Pakistan Economy_Apr'18 CPI preview , (AKD Daily, Apr 25, 2018)
Previewing headline inflation, we expect Apr'18 reading to clock in at 2.9%YoY, significantly lower than 4.8%/3.2% recorded in Apr'17/Mar'18. The soft inflation reading despite seasonal uptick in house rent (+4.2%YoY) and education cost (+17.8%YoY) is primarily due to high base effect, where heavy weight food index remains largely stable on yearly basis (marginally up 0.1%YoY). Sequentially, CPI index is anticipated to increase by 1.08%MoM with all sub categories registering price increase except transport (down 0.8%MoM on lower fuel prices). On a cumulative basis, 9MFY18 inflation is expected to average out at 3.7%YoY vs. 4.0%YoY in comparable period last year. That said, even with base effect at play in the upcoming month, inflationary pressures are expected to build up going forward on: 1) oil prices at its 3yr high (Arab light at US$68.3/bbl in Apr'18 vs US$52.4/bbl last year), 2) seasonal momentum in food prices during Ramadan/Eid, and 3) pass through inflation on currency depreciation (9.3% in FY18TD). In this backdrop, we expect headline inflation to record at 3.8%YoY/4.8%YoY in FY18F/CY18F vs. 4.15%/4.09% in FY17/CY17.
AKD Securities Ltd. is one of the leading securities firm in Pakistan, providing a comprehensive range of investor focused services, including equity brokerage, economic and securities research, investment banking and financial advisory services. AKD Securities accounts for more than 6% of the average daily value of the Karachi Stock Exchange. AKD Securities was the first brokerage house to launch an online trading platform in Pakistan in November 2002 and now has the largest market share with over 6000 customers. This has helped diversify and expand the retail investor base in the country and ushered in a whole new universe of investors to the stock market.
AKD Securities Ltd. caters to a diversified group of domestic and international institutional investors, high net worth individuals and upscale retail clients, including expatriate Pakistanis. With high quality research, unparalleled execution and distribution capability for both regular and large block trades, AKD Securities Ltd. has earned an outstanding reputation in the Pakistani securities industry.Outside of commercial banks, AKD Securities Ltd. is one of the biggest capital market firms in the country. AKD Securities is the leader in raising and providing risk capital in underwriting, market making and mergers and acquisitions in Pakistan. Good corporate governance and professionalism are emphasized throughout the firm and AKD Securities Ltd. is amongst the very few companies to have introduced a firm-wide comprehensive CODE of ETHICS, overseen by an independent compliance manager.Ultimately, our success is based on the quality of service we provide to our customers and the trust and confidence reposed in us by them. Our focus, therefore, remains on customer satisfaction at all levels in the company.
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