday’s signals pointed to staying square on the open and to buying the dip. However, sentiment traded sideways inside a small 37 pip range for an unchanged close. Signals are not strong, but while above this week’s low there remains a very cautiously bullish bias and with this in min...
Steve Lucas
- Steve Lucas
SPOT USDJPY - signals show potential for dip buying
Despite Tuesday’s rally ending a sequence of lower daily highs, which is positive for sentiment, yesterday’s signals pointed to selling USDJPY on the rally at 109.75 or down through 109.14. Sellers did in fact return to the market from close to the 13 day average rate, sentiment deteriorating by over ½ Big Fig. Sentiment is unchanged on the week and following last week’s unchanged close trend signals are weak. However, buyers have returned to the market in Asia this morning and while prices rema...
Steve Lucas
- Steve Lucas
SPOT AUDUSD - trend signals weak, but bearish bias
Yesterday’s signals pointed to buying AUDUSD on the dip at .7910. While this was close to the European low, the bounce has been limited and with losses in New York posting a down day. Prices have been oscillating around their 13 day average rate so trend signals are not strong. There is a bearish bias though, so with this in mind the outlook for Wednesday is to sell on the open and then at .7912, today’s high with a stop loss at .7940, yesterday’s opening trade. Targets are to .7869, Friday’s lo...
S&P 500 : poor end of the month?
​Several US sectors reached new lows yesterday. The bearish pressure is still very strong, especially on Financials. After a very poor start of the month, is the American market preparing a very poor end of the month? European banks are also leading prices down. The ECB promise to increase QE did not have much impact. Portuguese yields are not reacting much.
INDICES : short-term break in risk aversion
​US indices are finally bouncing. There is a very high probability that they will end the year at an all-time-high. Risk-appetite indicators show that there will be an improvement in the short-term. In the medium term, risk aversion has been growing slowly since the summer. It should be increasing even further in 2016Q1.
Steve Lucas
- Steve Lucas
Q4 DEC'20 S&P - ThE Q4 report for technical analysis & trade strategy
Open - 3360.0, 12th Oct 3493.0 target met..Despite the strong Feb-Mar sell-off, for the 7th quarter in a row signals going into Q3 were bullish. These were confirmed as all our topside targets were met with sentiment posting a 2nd higher quarterly low in a row and a gain of 500 Pts. There is the potential for pullbacks, but these should be temporary and the outlook for Q4 remains bullish and the call is to buy only modestly on the open and then at 3198.0, September’s low with a stop loss at 2880...
Steve Lucas
- Steve Lucas
WEEKLY DEC'20 DAX - This week's technical analysis & trade strategy
DEC'20 contract - A rising trend of higher monthly lows is positive for sentiment and our bullish forecast for Q3 has been confirmed. However, with sellers returning to the market in September from ahead of 13538.0, the window which has remained open since a weekly close at February’s record high, last week’s signals switched to a bearish bias and the call to stay square on the open and to sell the rally at 13258.0 was moderately successful. Despite closing with an up week, signals for this week...
Steve Lucas
- Steve Lucas
WEEKLY JUN'20 DAX - This week's technical analysis & trade strategy
Jun'20 contract - Having identified the previous 4 week sell-off, last week’s signals were unusual as they pointed to both buying the dip and to selling the rally. This was the correct interpretation as an initial 500 Pt sell-off attracted buyers, but for the rally to attract sellers on Friday and for sentiment to deteriorate by over 600 Pts from the top. This week’s signals are pointing lower, but any pullback should be temporary, so with a good deal of caution the outlook is negative and the c...
Steve Lucas
- Steve Lucas
SPOT EURUSD - signals revert to bullish, but look for pullback
​ Although our first downside target was met Wednesday, European trading saw limited movement in EURUSD. But the underlying positive tone, reflected in this week's report, reasserted post FOMC with a powerful move of more than a big figure. This kept the currency pair near the top of a bullish Keltner channel and took the market to new 2 ½ year highs. Of course, the speed and scope of the move means intraday signals for sentiment are overbought, especially after further Asian gains, but it is...
