Pakistan Commodities: Dazed and confused' from global developments,
Recovering from a weak 4QCY18, global commodity prices bounced back as fears of global economic growth remained prominent (IMF pulling 2019 global growth forecast to 3.5%), despite which a spate of geopolitical developments (Venezuela sanctions, China's coal import slowdown) pushed the TRJ Commodities index higher (up 5.8%MoM)
Energy commodities witnessed mixed performance with Crude benchmarks rising (Brent/Arab Light prices up 14.6/14.4%MoM) from US sanctions levied on crude from Venezuela pushing prices for heavy grades, while slowing demand from China kept Coal prices soft (Richard's Bay coal fell 7.1%MoM)
Steel prices remain subdued where the outlook is showing signs of improvement, while Cotton (-3.7%MoM), Urea (-2.4%MoM) and Food (FAO index +1.8%MoM) price indices undergo modest moves as damaging weather events and altered supply chains reflected in prices
While effectively rolling forward and doubling previous oil financing arrangements with Saudi Arabia, the role of the Kingdom in supplying crude (evenly split between UAE and Saudi) is set to solidify with the Crown Prince's visit and inking of agreements to establish a refining complex.
While core food and energy commodities remain in relatively soft territory, any space provided on the external front is significant, while providing a window to enact tough reforms (energy prices, fiscal measures) mandated under any IMF program without exerting undue pressures on consumer purchasing power.
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