CPI Preview_A slain dragon or a sleeping giant
Contrary to market expectations, headline inflation for the month of Feb'18 is expected to clock in at 4.03%YoY, significantly lower than 4.4%/4.2%YoY recorded in Dec'17/Jan'17. The uptick in oil prices for the month (MOGAS/HSD up 3.7%/6.7%MoM) is likely to be restricted by the seasonal downtick in perishable items that is expected to drive down the heavy weight food index (down ~0.9%MoM), reflecting a sequential decline of 0.1%MoM in CPI index. Consequently, 8MFY18 inflation is expected to average out at 3.9%YoY, standing at the same level during 8MFY17. Going forward, inflationary pressures should likely pick up pace deriving strength from: 1) food prices to gain seasonal momentum during Ramadan/Eid season due in May'18, 2) oil prices to settle at higher levels (Arablight expected to average out at US$57/bbl in FY18F vs. US$48/bbl in FY17) and 3) delayed impact of passed through inflation. Within this backdrop, we expect headline inflation to average out at 4.3%YoY/5.5%YoY for FY18F/CY18F.
AKD Securities Ltd. is one of the leading securities firm in Pakistan, providing a comprehensive range of investor focused services, including equity brokerage, economic and securities research, investment banking and financial advisory services. AKD Securities accounts for more than 6% of the average daily value of the Karachi Stock Exchange. AKD Securities was the first brokerage house to launch an online trading platform in Pakistan in November 2002 and now has the largest market share with over 6000 customers. This has helped diversify and expand the retail investor base in the country and ushered in a whole new universe of investors to the stock market.
AKD Securities Ltd. caters to a diversified group of domestic and international institutional investors, high net worth individuals and upscale retail clients, including expatriate Pakistanis. With high quality research, unparalleled execution and distribution capability for both regular and large block trades, AKD Securities Ltd. has earned an outstanding reputation in the Pakistani securities industry.Outside of commercial banks, AKD Securities Ltd. is one of the biggest capital market firms in the country. AKD Securities is the leader in raising and providing risk capital in underwriting, market making and mergers and acquisitions in Pakistan. Good corporate governance and professionalism are emphasized throughout the firm and AKD Securities Ltd. is amongst the very few companies to have introduced a firm-wide comprehensive CODE of ETHICS, overseen by an independent compliance manager.Ultimately, our success is based on the quality of service we provide to our customers and the trust and confidence reposed in us by them. Our focus, therefore, remains on customer satisfaction at all levels in the company.
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