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4X Global Research is a London-based consultancy providing institutional and corporate clients with focused, actionable, independent and connected research on Emerging and G20 fixed income and FX markets and economies.

4X Global Research has a strong forecasting track record, rooted in both a qualitative and quantitative analysis of data, trends, policy decisions and global events. Its conflict-free and unbundled research services aim to give investors a unique edge in their investment decisions. Its exclusive subscription-based reports and consultancy services form the basis of a long-term strategic partnership with its clients.

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Olivier Desbarres
  • Olivier Desbarres
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Market snapshot, theatre of war

Since the Russian army’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24th February most equity markets, government and corporate bond yields, commodity prices (energy, metals and agriculture), CDS spreads and major currencies have recorded significant intra-day volatility and outsized daily moves. Moreover, for all the “noise”, the current geopolitical crisis has accentuated multi-week trends in a number of financial market and economic variables. Price of Brent crude oil, natural gas and gold has risen...

03/08/22 March 8, 2022 12 EN
Olivier Desbarres
  • Olivier Desbarres
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Fed hikes not immune from equity collapse

The Fed is widely expected to hike its policy rate 25bp to 0.25-0.50% (its first since December 2018) at its meeting on , by which point it is due to have ended its asset purchases. Some FOMC members will likely push for a larger 50bp hike. Markets, as of 4th February, were pricing in a total of 120bp hikes in 2022, up from 117bp as of 28th January. In line with our forecast 2-year US Treasury yields have risen to their high since January 2020, albeit with regular and sometimes sizeable pull-b...

02/08/22 February 8, 2022 15 EN
Olivier Desbarres
  • Olivier Desbarres
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Japanese Yen – Myths and realities

The Yen depreciated about 13% versus the US Dollar between 5th January 2021 (a 9-month high) – and 4th January 2022 (a 4-year low) but has since rebounded about 0.7%. The Yen Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER), which provides a more accurate overall picture of Japan’s currency and trade competitiveness and of the risks of imported inflation/deflation, has appreciated about 1%. Yen weakness in past year has been partly due to deterioration in Japan’s goods trade deficit to a still modest 1....

01/28/22 January 28, 2022 11 EN
Olivier Desbarres
  • Olivier Desbarres
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United Kingdom: Inflation without benefits

Consumer demand in the United Kingdom remains modest, which we attribute to a combination of factors. These include still curtailed opportunities to spend on goods (stock constraints) and services (social distancing restrictions), an erosion in real earnings, wealthy households’ low propensity to spend and a paradigm shift in spending habits. We expect falling Covid-19 cases and an ongoing easing of already moderate social distancing rules, including a shorter self-isolation period, and of tra...

01/25/22 January 25, 2022 11 EN
Olivier Desbarres
  • Olivier Desbarres
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Light at the end of long Eurozone tunnel?

Eurozone countries, including Germany, France, Italy and Spain, and the number of deaths since 11th December has either risen materially from the previous corresponding period, albeit from low levels (France, Italy, Portugal and Spain), or been broadly stable (Germany). The majority of Eurozone governments, in a bid to protect health systems, have therefore on the whole adopted a conservative path of least regret in the past six weeks and either maintained or in some cases even intensified str...

01/21/22 January 21, 2022 8 EN
Olivier Desbarres
  • Olivier Desbarres
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Japanese Yen – Myths and realities

The Yen depreciated about 13% versus the US Dollar between 5th January 2021 (a 9-month high) – and 4th January 2022 (a 4-year low) but has since rebounded about 0.7%. The Yen Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER), which provides a more accurate overall picture of Japan’s currency and trade competitiveness and of the risks of imported inflation/deflation, has appreciated about 1%. Yen weakness in past year has been partly due to deterioration in Japan’s goods trade deficit to a still modest 1....

01/28/22 January 28, 2022 11 EN
Olivier Desbarres
  • Olivier Desbarres
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Sterling – Fuel for thought

We turned bullish GBP/EUR in late-June and re-reiterated our constructive view in mid-July and early-August and the cross duly hit a 76-week high of about 1.182 on 11th August. In line with our expectations, historical monthly seasonal patterns were up-ended thanks in part to the positive impact of international travel restrictions on the UK’s tourism balance and the Bank of England turning more hawkish in absolute terms and relative to the ECB. However, since then Sterling has weakened about...

10/01/21 October 1, 2021 13 EN
Olivier Desbarres
  • Olivier Desbarres
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Macro data dog not wagging FX market tail

US macro data, including measures of US inflation, non-farm employment, retail sales, manufacturing output, ISM PMIs and consumer confidence indices, have been far less volatile since the peak in global risk aversion in March-April 2020 when the first national lockdowns decimated global growth. However, volatility in most of these monthly metrics remains high relative to history. This is particularly true for core CPI-inflation, non-farm employment, consumer confidence and the ISM non-manufact...

