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LUCK-MLCF-PIOC & KOHC 3QFY24 Result Previews ,(AKD Daily Apr 22, 2024)

AKD Daily LUCK-MLCF-PIOC & KOHC 3QFY24 Result Previews LUCK 3QFY24E earnings expected at PkR19.6/sh: Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK) is expected to announce its 3QFY24E financial result on 26th April, 2024, where we expect the company to post standalone earnings of PkR5.7bn (EPS: PkR19.6) compared to PkR6.8bn (EPS: PkR23.1) in the preceding quarter, a decline of 15%QoQ. The said fall in the earnings is primarily attributable to a decrease in the topline amidst low offtakes, coupled with a contraction in gross margins. Topline is expected to clock in at PkR27.8bn, a decline of 9%QoQ, with the total sales volume falling 10%QoQ. Operating expenses are expected to recede by 8%QoQ, due to decrease in the transportation charges resulting from aforementioned fall in the offtakes. Furthermore, other income is expected to increase by 7%QoQ, reaching at PkR3.3bn owing to inclusion of dividend income from LCI (Lucky Core Industries). Lastly, consolidated earnings are expected at PkR52.9/sh compared to PkR60.2/sh in the quarter before. MLCF’s 3QFY24E earnings are expected to clock in at PkR1.4/sh: MLCF is expected to announce its 3QFY24E results on Apr 25th, wherein we expect company to post NPAT of PkR1.5bn (EPS: PkR1.4) vs. earnings of PkR2.2bn (EPS: PkR2.1) in the quarter before (↓ 33%QoQ). The said decline is primarily attributed to lower sales volumes and gross margin contraction. Company's topline is expected to decline by 15%QoQ, amounting PkR15.4bn, driven by a 16% quarterly drop in sales volumes (0.92mn tons vs. 1.10mn tons in 2QFY24). Gross margins are expected to contract by 3.6ppts to 31.7%, due to higher estimated local coal prices post axel load implementation (PkR38.2k/tons vs. PkR37.9k/ton in the preceding quarter). Additionally, finance cost is projected to decline by 18%QoQ due to reduced borrowings. Overall, 9MFY24E earnings are expected to reach PkR5.0/sh, a 13%YoY decline from PkR5.7/sh in SPLY, due to sharp incline in operating expenses amid elevated inflation along with higher financial charges. EPS of PkR5.3 expected in PIOC’s 3QFY24E results: PIOC’s board is scheduled to announce their 3QFY24E result on April 26th, where we expect company to post earnings of PkR1.2bn (EPS: PkR5.3) vs. PkR1.7bn (EPS: PkR7.5) in the quarter before (↓29%QoQ). The said quarterly decline in the earnings is primarily attributable to a fall in the company offtakes. Topline is expected to decrease by 16%QoQ to PkR8.5bn vs. PkR10.1bn in the previous quarter due to aforementioned fall in offtakes that clocked in at 0.56mn tons against 0.67mn tons in the preceding quarter (↓17%QoQ). Gross margins are expected to slightly shrink to 32.8% vs. 34.5% in 2QFY24 due to a slight increase in local coal prices during the quarter. Moreover, financial charges are expected to remain flat QoQ to PkR621mn. That brings 9MFY24E earnings to PkR16.8/sh (up 41%YoY), attributable to expanding gross margins. KOHC - 3QFY24E EPS of PkR9.0 expected: The board of KOHC would announce its 3QFY24E results on 25th April, where we expect the company to report earnings of PkR1.8bn (EPS: PkR9.0) compared to PkR2.2bn (EPS: PkR11.4) in the quarter before, a decline of 21%QoQ. Topline is expected at PkR8.5bn vs. PkR10.4bn in the preceding quarter (↓19%QoQ), primarily due to a 18%QoQ decline in sales volumes to 0.56mn tons vs. 0.69mn tons in 2QFY24. Gross margins are expected to contract by 168bps to 24.5% vs. 26.2% in the previous quarter, primarily due to increase in the power costs. Moreover, other income is expected to decrease by 17%QoQ amid a decline in avg. KIBOR rates. Overall, 9MFY24E earnings are projected to accumulate to PkR31.7/sh vs. PkR27.4/sh in SPLY, up 16%YoY, driven by raise in gross profits and other income.