Pakistan Economy: Tomato-flation kills early easing prospects!, (AKD Daily, Nov 22, 2019)
- The Monetary Policy Committee of the SBP – scheduled to meet later today – is likely to keep policy rate on hold, considering weak FX buffers (import cover of mere 1.8months, estimated NIR: -US$13.2bn) and elevated inflation readings over the medium term (next 3M avg. CPI: 11.81%YoY).
- For Nov’19, we expect the National CPI inflation to jump to 12.34%YoY vs. 11.04%YoY in Oct’19 and 5.70% in Nov’18. This is primarily driven by food inflation (18.5%YoY) and reversal of high base effect, where the former rises following an exorbitant increase in tomato and flour prices due to supply shock (cumulatively contributing 61% in sequential increase).
- While the latest trends indicate a reversal in tomato and flour prices following the authorities’ intervention, near term inflation outlook depends on how quickly the impact of supply shock fades away. We project headline inflation to remain elevated over the medium term (next 3M avg. CPI: 11.81%) aided both by soft base and monthly utility price adjustments.
AKD Research
AKD Securities Ltd. is one of the leading securities firm in Pakistan, providing a comprehensive range of investor focused services, including equity brokerage, economic and securities research, investment banking and financial advisory services. AKD Securities accounts for more than 6% of the average daily value of the Karachi Stock Exchange. AKD Securities was the first brokerage house to launch an online trading platform in Pakistan in November 2002 and now has the largest market share with over 6000 customers. This has helped diversify and expand the retail investor base in the country and ushered in a whole new universe of investors to the stock market.
AKD Securities Ltd. caters to a diversified group of domestic and international institutional investors, high net worth individuals and upscale retail clients, including expatriate Pakistanis. With high quality research, unparalleled execution and distribution capability for both regular and large block trades, AKD Securities Ltd. has earned an outstanding reputation in the Pakistani securities industry.Outside of commercial banks, AKD Securities Ltd. is one of the biggest capital market firms in the country. AKD Securities is the leader in raising and providing risk capital in underwriting, market making and mergers and acquisitions in Pakistan. Good corporate governance and professionalism are emphasized throughout the firm and AKD Securities Ltd. is amongst the very few companies to have introduced a firm-wide comprehensive CODE of ETHICS, overseen by an independent compliance manager.Ultimately, our success is based on the quality of service we provide to our customers and the trust and confidence reposed in us by them. Our focus, therefore, remains on customer satisfaction at all levels in the company.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.