OMCs: Slow month for volume belies market share shifts
POL products continued to soften as Aug'18 total volumetric offtake of 1.35mn tons fell 18%MoM/46%YoY, signifying the slowest month for sales since Feb'07. FO sales remained the major culprit -46%MoM/-79%YoY, while retail fuel segment also tapered (HSD and MOGAS sales recorded -20%MoM/-38%YoY and -1%MoM/-11%YoY). 8MCY18 volumes point to 18%YoY dip in total volumes, where MOGAS was the only catalyst (+3%YoY) while HSD/FO offtake fell -7%/-45%YoY, sapping growth from overall sales. Sizeable shifts in market share (PSO/APL/HASCOL at 8MCY18 shares of 44/10/13% vs. 55/9/10% in 8MCY17) are the norm where smaller unlisted players seem to be taking the charge. In this backdrop, APL offers upsides from its well-heeled financial footing and legacy business franchise, where current levels imply 27.8% total gain inclusive of FY19 D/Y of 11.8%.
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