2018 Election Outlook – Nervous Nineties
A polarized political landscape akin the 90’s with marginalization of PML-N’s grassroot support and swing momentum in favor of the PTI should underpin formation of a coalition Government at the center. Fragmentation within PML-N’s senior ranks and traction of Imran Khan’s led anti-graft movement and accountability drive have given PTI wider national support. Our multi-tier approach - constituency mapping as well as statistical seat prediction/SPM model and Monte Carlo simulation - shows the PTI with the highest seat count (99 lower house seats) across the 272 general seats up for contest. PML-N is expected to fall to half its 2013 tally – the parties core focus region of Central Punjab can hold ground but Northern and Southern Punjab are likely expected to swing. Successfully converting its forecasted lead to form Government at the center, the PTI would need to pair up with coalition partners within the backdrop of enough critical mass available through recent piercing together of nationalist parties and independents to support our outlook for a PTI led Government in 2018. At the same time, the PTI can also optionally band together with provincial and urban centric ethnic parties i.e. the PPPP and MQM – though optically negative given how PTI Chairman Imran Khan’s anti-graft rhetoric has targeted mainstream political party leaderships time and again. For the PML-N to avoid the opposition benches for the next 5 years depends on whether we see the ongoing prosecution against graft intensify bringing within the fold senior leaderships of mainstream parties - the risk of unification under a common persecution theme.
AKD Securities Ltd. is one of the leading securities firm in Pakistan, providing a comprehensive range of investor focused services, including equity brokerage, economic and securities research, investment banking and financial advisory services. AKD Securities accounts for more than 6% of the average daily value of the Karachi Stock Exchange. AKD Securities was the first brokerage house to launch an online trading platform in Pakistan in November 2002 and now has the largest market share with over 6000 customers. This has helped diversify and expand the retail investor base in the country and ushered in a whole new universe of investors to the stock market.
AKD Securities Ltd. caters to a diversified group of domestic and international institutional investors, high net worth individuals and upscale retail clients, including expatriate Pakistanis. With high quality research, unparalleled execution and distribution capability for both regular and large block trades, AKD Securities Ltd. has earned an outstanding reputation in the Pakistani securities industry.Outside of commercial banks, AKD Securities Ltd. is one of the biggest capital market firms in the country. AKD Securities is the leader in raising and providing risk capital in underwriting, market making and mergers and acquisitions in Pakistan. Good corporate governance and professionalism are emphasized throughout the firm and AKD Securities Ltd. is amongst the very few companies to have introduced a firm-wide comprehensive CODE of ETHICS, overseen by an independent compliance manager.Ultimately, our success is based on the quality of service we provide to our customers and the trust and confidence reposed in us by them. Our focus, therefore, remains on customer satisfaction at all levels in the company.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.