Weekly Review
A week of polar opposites, where bullish sentiment from approvals on FDI ventures, offshore drilling, coupled with FM Umar's statements made to placate industrialists propelled the index higher, only to pair-back gains mid-week, due to lack of triggers and concerning macro data points, reflected in the KSE-100 index's closing of 39,307pts, +0.7%WoW. Volumes mimicked investor uncertainty, where average daily turnover during the week stood at 117.9mn shares, down 15%WoW. Additional news flows moving markets included: 1) Fitch Solutions stated that the GoP continues to have little appetite for austerity and painful and necessary economic reforms, which would prolong the current up cycle for Bank advances, 2) SBP reserves fell to $6.9 billion — their lowest level since April 11, 2014 when they hit a trough of $4.984bn, 3) Current account deficit (CAD) slipped by 4.4%YoY to $7.98 billion, driven by a fourth quarter decline of 10%YoY, and 4) Exxon Mobil representatives apprised Petroleum Minister Ghulam Sarwar Khan on the pace of ongoing exploration activity in ultra-deep waters at the offshore Indus G-Block called Kekra-I some 230km off the Karachi coast. Gainers at the bourse included: 1) FFBL (+7.7%WoW), 2) PSMC (+6.5%WoW), 3) NCL (+6.1%WoW) and 4) EFOODS (+5.0%WoW), whereas laggard were: 1) CHCC (-3.3%WoW), 2) POL (-2.8%WoW), 3) PIOC (-2.5%WoW) and 4) DGKC (-2.1%WoW). Volume leaders during the week were: 1) KEL (96.4mn shares), 2) PAEL (46.8mn shares), 3) BOP (41.0mn shares) and 4) TRG (38.2mn shares).
Outlook
In a week where developments on negotiations with the IMF were widely expected, the absence of concrete measures or any firm direction may deteriorate sentiments further. The GoP's much-awaited mini-budget (second since coming to power), and PM Khan's visit to Qatar (to secure concessions along the lines of those secured from UAE and Saudi Arabia) could push sentiment either way, making for a crucial week ahead.
AKD Research
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