Pakistan OMCs_GRMs remain upbeat, Petrol Subsidy not done yet, (AKD Daily, Jun 15, 2022)
AKD Daily
Pakistan OMCs: GRMs remain upbeat, Petrol Subsidy not done yet
- Relatively low refinery production globally (~2mn bbl/d less compared to pre-COVID) and increasing seasonal demand for gasoline moving into the summer have once again sent the refinery margins on the uptrend.
- Even after sharply increasing fuel prices in the previous two petrol price revisions, the authorities have a predicament on their hands once again, due to rising crude and refined product prices globally. Assuming unchanged retail prices, subsidy for Mogas/HSD works out to be ~PkR18/45 for the next fortnight, up 100/95% respectively.
- The PDL collection target for the FY23 is set out to be PkR750bn, up 23%YoY from last years initial estimate. Achieving the desired volumetric targets to ensure collection may be another thing, as there may be slowdowns on the back of (1) higher base effect (2) expected demand pullbacks due to risen fuel prices and (3) lower forecasted GDP growth and crushing budgetary stance for car assemblers/sellers in recent Fed Budget’23.
- Moving forward, refinery profitability is expected to remain elevated in near term as they reap the dual impact of higher refinery yields and increased oil prices. Given high margins, our liking stems towards ATRL majorly due to consistently higher white-product throughput and one of the lowest FO yields (-ve margins) in the sector.
AKD Research
Attock Refinery is engaged in the refining of crude oil and the manufacture of motor gasoline, solvents, jet fuels, kerosene, mineral turpentine, high speed diesel, light diesel oil, jute batching oil, furnace oil, cutback asphalts, paving grade asphalts and LPG. All of its products are consumed locally. Co., through its subsidiary, provides medical services to Attock Group Companies and the general public.
AKD Securities Ltd. is one of the leading securities firm in Pakistan, providing a comprehensive range of investor focused services, including equity brokerage, economic and securities research, investment banking and financial advisory services. AKD Securities accounts for more than 6% of the average daily value of the Karachi Stock Exchange. AKD Securities was the first brokerage house to launch an online trading platform in Pakistan in November 2002 and now has the largest market share with over 6000 customers. This has helped diversify and expand the retail investor base in the country and ushered in a whole new universe of investors to the stock market.
AKD Securities Ltd. caters to a diversified group of domestic and international institutional investors, high net worth individuals and upscale retail clients, including expatriate Pakistanis. With high quality research, unparalleled execution and distribution capability for both regular and large block trades, AKD Securities Ltd. has earned an outstanding reputation in the Pakistani securities industry.Outside of commercial banks, AKD Securities Ltd. is one of the biggest capital market firms in the country. AKD Securities is the leader in raising and providing risk capital in underwriting, market making and mergers and acquisitions in Pakistan. Good corporate governance and professionalism are emphasized throughout the firm and AKD Securities Ltd. is amongst the very few companies to have introduced a firm-wide comprehensive CODE of ETHICS, overseen by an independent compliance manager.Ultimately, our success is based on the quality of service we provide to our customers and the trust and confidence reposed in us by them. Our focus, therefore, remains on customer satisfaction at all levels in the company.
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