Pakistan OMC's_Nov'18 Sales bring no good news
- Seasonal weakness remained aggravated by slowing commercial demand amidst the continued closure of FO fired generation base weighing down Nov'18 POL product sales, amounting to 1.28mn tonnes (-22%MoM/-33%YoY), a five year low.
- FO continued to recede -52%MoM/-70%YoY, while supply chain constraints, grey market sales (particularly in HSD), elevated product prices and refinery disruptions (FO storage volumes at capacity) kept MOGAS/HSD volumes lower (-16%/-20%MoM and -8%/-32%YoY), sapping industry volumes (ex-FO industry volumes fell 23%YoY).
- Total POL sales volumes for major OMCs moved -27%/-12%/-41/-24%YoY for PSO/APL/HASCOL/SHEL and -27%/-21%/-32/-20%MoM, highlighting the tenuous operational situation of listed downstream player, while smaller foreign-backed players gain share (4 major smaller players at cumulative share of 11% vs. 4% in Nov'17).
- Lack of reduction in ex-refinery component of Dec'18 retail fuel prices makes us apprehensive of retail prices sliding anytime soon (PkR weakness and higher crack spreads in HSD) where we advocate sticking to sturdy business models (offtake and supply from related parties) while avoiding highly levered (PSO and HASCOL) players, leaving APL as out top pick in the space (TP of PkR650/sh with FY19 D/Y of 7.3%).
Pakistan State Oil is a petroleum group based in Pakistan. Co.'s principal activities are the procurement, storage and marketing of petroleum and related products. Co. also blends and markets various kinds of lubricating oils.
AKD Securities Ltd. is one of the leading securities firm in Pakistan, providing a comprehensive range of investor focused services, including equity brokerage, economic and securities research, investment banking and financial advisory services. AKD Securities accounts for more than 6% of the average daily value of the Karachi Stock Exchange. AKD Securities was the first brokerage house to launch an online trading platform in Pakistan in November 2002 and now has the largest market share with over 6000 customers. This has helped diversify and expand the retail investor base in the country and ushered in a whole new universe of investors to the stock market.
AKD Securities Ltd. caters to a diversified group of domestic and international institutional investors, high net worth individuals and upscale retail clients, including expatriate Pakistanis. With high quality research, unparalleled execution and distribution capability for both regular and large block trades, AKD Securities Ltd. has earned an outstanding reputation in the Pakistani securities industry.Outside of commercial banks, AKD Securities Ltd. is one of the biggest capital market firms in the country. AKD Securities is the leader in raising and providing risk capital in underwriting, market making and mergers and acquisitions in Pakistan. Good corporate governance and professionalism are emphasized throughout the firm and AKD Securities Ltd. is amongst the very few companies to have introduced a firm-wide comprehensive CODE of ETHICS, overseen by an independent compliance manager.Ultimately, our success is based on the quality of service we provide to our customers and the trust and confidence reposed in us by them. Our focus, therefore, remains on customer satisfaction at all levels in the company.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.