09/22/21 September 22, 2021 16 EN
Olivier Desbarres
  • Olivier Desbarres
Free Trial

United Kingdom: Inflation without benefits

Consumer demand in the United Kingdom remains modest, which we attribute to a combination of factors. These include still curtailed opportunities to spend on goods (stock constraints) and services (social distancing restrictions), an erosion in real earnings, wealthy households’ low propensity to spend and a paradigm shift in spending habits. We expect falling Covid-19 cases and an ongoing easing of already moderate social distancing rules, including a shorter self-isolation period, and of tra...

01/25/22 January 25, 2022 11 EN
Olivier Desbarres
  • Olivier Desbarres
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What's driving EM and commodity currencies

Currency volatility remains subdued and European currencies, the Chinese Renminbi and even the Brazilian Real and South African Rand, have done little year-to-date. However, a number of developed and emerging market currencies have seen rapid appreciation or depreciation and a number of explanatory factors are likely, going forward, to keep influencing these currencies’ paths. These include the impact of commodity prices on  trade balances, capital account flows, trade-war concerns’ ...

04/13/18 April 13, 2018 10 EN
Olivier Desbarres
  • Olivier Desbarres
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Trading Places

 The rapid escalation in a potential trade war between the United States and China over the past month continues to dominate the headlines despite proposed protectionist measures having yet to take effect. US President Trump argues that the current trading set-up has led to the rapid rise in the United States’ trade deficit with China to a record high of $375bn in 2017 but whether this deficit is simply due to unfair Chinese trading practises is arguably open to debate. What is perhaps less am...

04/11/18 April 11, 2018 9 EN
Olivier Desbarres
  • Olivier Desbarres
Free Trial

Market snapshot, theatre of war

Since the Russian army’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24th February most equity markets, government and corporate bond yields, commodity prices (energy, metals and agriculture), CDS spreads and major currencies have recorded significant intra-day volatility and outsized daily moves. Moreover, for all the “noise”, the current geopolitical crisis has accentuated multi-week trends in a number of financial market and economic variables. Price of Brent crude oil, natural gas and gold has risen...

03/08/22 March 8, 2022 12 EN
Olivier Desbarres
  • Olivier Desbarres
Free Trial

Fed hikes not immune from equity collapse

The Fed is widely expected to hike its policy rate 25bp to 0.25-0.50% (its first since December 2018) at its meeting on , by which point it is due to have ended its asset purchases. Some FOMC members will likely push for a larger 50bp hike. Markets, as of 4th February, were pricing in a total of 120bp hikes in 2022, up from 117bp as of 28th January. In line with our forecast 2-year US Treasury yields have risen to their high since January 2020, albeit with regular and sometimes sizeable pull-b...

02/08/22 February 8, 2022 15 EN
Olivier Desbarres
  • Olivier Desbarres
Free Trial

Light at the end of long Eurozone tunnel?

Eurozone countries, including Germany, France, Italy and Spain, and the number of deaths since 11th December has either risen materially from the previous corresponding period, albeit from low levels (France, Italy, Portugal and Spain), or been broadly stable (Germany). The majority of Eurozone governments, in a bid to protect health systems, have therefore on the whole adopted a conservative path of least regret in the past six weeks and either maintained or in some cases even intensified str...

01/21/22 January 21, 2022 8 EN
Olivier Desbarres
  • Olivier Desbarres
Free Trial

US: High inflation, rising yields, repeat

The will release US CPI-inflation data for December today at 13.30 London time. Consensus forecast is for another set of record-breaking data but US CPI-inflation figures have been volatile since Spring 2021 and thus more difficult to accurately predict. Our take is that US companies have been rapidly raising the prices they charge consumers, particularly for goods, because they have had to – as a result of rising input costs – and importantly because they have been able to without hurting t...

01/12/22 January 12, 2022 14 EN
Olivier Desbarres
  • Olivier Desbarres
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2021’s last (major) roll of the data and policy dice

Markets’ focus has in the past three weeks understandably been on the Omicron variant and the reaction function, present and future, of governments and central banks. The multiplication of social distancing restrictions and acceleration in booster jab programs in many major economies since late-November suggest that policy makers’ conviction that the Omicron variant will prove benign is still quite low. The central bank policy meeting and in particular macro data calendar was reasonably light ...

12/14/21 December 14, 2021 7 EN

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