Pakistan Strategy: Brexit two years on - still calm & carrying on
With an increasing likelihood of a 'hard' or 'no-deal' Brexit on the cards, we present possible implications on exports of key domestic segments, underpinned by the GSP+ arrangement under which we secure concessionary export terms (tariff concessions, mostly 0% on imports) to the world's largest trading bloc
Additionally we look at possible repercussions on Pakistan's growth cap (scheme allows maximum export growth of 14.5% p.a.) where UK's exit could inhibit growth in textile (particularly apparel) and food commodity exports to the EU (export growth now limited to remaining EU countries)
Lastly we look at UK's role in Pakistan's remittance mix, where its rising share has been a factor of declines witnessed in MENA sourced inbound remittances, where clear risks from a cliff-edge or hard Brexit remain (no-deal or without modified withdrawal agreement, pulling UK economy into a general slowdown)
While Governments on all sides of the English Channel are faced with stark choices, we opine that trading arrangements with Pakistan and the UK are likely to remain stable, with possible tailwinds arising under a UK approved GSP or liberal MFN regime
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