Pakistan Economy_May'17 CPI Preview
​CPI based inflation for May is expected to record at 5.05%YoY, a jump in comparison to 4.78%YoY observed in the preceding month, to reflect the low base effect with sequential increase projected to remain limited (0.05%MoM). The uptick is restricted on the back of an expected sequential dip (-0.21%MoM) in the food index as reflected in SPI trends. Hence, average CPI for 11MFY17 is expected to stand at 4.18%YoY vs. 2.83%YoY for the corresponding period in FY16. Moving ahead, we believe inflation levels will maintain their upward trend, supported by rising global oil prices (Arablight expected to average US$55/bbl for CY17), subsequently pulling the average CPI based inflation for CY17 to 5.1%YoY vs. 3.8%YoY in CY16. Additionally, NFNE Core inflation is projected to average at 5.8%YoY in CY17 (vs. 4.7%YoY in CY16). In accordance with our projections for inflation levels we anticipate an interest rate reversal (hike of 25bps in Nov'17) towards the end of this year, as inflationary pressures are projected to push real interest rates in to the negative zone, lending support to a tighter monetary policy.
AKD Securities Ltd. is one of the leading securities firm in Pakistan, providing a comprehensive range of investor focused services, including equity brokerage, economic and securities research, investment banking and financial advisory services. AKD Securities accounts for more than 6% of the average daily value of the Karachi Stock Exchange. AKD Securities was the first brokerage house to launch an online trading platform in Pakistan in November 2002 and now has the largest market share with over 6000 customers. This has helped diversify and expand the retail investor base in the country and ushered in a whole new universe of investors to the stock market.
AKD Securities Ltd. caters to a diversified group of domestic and international institutional investors, high net worth individuals and upscale retail clients, including expatriate Pakistanis. With high quality research, unparalleled execution and distribution capability for both regular and large block trades, AKD Securities Ltd. has earned an outstanding reputation in the Pakistani securities industry.Outside of commercial banks, AKD Securities Ltd. is one of the biggest capital market firms in the country. AKD Securities is the leader in raising and providing risk capital in underwriting, market making and mergers and acquisitions in Pakistan. Good corporate governance and professionalism are emphasized throughout the firm and AKD Securities Ltd. is amongst the very few companies to have introduced a firm-wide comprehensive CODE of ETHICS, overseen by an independent compliance manager.Ultimately, our success is based on the quality of service we provide to our customers and the trust and confidence reposed in us by them. Our focus, therefore, remains on customer satisfaction at all levels in the company.
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