Pakistan Economy - Apr’23 CPI - Inflationary pressures yet to recede, (AKD Daily, Apr 28, 2023)
Apr’23 CPI - Inflationary pressures yet to recede
- Headline inflation in the country is expected to clock in at ~36.5%YoY in the month of Apr’23, compared to 35.4%YoY in the previous month, taking the FY23TD average to ~28.1%YoY. Our expectations correspond to a 2.4%MoM increase in CPI.
- As has been the trend in the recent past, headline inflation is being driven by increases in food prices, culminating into a 45.2%YoY increase in the food index during Apr’23.
- Product-wise, according to SPI data released by the PBS, the greatest positive contribution to the index is expected to come from: i) Potatoes (↑32%MoM), ii) Wheat flour bag (↑26.8%MoM), and iii) Bananas (↑25.7%MoM).
- The negative contribution during the month came from: i) Onions (↓42.0%MoM), ii) Tomatoes (↓20.4%MoM), and iii) Garlic (↓7.7%MoM).
- As per the recent push from the IMF, energy tariffs in the country have been increased, which are driving the housing index, expected to post a YoY increase of 25.2% in the month of Apr’23.
- Inflation is expected to remain elevated on a YoY basis in the last two months of the fiscal year, leading us to forecast an average FY23 inflation of 29.3%YoY. This is in line with the SBP’s target of 27%-29% inflation in FY23.
AKD Securities Ltd. is one of the leading securities firm in Pakistan, providing a comprehensive range of investor focused services, including equity brokerage, economic and securities research, investment banking and financial advisory services. AKD Securities accounts for more than 6% of the average daily value of the Karachi Stock Exchange. AKD Securities was the first brokerage house to launch an online trading platform in Pakistan in November 2002 and now has the largest market share with over 6000 customers. This has helped diversify and expand the retail investor base in the country and ushered in a whole new universe of investors to the stock market.
AKD Securities Ltd. caters to a diversified group of domestic and international institutional investors, high net worth individuals and upscale retail clients, including expatriate Pakistanis. With high quality research, unparalleled execution and distribution capability for both regular and large block trades, AKD Securities Ltd. has earned an outstanding reputation in the Pakistani securities industry.Outside of commercial banks, AKD Securities Ltd. is one of the biggest capital market firms in the country. AKD Securities is the leader in raising and providing risk capital in underwriting, market making and mergers and acquisitions in Pakistan. Good corporate governance and professionalism are emphasized throughout the firm and AKD Securities Ltd. is amongst the very few companies to have introduced a firm-wide comprehensive CODE of ETHICS, overseen by an independent compliance manager.Ultimately, our success is based on the quality of service we provide to our customers and the trust and confidence reposed in us by them. Our focus, therefore, remains on customer satisfaction at all levels in the company.
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