Steve Lucas
- Steve Lucas
Weekly GOLD - This week's technicals and trade idea
A near 60 Pt failed weekly rally to open this year and the formation of weekly and daily Shooting Stars highlights bullish exhaustion and is negative for sentiment. However, the pullback is probably corrective and temporary, and buyers returned to the market last week. Although gains have so far been modest and are testing 1573.6, a 50% recovery to the losses posted since this year’s top, signals for this week continue to point higher and the call is to buy on the open and then at 1558.0, the 13...
Steve Lucas
- Steve Lucas
DAILY SPOT GOLD - Tuesday's trade idea and technicals
A near 60 Pt failed weekly rally to open this year, followed by last week’s failed modest sell-off has left this week’s signals mixed and neutral. Monday’s trading reflected investor caution, as despite posting a 4th higher daily low & high which is positive for sentiment, the market traded mainly sideways in light volume for a little changed close. Buyers have returned to the market in Asia this morning however and with signals pointing higher the outlook for Tuesday is bullish and the call is ...
Steve Lucas
- Steve Lucas
DAILY Spot Gold - Wednesday's trade idea and technicals
Tuesday’s signals were bearish and pointed to selling the rally at 1548.0. While this was the correct strategy. as initial gains were given up and for a sequence of higher weekly & daily lows to be ended, sentiment traded mainly sideways for only a modest down-day. The sell-off since last weeks near 7 year top at 1611.4 is probably corrective and it is attracting buyers from close to the 13 day average rate. Improving sentiment in Asia has subsequently left a cautiously bullish bias to signals a...
Steve Lucas
- Steve Lucas
DAILY Spot Gold - Wednesday's trade idea and technicals
A 73 Pt sell-off since this month’s near 6 ½ year top at 1557.3 has attracted buyers back to the market from close to 1479.0, a 50% pullback to the entire August gains and this week’s signals have continued to point higher. Tuesday’s signals were also bullish, and these too were confirmed as the dip was bought at the low and for sentiment to rally by 20 Pts. A sequence of higher daily lows has been extended which is positive for sentiment, but with shorter-term signals overstretched there is the...
Steve Lucas
- Steve Lucas
DAILY SPOT GOLD - Thursday's call and technicals
All our weekly targets have been met as in line with daily signals which have continued to point higher, investors bought the market on Wednesday to post a 4th higher daily low & high in a row and a gain of 36 Pts. A fresh over 6 year top at 1510.4 has kept daily signals for sentiment much overstretched and the potential for a profit taking pullback is high. Weakness into the close and modest selling in Asia this morning hasn’t offered a clear bearish reversal pattern, but there is a cautiously ...
Steve Lucas
- Steve Lucas
Alan Collins
- Alan Collins
Alan Collins
- Alan Collins
Weekly Bund/Gilts futures techncial analysis forecasts
Contrary to last week's forecast, an extension of the previous week's decline prove limited. Bundsdid trade the bulk of the week beneath the crucial 13 day mvg avg but sentiment was sharplyreversed with Friday’s strong upside that produced a 4th up....read more, including targets, risk and charts, on attached PDF
Steve Lucas
- Steve Lucas
Steve Lucas
- Steve Lucas
DAILY JUN'19 BUNDS - Wednesday's trade idea and technicals
While weekly signals continue to point higher and to buying dips, Tuesday’s signals switched to temporarily bearish. These were confirmed with sentiment posting a 2nd lower daily high & low in a row and a loss of almost ½ Pt. The pullback is probably temporary profit taking and futures are testing their 13 day average rate and more importantly 166.06, the window which has remained open since the last 2 week close. Until this level is broken the outlook for Wednesday remains just cautiously beari...
Steve Lucas
- Steve Lucas
Steve Lucas
- Steve Lucas