Pakistan Economy_IMF gave an ‘A-grade’ on EFF scorecard, (AKD Daily, Feb 17, 2021)
AKD Daily Pakistan Economy: IMF gave an ‘A-grade’ on EFF scorecard · IMF and the Authorities have concluded staff level agreement — a significant step in reviving the stalled IMF’s EFF program — which would pave way for US$500mn disbursement, taking cumulative disbursements to ~US$2bn (33% of the program). · Examining the end-of-mission press release, the tone of the statement seems to be appreciative of the progress made by the Govt. for sustainable growth. Importantly, the IMF lauded Pakistan’s efforts to comply with FATF standards — a positive where the organization’s plenary session is scheduled on Feb 22-24’21. · Fiscal side continues to be the focus of IMF where the Fund appears accommodative in terms of Pakistan’s FY21 fiscal targets, however, has set target for enhancing revenue base and curtailing exp. including streamlining corporate tax (withdrawal of IT exemption est. at PkR150-200bn — 0.3%-0.4% of GDP is already under consideration by Govt). · The resumption of IMF program is clearly positive from market’s vantage to where improved external account position may potentially sway SBP from pulling the trigger on interest rates. Further, while withdrawal of exemptions would be negative for certain sectors, overall structural theme remains intact where we continue to advocate for Cements, Steel, Power and OMCs (PSO). AKD Research
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