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Pakistan Strategy_Implications on Pakistan of Afghan regime change, (AKD Daily, Aug 16, 2021)

AKD Daily

Pakistan Strategy: Implications on Pakistan of Afghan regime change

  • In what was a rather swift, seamless and somewhat peaceful transition, the Taliban have exerted control on Afghanistan after a period of 20 years, following departure of US troops from the country. The development finally puts an end to the uncertainty over the political future of Afghanistan.
  • With Pakistan likely being the preferred partner for the West amongst the Russia-China-Pakistan-Iran quartet to keep its influence (in some form) in the region, strengthening of relationship could unlock some concessions in med-to-long run while improving prospects of Pakistan’s status with global agencies (IMF, FATF etc.).
  • Turning to tradeonomics, Pakistan’s net trade with Afghanistan stands at a miniscule US$804mn, mostly consisting of food-related items. More importantly, tight border controls in the near term, could subside the influx of smuggled products from the region, opening up prospects for local players (such as in autoparts (tyres etc.), and consumer items).
  • KSE-100 index is likely to remain range bound in the near term, potentially following global markets where any correction should be taken as an opportunity to accumulate, given the market currently trading at an unjustified P/E of 6.0x. Further, the potential positive idiosyncrasies related to lasting peace in the region may help expand market multiples in the medium and long term.

AKD Research

Underlying
National Bank of Pakistan

National Bank of Pakistan (the Bank) is a Pakistan-based commercial bank. The Bank provides commercial banking services, including commercial loans, investment advisory, asset management, global remittances, agency services, forex, leasing, modarba, underwriting, brokerage, and other banking and financial services. The Bank offers retail products, which include saving deposits, current deposits, housing finance, personal loans and agricultural loans; transaction banking services, which include cash management, trade finance and services, and remittance management; Corporate Finance services, which include deposits, structured corporate finance, capital advisory, investment advisory and trade finance; Treasury services, which include forex and financial derivatives, and government to person (G2P) services, which include pension payments, tax and fee collection, and other payments. The Bank serves its customers in over 20 countries.

Provider
AKD Securities Limited
AKD Securities Limited

AKD Securities Ltd. is one of the leading securities firm in Pakistan, providing a comprehensive range of investor focused services, including equity brokerage, economic and securities research, investment banking and financial advisory services. AKD Securities accounts for more than 6% of the average daily value of the Karachi Stock Exchange. AKD Securities was the first brokerage house to launch an online trading platform in Pakistan in November 2002 and now has the largest market share with over 6000 customers. This has helped diversify and expand the retail investor base in the country and ushered in a whole new universe of investors to the stock market.

AKD Securities Ltd. caters to a diversified group of domestic and international institutional investors, high net worth individuals and upscale retail clients, including expatriate Pakistanis. With high quality research, unparalleled execution and distribution capability for both regular and large block trades, AKD Securities Ltd. has earned an outstanding reputation in the Pakistani securities industry.Outside of commercial banks, AKD Securities Ltd. is one of the biggest capital market firms in the country. AKD Securities is the leader in raising and providing risk capital in underwriting, market making and mergers and acquisitions in Pakistan. Good corporate governance and professionalism are emphasized throughout the firm and AKD Securities Ltd. is amongst the very few companies to have introduced a firm-wide comprehensive CODE of ETHICS, overseen by an independent compliance manager.Ultimately, our success is based on the quality of service we provide to our customers and the trust and confidence reposed in us by them. Our focus, therefore, remains on customer satisfaction at all levels in the company.

Analysts
Hamza Kamal

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