Pakistan Economy_May’17 CPI Review
​CPI rose slightly from the previous month (4.78%YoY in Apr'17) to record at 5.02%YoY in May'17, coming in line with our expectations. The slight rise in inflation could be attributed to a low base effect (3.2%YoY in May'16) as the sequential rise remained minimal (0.01%MoM in May'17 vs. 1.4%MoM in the preceding month). Notable trends included dip in the food index (-0.26%MoM), slower growth in transport index (0.06%MoM) and jump in the furniture index (0.65%MoM). Resultantly, bringing the 11MFY17/5MCY17 CPI average to 4.17%YoY/4.53%YoY vs. 2.83%YoY/3.73%YoY in 11MFY16/5MCY16. NFNE inflation clocked in at 5.5%YoY in May'17, remaining unchanged from the preceding month and taking 11MFY17 average to 5.14%YoY (vs. 4.13%YoY in 11MFY16). Moving ahead, we expect inflation levels to rise significantly in the coming month with the seasonal effect of Ramadan, however, prices are to be kept in check with the decline in fuel prices brining the average CPI for FY17F at 4.25%YoY vs. 2.9%YoY in FY16. Additionally, we anticipate oil prices to continue their upward trend (Arablight expected to average US$55/bbl for CY17), pulling CPI average for CY17 to 5.1%YoY vs. 3.76%YoY in CY16. In line with our assumptions, NFNE is projected to continue its climb and subsequently average at 5.8%YoY in CY17 vs. 4.7%YoY in CY16.
AKD Securities Ltd. is one of the leading securities firm in Pakistan, providing a comprehensive range of investor focused services, including equity brokerage, economic and securities research, investment banking and financial advisory services. AKD Securities accounts for more than 6% of the average daily value of the Karachi Stock Exchange. AKD Securities was the first brokerage house to launch an online trading platform in Pakistan in November 2002 and now has the largest market share with over 6000 customers. This has helped diversify and expand the retail investor base in the country and ushered in a whole new universe of investors to the stock market.
AKD Securities Ltd. caters to a diversified group of domestic and international institutional investors, high net worth individuals and upscale retail clients, including expatriate Pakistanis. With high quality research, unparalleled execution and distribution capability for both regular and large block trades, AKD Securities Ltd. has earned an outstanding reputation in the Pakistani securities industry.Outside of commercial banks, AKD Securities Ltd. is one of the biggest capital market firms in the country. AKD Securities is the leader in raising and providing risk capital in underwriting, market making and mergers and acquisitions in Pakistan. Good corporate governance and professionalism are emphasized throughout the firm and AKD Securities Ltd. is amongst the very few companies to have introduced a firm-wide comprehensive CODE of ETHICS, overseen by an independent compliance manager.Ultimately, our success is based on the quality of service we provide to our customers and the trust and confidence reposed in us by them. Our focus, therefore, remains on customer satisfaction at all levels in the company.
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