Pakistan Economy - FY23 GDP Growth_Divergent from Reality, (AKD Daily, May 26, 2023)
AKD Daily
Pakistan Economy - FY23 GDP Growth Divergent from Reality
- Pakistan’s GDP growth has been provisionally estimated at 0.29%YoY for FY23, compared to revised growth of 6.1%YoY for FY22, according to a release by the PBS. Agricultural sector’s growth is estimated at 1.55% for FY23, as compared to 4.3% in the earlier year, with crop output posting a negative growth of 2.49%YoY. This was largely anticipated in the aftermath of the floods in Aug’22 that ravaged close to a third of the country’s land mass.
- The services sector, which makes up ~58% of the GDP growth calculation, has been estimated to show an increase of 0.86%YoY this year, as compared to 6.59%YoY in FY22.
- GDP growth estimates incorporate a 6.03%YoY increase in the Electricity, Water and Gas supply, whereas data from NEPRA indicates that power generation in the country has dropped by 9.6%YoY to 103,592GWh in 10MFY23.
- With inflation averaging 28.5%YoY during 10MFY23, consumption patterns have been greatly affected. Moreover, the slowdown in the output from the Manufacturing and Agricultural sectors has led to lackluster sales through the services sector.
- With the aforementioned backdrop and the figures furnished by the PBS, GDP growth is likely to come in lower than the estimated figure, with a real possibility of Pakistan posting negative GDP growth in FY23.
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