Pakistan Strategy - Rejoice, for the IMF is finally here! (AKD Daily, Jul 13, 2023)
AKD Daily
Pakistan Strategy - Rejoice, for the IMF is finally here!
- Rejoice, for the IMF is finally here! While Pakistan’s staff level agreement (SLA) for the SBA caught everyone off-guard, Board approval for the same had widely been expected.
- Overall, the SBA has been approved by the lender’s executive board for US$3bn (SDR2,250mn), with US$1.2bn (SDR894mn) set to be disbursed immediately.
- After securing endorsement from the IMF, the country will be able to mobilize further funding from bi-lateral, multi-lateral and other sources which will help shore up FX reserves
- The IMF’s targets portend a challenging year ahead, particularly with respect to primary account. We believe GoP may find it hard to depict a surplus of 0.4%, while IMF’s average inflation at 26% is significantly above our expectation of avg. 21.4%
- On the market side, with FX reserves firming up, consequent improvements in the PkR/US$ parity, GoP having announced elections and a still sub 3x market P/E to result in a cautiously optimistic view going ahead
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