Pakistan Economy_Apr’21 inflation to reach 11.2%YoY, (AKD Daily, Apr 28, 2021)
AKD Daily
Pakistan Economy: Apr’21 inflation to reach 11.2%YoY
- Double-digit inflation is expected to make a comeback in Apr’21 with inflation for the month likely to clock in at 11.2%YoY (13M high), primarily a factor of low base effect. On sequential basis, inflation is likely to be +1.1%MoM (Urban/Rural: 1.15%MoM/1.11%MoM) with food inflation picking up pace for the fourth consecutive month potentially aided by the Ramadan factor, compounded by quarterly revision in housing index.
- While double digit inflation release in 4QFY21 was widely expected, key near term checkpoints defining inflation outlook would be i) FY22 budget, ii) commodity bull-cycle, particularly when major economies consider lockdown as vaccine supply side issues and COVID new variants pose a renewed threat for social costs, and iii) outcome of Govt. negotiations with multilateral/bilateral lending agencies on path of electricity hikes.
- Market is likely to remain volatile in the short term with attention likely to be centered around, i) COVID’s third wave and consequent business disruptions, and ii) budget related news flows.
- We advocate for sectors that fall on structural theme metrics where our preferred sectors are Cements, Steel, and Construction-Allied on construction theme, and Power and select-OMCs (PSO) on possible circular debt clearance.
AKD Research
Pakistan State Oil is a petroleum group based in Pakistan. Co.'s principal activities are the procurement, storage and marketing of petroleum and related products. Co. also blends and markets various kinds of lubricating oils.
AKD Securities Ltd. is one of the leading securities firm in Pakistan, providing a comprehensive range of investor focused services, including equity brokerage, economic and securities research, investment banking and financial advisory services. AKD Securities accounts for more than 6% of the average daily value of the Karachi Stock Exchange. AKD Securities was the first brokerage house to launch an online trading platform in Pakistan in November 2002 and now has the largest market share with over 6000 customers. This has helped diversify and expand the retail investor base in the country and ushered in a whole new universe of investors to the stock market.
AKD Securities Ltd. caters to a diversified group of domestic and international institutional investors, high net worth individuals and upscale retail clients, including expatriate Pakistanis. With high quality research, unparalleled execution and distribution capability for both regular and large block trades, AKD Securities Ltd. has earned an outstanding reputation in the Pakistani securities industry.Outside of commercial banks, AKD Securities Ltd. is one of the biggest capital market firms in the country. AKD Securities is the leader in raising and providing risk capital in underwriting, market making and mergers and acquisitions in Pakistan. Good corporate governance and professionalism are emphasized throughout the firm and AKD Securities Ltd. is amongst the very few companies to have introduced a firm-wide comprehensive CODE of ETHICS, overseen by an independent compliance manager.Ultimately, our success is based on the quality of service we provide to our customers and the trust and confidence reposed in us by them. Our focus, therefore, remains on customer satisfaction at all levels in the company.
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